Following a 34-10 loss to the Giants on Sunday, the Raiders fell to 2-14 and are close to locking up the first overall selection. During their loss to the Giants, Raiders quarterback Geno Smith suffered what head coach Pete Carroll described as a high ankle sprain, which would likely cause Smith to be out vs the Chiefs in week 18 likely ending his Raiders career. Smith completed 20 of 28 attempts for 176 yards, a touchdown, and 2 interceptions vs the Giants bringing his season statline to a 67.6% completion rate, 3025 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions. His 17 interceptions lead the NFL, and pending on week 18 look to possibly stay that way while also being the 2nd worst mark in Smith’s career since his 2013 rookie season where he tossed 21 interceptions with the Jets on an 8-8 season. Additionally, Smith ranks 30th in EPA/pass, total EPA while having the NFL’s seventh worse turnover worthy play rate at 3.1% and his 3.8% big time throw rate is 31st as well. His 6.4 average depth of target is 41st of 42 qualified quarterbacks and he also sports a 2.81 time to throw (18th), and he’s 4th in the NFL in terms of QB generated pressures allowed. Smith has been under duress frequently this season with the NFL’s 2nd worst pressure to sack rate at 26.4% and he’s been pressured the 9th most at 204 times while sacked the most at 55 on the season.
A high ankle sprain is a tough recovery and likely will put Smith out this week vs Kansas City which would put former first rounder Kenny Pickett in line to start vs the Chiefs with the Raiders first overall pick on the line. Pickett hasn’t seen much time this season, though in his career he’s struggled often which has put him on his 4th team in four seasons, and third in the last 8 months. In addition to Pickett, Aidan O’Connell or possibly rookie Cam Miller could earn a chance to start though Vegas will likely keep to Pickett with Pete Carroll potentially coaching for his job this weekend. Geno Smith is set to hold a 26.5 million cap hit in 2026, though Las Vegas can release him to save 8 million with an 18.5 million dead cap hit though his 8 million will guarantee on the 3rd day of the league year in 2026.
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