Outside of the NFC West title race and the battle for the NFC’s No. 1 seed, Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has been in the MVP conversation throughout the season. For much of the year, Stafford has led that discussion, but New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye hasn’t been far behind and has been a primary contender in that race.
However, following a blown 16-point lead against the Seahawks and the results from Week 17, the Rams have been eliminated from the NFC West race and the NFC’s No. 1 seed. The only ‘race’ remaining is Stafford’s race for MVP. While those in the Rams fanbase may believe that Stafford is a clear front-runner, it is much closer than some would like to think.
As mentioned, the race for MVP likely comes down to Stafford or Maye. While Josh Allen entered the conversation for a bit, Stafford is -225 to win MVP and Maye is +180. Way behind both is Allen at +10000. Maye leads the NFL in EPA per dropback, passer rating, and yards per attempt.
MVP may be an individual award, but team success certainly plays a role in that conversation. For the first time since 2017, the Patriots won 13 games under Maye and also won the AFC East. With a win and Broncos loss in Week 18, Maye will lead the Patriots to the AFC’s No. 1 seed. However, the big key there is that Maye led his team to a division title.
Contrarily, the Rams cannot win the NFC West. That looms large in any MVP discussion. Since 2000, there have been just four instances of the MVP award being given to a player who did not win their division. Those were Adrian Peterson in 2012, Peyton Manning in 2008, Steve McNair in 2003, and Marshall Faulk in 2000. Manning in 2008 was also the last quarterback to win and not be the No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the conference.
The 2008 Colts went 12-4, losing the division to the 13-3 Tennessee Titans. Among teams with a winning record, Manning clearly had the better numbers. Manning was the only quarterback in 2008 to throw for 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns to have a winning record. Drew Brees threw for 5,000 yards, but the New Orleans Saints went 8-8 and finished last in the NFC South.
In 2008, Tom Brady tore his ACL and the biggest competition for Manning was Chad Pennington and Phillip Rivers. Pennington led the Dolphins to an 11-5 record and AFC South title, but threw just 19 touchdowns. Rivers had 4,000 yards and 34 touchdowns, but the Chargers won the AFC West title at just 8-8.
The competition for Stafford is much better this year. Even if Maye is Stafford’s biggest competition, he still has over 4,200 yards and 30 touchdowns with fewer than 10 interceptions. He’s not having a statistically bad year by any means and he has the Patriots at 13-3.
It’s also hard to say that Stafford didn’t have opportunities to win the division. Stafford had the Rams in position to tie the Carolina Panthers at the end of regulation and fumbled. In the fourth quarter against the Seahawks, the offense went three-and-out three times. Stafford had the ball at midfield with a minute left and threw three consecutive incomplete passes. How much sympathy will voters have for Stafford putting the Rams in position to win against the Eagles, 49ers, and Seahawks, but his team failing him? Stafford did throw a potential game-winning touchdown in overtime and left the field with the lead before ultimately losing.
For much of his career, Stafford has missed out on individual awards because of the lack of team success. Since joining the Rams, that hasn’t been a problem as Stafford has made two Pro Bowls, won a Super Bowl, and made the playoffs four times. However, this is the first time that the Rams may have somewhat failed Stafford. If Stafford doesn’t win MVP, it will be because special teams allowed two blocked game-winning field goals against the Eagles, Kyren Williams fumbled against the 49ers, and the defense allowed a touchdown drive and two-point conversion against the Seahawks in overtime.
Stafford still needs to just focus on his game over the final two weeks. With three touchdown passes against the Falcons, Stafford can tie Tom Brady for the second-most touchdown passes in a single season by a QB age 37-or-older in NFL history. With three touchdowns and a passer rating of 110-or-higher, Stafford can become just the fourth quarterback to accomplish that four or more times in a single season.
At the end of the day, Stafford likely doesn’t care about the MVP as much as he does about simply winning. It’s an individual award and a resume builder, but Stafford can also do that by winning a second Super Bowl. However, by not winning the NFC West, the Rams may have cost Stafford his best shot at the prestigious award.
