The Carolina Panthers are playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers next week for the NFC South title and the winner could end up hosting the Los Angeles Rams in the wild card round of the playoffs. Kind of. There’s a chance that next week’s game between the Panthers and Bucs is not an outright division title game and that’s actually going to be decided in part by the Rams.
The Rams could be the reason that Baker Mayfield fails to take the Bucs to the playoffs for a third season in a row, although that’s not what Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford wants to happen:
If the Falcons win their last two games, starting with Monday night against the Rams, then the Panthers will win the NFC South no matter what happens in Week 18. The Bucs will be eliminated even if they beat Carolina.
Let me explain:
Although the winner of the Panthers-Bucs game will probably win the NFC South, that is only guaranteed if the Atlanta Falcons don’t win their final two games. How is that possible when the Falcons have already been eliminated from postseason contention?
- If the Bucs beat the Panthers next week, then the Bucs and Panthers will both finish the season at 8-9.
- If the Falcons win their last two games, they will also finish 8-9.
When three or more division teams finish with the same record, then the tiebreaker goes to head-to-head, and that favors the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers are currently 3-0 against the Falcons and Bucs. Even losing to Tampa Bay next week wouldn’t matter: The Panthers would win the NFC South and host the 5-seed in the playoffs, which is tracking to be the L.A. Rams.
Bryce Young IN, Baker Mayfield OUT
However, if the Rams beat the Falcons and the Bucs beat the Panthers next week, then the most likely outcome would be the Rams going to Tampa Bay in the wild card round; in a way, the Rams control their destiny in that they might go to either Carolina or Tampa Bay depending on whether they beat the Falcons.
Would you rather face the Bucs or the Panthers in the wild card? Let us know in the comments.
Of course, if the Rams do lose to the Falcons then they might not even be the 5-seed at all. In fact, a loss on Monday makes it more likely that the Rams will slip to the 6-seed if the 49ers end up winning the NFC West. If the Seahawks win the NFC West, then the Rams should still be the 5-seed.
To wrap that up:
- If the Rams beat the Falcons, NFC South title game is Bucs-Panthers Week 18
- If the Rams beat the Falcons, LA is probably going to winner of NFC South in the playoffs
- If the Rams beat the Falcons, Baker Mayfield has a good shot to win the division + host LA
- If the Rams LOSE to the Falcons, then the Panthers are more likely to win the NFC South
- If the Rams LOSE to the Falcons, then Rams could end up going to Philly (or Chicago)
- If the Rams LOSE to the Falcons, they could finish 3rd in the NFC West
What should be an otherwise meaningless game for the NFC South title winner, somehow MNF could actually make the “division title” game moot. Although the Bucs and Panthers can’t know if the game is moot by Monday night — the Falcons also need to beat the Saints in Week 18 — an Atlanta wins dramatically changes the drama of their game next week.
The Rams desperately want to beat the Falcons regardless of how it impacts other teams. But this strange wrinkle in the stakes of the game make it more interesting in terms of what the first round of the playoffs will look like.
