NFL Week 18 Betting: Best early bets before lines move
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Week 17 is nearly a wrap, and betting lines are now available for Week 18. Here are our favorite early spread picks for the slate.
Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) [Total: 43.5]
Best Bet: Panthers +3
The NFC South comes down to this. Neither the Buccaneers nor the Panthers was able to secure a crucial victory in Week 17, leaving this matchup to decide the division. (Another scenario, in which the Falcons win their final two games and force a three-way tie atop the division, could render the Buccaneers-Panthers contest moot, though.)
While it was somewhat expected that the Panthers (+7) would have difficulties with the NFC-leading Seahawks, the Buccaneers (-6) unexpectedly fell flat as road favorites in Miami. The latter result leaves some room for doubt that Tampa Bay should be laying a full field goal with the division crown on the line.
The Panthers claimed the outright victory as three-point home underdogs in the first matchup between these two teams just eight days ago, adding to the Buccaneers’ 0-8 record against the spread since the start of November.
Tampa Bay’s offensive effectiveness has dwindled down the stretch, with the team settling in the bottom third of the league in yards per play (4.9) and turnovers (10) since Week 10. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has put the ball in danger frequently this season, recording the second-most turnover-worthy plays (23) in the NFL. He added another three to his total against the Dolphins in Week 17.
Carolina’s ability to play teams closely generally hinges on an ability to find takeaways. Since Week 12, the Panthers have forced 19.1% of opposing drives to end in a turnover, the highest rate in the NFL. Panthers cornerbacks Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson have combined for nine interceptions this season, the most by a cornerback tandem in the NFL. If Mayfield gets careless with the football, expect those two to take advantage.
