The Coal Bowl arrives just in time for the holidays: the New York Giants vs. the Las Vegas Raiders. The Grinch descends on Sin City as two despondent 2–13 teams meet, each desperate to snap impressively long losing streaks. Both teams have dropped nine straight games, with the Raiders losing 13 of their last 14.
There are serious stakes in this game. The winner of this game will significantly improve their odds of securing the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft—a prize the Giants currently hold.
If the Giants leave Las Vegas with a victory, their chances of securing the first overall pick would drop to just 6%. Unfortunately, the draft has become the primary storyline surrounding this matchup—but that’s the reality the Giants have repeatedly faced in recent years as their seasons wind down.
The Giants are coming off a 16–13 loss to the Vikings, a game in which Jaxson Dart and the offense looked lost. Halloween may be long gone, but the unit saw ghosts all afternoon. Meanwhile, the Raiders pushed the then 9–5 Texans to the brink in Houston. The return of Geno Smith brought new life to the offense, but Las Vegas ultimately fell 23–21 despite a strong performance from rookie running back Ashton Jeanty, who rushed for 128 yards on 24 carries.
Houston’s offense was stifled for much of the game by a familiar face—Raiders defensive coordinator Patrick Graham. Graham, along with offensive line coach Carmen Bricillo, facing their former team, adds a fun subplot to what many would label the league’s latest iteration of the “toilet bowl.”
Raiders statistics
The Raiders’ defense has surrendered the eighth-most points per game (25.7), while the Giants have allowed the sixth-most, giving up an average of 27.5 points per contest. The Raiders rank 15th in yards surrendered with 326.1 yards per game. Las Vegas allows 116.5 rushing yards per game (17th in the league), and they’re also 17th in passing yards allowed per game (209.7 passing yards per game).
Las Vegas ranks 21st in red-zone touchdown percentage at 59.65%, and they have the league’s worst third-down defense, surrendering the sticks at a 48.74% rate. The Raiders blitz at a 20.5% rate and get pressure on just 18% of snaps. Las Vegas ranks third in missed tackles with 116. Patrick Graham runs a similar defensive structure with hybrid fronts and a mixture of softer zones that surrender check-downs and expect defenders to rally and tackle.
The matchup
Edge defender Maxx Crosby is the best player on the team. He receives a lot of attention and may be in for quite the game against Jaxson Dart, since the Giants will likely be without star left tackle Andrew Thomas. Crosby has 53 pressures on the season. He has 10 sacks and an insane 28 tackles for a loss with 46 STOPs, which leads the edge defenders and defensive linemen.
Crosby mostly aligns on the left side of the defense, so he’ll see a lot of his former teammate, Jermaine Eluemunor. But he does kick to the defensive right side in advantageous matchups, so we may see that shift against rookie tackle Marcus Mbow. New York will likely use 12 personnel and a tight end or chipping running back to that side to prevent a Crosby takeover.
Former top-10 pick Tyree Wilson is second on the team in pressures with 28, and Malcolm Koonce has 24. Beyond Crosby, there isn’t a massive threat at edge or on the defensive line. Jonah Laulu, Adam Butler, and Tonka Hemingway earn snaps on the front as well.
I do want to see Mike Kafka open up the offense, but the injuries on the offensive line may lead him to lean on the run a bit more and then work the play-action — something Kafka rarely did against Brian Flores and the Vikings last week.
Devin White and former Jets’ safety Jamal Adams are the two linebackers in the middle of the defense, with Elandon Roberts operating frequently as the WILL linebacker. Roberts and Adams are on the backend of their careers, and White is still just 27 (this is his seventh season). Crosby had a verbal spat with White a few weeks back for not setting the edge on the goal line. White leads the team with 55 STOPs.
The secondary consists of former Packers’ first-round pick Eric Stokes and big physical rookie out of Iowa State, Darien Porter, operating as the outside cornerbacks. Safety Jeremy Chinn plays safety for the Raiders; a big physical hitter who may struggle to match Wan’Dale Robinson. Lonnie Johnson and Isaiah Pola-Mao play safety for the Raiders, with the former playing more snaps in recent weeks — he set his highest snap total last week with 45.
Stokes is playing well. The 26-year-old has allowed just a 55.6% catch rate on 45 targets, and he’s knocked four balls away. Darius Slayton and Isaiah Hodgins will likely see a lot of Stokes. Porter has allowed a 60.7% catch rate on 28 targets. Chinn has allowed a 77.1% catch rate in the slot — the Giants may continue to lean on choice routes to Wan’Dale Robinson in the slot.
Although the Raiders’ defense isn’t terrible, I expect the Giants to generate some offense against them. And if the Giants fail to do so, it calls a lot into question, especially after the dismal last few games under Mike Kafka’s leadership. I do expect Kafka to put more on Dart in this game, even with the injuries up front. The Giants will have multiple sets of eyes on Crosby, of course.
Kafka should become more balanced against the Raiders and loosen the reins on Dart. I understood what he was thinking last week, but the Raiders are a defense that the passing attack should be able to compete against.
Final thoughts
The Giants and Raiders — what a showdown! It’s an important game for draft seeding, and I expect the Giants to compete, but the Raiders will break their nine-game losing streak and defeat the Giants, which will almost certainly lock up the first overall selection in the draft for New York.
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