PFF Grades and Data: Key insights for the Christmas Day NFL games
- Dak Prescott is pushing to become the NFL’s passing yards leader for the first time in his career: Prescott will get a favorable matchup against a Commanders defense allowing a league-high 8.3 yards per pass attempt this season.
- With their playoff hopes on the line, the Lions will need to reestablish the run game: Jahmyr Gibbs has traditionally been at his best against the Vikings. Over his career versus Minnesota, he’s averaged 5.2 yards per carry and 3.5 yards after contact per attempt, consistently creating extra yardage on his own. His 24 missed tackles forced on rushing attempts are also the most by any running back against the Vikings since the start of the 2023 season.
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NFL Week 17 is here, and with it comes a fresh wave of advanced data and analysis.
PFF’s media research team has been hard at work this week, preparing for kickoff — pulling data-driven insights and talking points for our broadcast partners around the league. Now, we’re sharing those same nuggets with you. So, whether you’re looking to win your fantasy matchup, hit on your bets or just get smarter about the game, these are the key storylines to know for every Week 17 contest.
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Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders
Dak Prescott is pushing to become the NFL’s passing yards leader for the first time in his career, and he’ll get a favorable matchup against a Commanders defense allowing a league-high 8.3 yards per pass attempt this season.
A key area where Dallas can exploit Washington is between the numbers. Prescott’s 2,081 passing yards in that part of the field are the second-most among all quarterbacks, while the Commanders are giving up 9.6 yards per attempt between the numbers, which ranks 31st in the NFL.
An encouraging development for Washington’s defense was the return of Drake Jackson, who made his first NFL appearance since Week 8 of the 2023 season (when he was with the 49ers).
Jackson made an immediate impact in his Commanders debut, generating three pressures on just seven pass-rush snaps, an impressive early flash as he works his way back into the rotation.
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
With their playoff hopes on the line, the Lions will need to reestablish the run game — and that starts with Jahmyr Gibbs after he posted a career-low 2 rushing yards last week against the Steelers.
Gibbs has traditionally been at his best against the Vikings. Over his career versus Minnesota, he’s averaged 5.2 yards per carry and 3.5 yards after contact per attempt, consistently creating extra yardage on his own. His 24 missed tackles forced on rushing attempts are also the most by any running back against the Vikings since the start of the 2023 season.
Aaron Jones turned in a vintage performance in the Vikings’ win over the Giants in Week 16. Jones rushed for a season-high 85 yards with 57 yards after contact, also a season best for the veteran running back.
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
Garett Bolles has been playing at an elite level for Denver this season. His 600 pass-blocking snaps without allowing a sack are the most in the NFL among left tackles, and his 2.8% pressure rate allowed is not only the best at the position but also the second-lowest mark of his career in a single season.
This week, George Karlaftis will look to test that edge. Across 36 career pass-rush matchups against Bolles, Karlaftis has generated four total pressures, including one sack, making this one of the premier trench battles on the slate.
When Kansas City has the ball, they’ll be dealing with one of the NFL’s most relentless pass-rushing units. The Broncos lead the league with 80 quarterback hits this season, and Zach Allen has been the driving force — his 33 QB hits are also the most in the NFL.
Allen’s production isn’t just a one-year spike, either. Over the past four seasons, his 90 quarterback hits are the most of any defensive player.
