Happy Holidays, and welcome to Week 17 – the Championship round of the Fantasy Football Playoffs! If you made it this far, congratulations. One big Christmas present (or stocking full of coal) awaits.
But you’ll need to be patient. Like it or not, the Week 17 games are staggered, with three games on Christmas Day, two more on Saturday, eight on Sunday, and one on Monday. It could be an agonizing wait for fantasy managers, and especially against the backdrop of holiday commitments and distractions. Trust me on this: The important people in your life aren’t going to understand. Time to spike the eggnog.
The biggest story of Week 16 was the two absolutely bonkers finishes in pivotal NFC West and North division games on Thursday and Saturday nights. I feel like Jack Buck – I can’t believe what I just saw, twice. But the Seahawks and Bears did in fact both pull off miracle fourth quarter comebacks in front of their ecstatic home fans. I’m sure that the overtime points scored in those games ended up swinging some semi-final matchups.
From a fantasy standpoint, a big story heading into this final week is a bunch of fresh quarterback injuries. Five quarterbacks were knocked out of games in Week 16 and amazingly, Jaxson Dart wasn’t one of them, although you wouldn’t know it from his stat line. There are multiple second and third string QBs that will be running NFL offenses this week (some of whom have no business doing so), wreaking havoc for fantasy managers. More on this later.
Stats of the Week:
- The streak continues: Mike Tomlin has not had a losing record in any of his 19 seasons as an NFL Head Coach (all with the Steelers).
- The Eagles are the first team to repeat as NFC East champions in two decades.
- Miasma in the Meadowlands: The Giants and Jets have a combined record of 5-25.
- The 2-13 Giants and 12-3 Patriots have the same number of wins (2) against teams that currently have a winning record.
- The Bears have won six games this season where they trailed inside the final two minutes of regulation (that’s the most in a season in the Super Bowl era).
- In their two meetings this season: Rams 58, Seahawks 57, Rams 830 total yards, Seahawks 829 total yards.
- The Rams are the first team in NFL history to lose a game where they had 500+ yards of offense, committed zero turnovers, and forced 3+ turnovers. The Rams have also rolled up 500+ yards of offense in three straight games.
- Last stat from this game (there are a lot): Before Thursday, the Rams were 323-1 all-time when leading by 15+ points in the fourth quarter, and the Seahawks were 0-172 all-time when trailing by 15+ points in the fourth quarter.
- The 49ers have not punted in the month of December.
- The Giants have turned the ball over on downs inside the red zone ten times this season (that’s the most by any team in a season in this century).
- Chase Brown scored three touchdowns in just over six minutes of game time in the Bengals’ rout of the Dolphins.
- The Lions had 15 rushing yards at home against Pittsburgh (the Steelers had 230), and the Giants had 13 net passing yards at home against the Vikings.
Fantasy Stat of the Week:
- Josh Allen, the No. 1 fantasy scorer this season and the No. 1 or No. 2 fantasy scorer in each of the five seasons before that, put up 6.9 fantasy points in Week 16, in a game the Bills won. That’s his lowest weekly score in the last three seasons. If he let you down don’t be too mad. It happens, and he’s a big part of what got you to the semis.
Week 17, here we go!
Bye Weeks: NONE
Week 17 Rides, Fades, and Sleepers
I’m tweaking my normal format this week. It’s the fantasy championships! Your lineup is probably pretty set. Instead of going over lots of players who few people have questions about, I’m going to try to focus on some less obvious players that I’m higher and lower on this week, and some of the toughest calls fantasy managers might be considering. Half PPR scoring and Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) are used for the column.
I’ll still pick a Ride, Fade,and Sleeper of the Week. The rules: The Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade can’t be someone who nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper must be from down in the rankings.
My Rides, Fades, and Sleepers in Week 16 were not my best effort this season. Sorry. I had been on fire for a month before that. You can check my work here: Week 16.
Ride of the Week: Rhamondre Stevenson (@NYJ). The Patriots have a shot at the #1 seed, and I don’t see them taking their foot off the gas against the lowly Jets in Week 17, or Miami in Week 18. The Jets are a mess, and this is unlikely to be a competitive game. I doubt TreVeyon Henderson (concussion) will be able to play this week, which sets Stevenson up for an RB1 workload in a cake matchup. The Jets have allowed the fifth most fantasy points per game (FPPG) to opposing RBs, and they’ve been decidedly worse lately, after trading away stout DT Quinnen Williams. Stevenson is ranked as the RB15 this week and I have him as a borderline Top-10 play.
Fade of the Week: Rico Dowdle (vs. SEA). Remember those halcyon days when Dowdle was racking up 200 yards per week and looking like a waiver wire league winner? Well, those days are over. Dowdle hasn’t topped 60 yards on the ground in six straight outings, and he’s run for less than 3.5 yards per carry in all but one of those games. He’s still getting more work than Chuba Hubbard, but it’s an annoying split nonetheless and especially with Carolina suddenly being inefficient running the ball. Throw in a bad matchup (seventh fewest FPPG allowed to opposing RBs) and I’m leaving Dowdle out of my lineup this week if I have a decent pivot.
Sleeper of the Week: Taysom Hill (@TEN). Is this a thirst trap? In Week 12, Alvin Kamara got hurt and Hill came off the bench to lead the team in carries. The following week, he got exactly one rushing opportunity, as Devin Neal took over. Neal is now on IR, so this situation is different. Hill led the Saints with 12 carries in Week 16 and he also caught four passes and threw a TD pass. The key question is whether Kamara can return to the lineup this week. If he can’t, expect another busy game for the Swiss Army knife. Kamara didn’t practice at all last week, and the Saints have nothing to play for, so Hill being ranked outside the Top-15 TEs this week seems low. If you need a TE, at least consider Hill if the other available options at the position aren’t great. The matchup is decent, and the Saints are playing well on offense. Just make sure you have a pivot if Kamara trends towards playing.
Offenses to Avoid in Week 17
I’ll lead with this, because there are a few offenses that I want to steer clear of this week. This is what happens when third-string quarterbacks are given the keys to the kingdom.
Kansas City Chiefs (vs. DEN): This one is easy. The keys to Chiefs Kingdom lie with a quarterback whose own family might not have heard of him. I certainly haven’t. KC’s implied total this week is 12, which is the lowest on the Week 17 Board and one of the lowest totals all season. The Broncos’ vaunted defense got lit up last week by Trevor Lawrence and I think they’ll take it out on a team that has nothing to play for, has beaten up on them for a decade, and has thrown up the white flag for 2025. Even if Rashee Rice is back, I wouldn’t go near him. Nor would I roll with Travis Kelce or either of the running backs. The Chiefs didn’t score a touchdown last week against the Titans, but even Harrison Butker is a risky play. Just look elsewhere.
New York Jets (vs. NE). The Jets will roll with Brady Cook for a second straight week (three, if you count the Miami game, where he came in for Travis Taylor early). The results have been predictably disastrous and aren’t getting better. Gang Green has averaged 12 points per game the last three weeks. Fun fact: Garrett Wilson hasn’t played in more than two months and leads the Jets with 395 receiving yards. Breece Hall will get opportunities and could get lucky with an explosive TD or a goal-line opportunity, but the Patriots are tough vs. the run and I wouldn’t be excited about starting him.
Minnesota Vikings (vs. DET). The Lions are a favorable matchup for QBs and receivers, but if Max Brosmer is under center for the Vikings, I really don’t want any part of their offense. In roughly six quarters of football so far this season, Brosmer hasn’t led his team to a touchdown. The Lions still have slim playoff hopes, and I think they won’t let up in this game. Aaron Jones, Sr. should get volume with Jordan Mason likely out, so I guess you can consider him if you need him. But how can you trust Justin Jefferson or any of the other pass catchers with the Bro’ throwing to them? Answer: You can’t.
Load ‘em up!
Let’s talk about something more fun than awful offenses. Start what you can in the ARI@CIN game. I know the Cardinals faltered last week, but it’s a nice matchup, they’ve been fantasy gold for the past month or so, and the Bengals showed last week that they can punish a defense that’s overmatched. This game has a juicy Vegas total of 53.5, which is the highest of the week. All the main names in this game should be in lineups this week.
CHI@SF is another game with a very high total (52.5). The difference is these are two playoff-bound teams jockeying for position. Both can still end up with the NFC #1 seed, so there is plenty to play for. Start what you can in this one too. The 49ers’ offense has been unstoppable lately, and their defense had all kinds of trouble with Philip Rivers and the Colts, so the Bears should get their points too. Vroom, vroom!
Two more games that should have plenty of scoring, and lots of good fantasy performances: LAR@ATL, and JAC@IND.
Rides and Fades
I’m going to hit on a few players at each position who haven’t been obvious names or auto-starts for portions of the season.
Quarterback
Rides:
Nobody is playing better than Trevor Lawrence (@IND). He’s the QB1 over the last six weeks and has an astonishing 75 points across the first two weeks of the fantasy playoffs. This week he faces a reeling Colts squad that yielded five TDs to Brock Purdy on Monday night. There are very few QBs (if any) that I’m starting over Lawrence this week.
Others ranked inside the Top-15 this week who aren’t auto-starts that I think you can roll with: Brock Purdy (vs. CHI) and in the same game Caleb Williams (@SF), Jacoby Brissett (@CIN), Tyler Shough (@TEN), Bo Nix (@KC), and Baker Mayfield (@MIA).
If you need a QB2, a few of the lower-ranked QBs who I think you can fire up this week include Kirk Cousins (vs. LAR), Cam Ward (vs. NO), and Malik Willis (vs. BAL, if he starts).
Fades:
Justin Herbert (@HOU) delivered for me as a Ride last week, but I think both he and C.J. Stroud (vs. LAC) are tough starts this week. The Chargers and Texas have given up the second and third fewest FPPG to opposing QBs and this game could be a defensive battle with a lot of field goals.
Lower-ranked QBs that you might be considering, but who I’d try to avoid, include Jaxson Dart (@LV), Geno Smith (vs. NYG, with no Brock Bowers), and Bryce Young (vs. SEA).
Toughest Call:
Jared Goff (vs. MIN) against the Vikings’ defense is strength vs. strength. Minnesota’s pass defense has been downright nasty and has allowed a grand total of one TD pass over the last seven games. One! Meanwhile, Goff averages around 20 FPPG and has been a prolific passer throughout his Lions’ tenure and especially at home. With Minnesota starting Max Brosmer, there should be plenty of possessions and opportunities, but that didn’t help Sam Darnold against this defense a few weeks ago. I think you can play Goff, but temper expectations.
Running back:
Rides:
Ashton Jeanty (vs. NYG). It’s been a frustrating season for Jeanty managers and especially those who sat him in a bad matchup last week and watched him go off. Well, this week he has a dream matchup, and with Brock Bowers out he should see even more targets. The Giants have allowed the second most rushing yards and fourth most FPPG to opposing RBs.
Others who are less obvious weekly starts and who I think have a good chance to outperform this week include: Kenneth Gainwell (@CLE), R.J. Harvey (@KC), Tyrone Tracy, Jr. (@LV), Michael Carter (@CIN), Chris Rodriguez, Jr. (vs. DAL), Blake Corum (@ATL), Zach Charbonnet (@CAR), and Emmanuel Wilson (vs. BAL).
Fades:
Most of my RB Fades are already covered above. I’ll just add these names: I can’t trust anyone in the Houston backfield (vs. LAC), or the Cleveland backfield (vs. PIT), as both situations are unclear and the matchups are tough, or David Montgomery (vs. MIN).
Toughest Call:
Bucky Irving (@MIA). It’s a good matchup and a game Tampa Bay should win, but Irving has been hard to trust since his return from injury. He’s ceding goal-line work to Sean Tucker, and barely playing over half of the snaps since his return. He did see his usage tick up a bit last week, and I’d roll with him unless you have an obvious pivot.
Wide receiver:
Rides:
Seven Rides this week, all of whom are ranked outside the Top-20 for the week and therefore not obvious auto-starts: Terry McLaurin (vs. DAL, and even with Josh Johnson likely starting), D.J. Moore (@SF), Stefon Diggs (@NYJ), Brian Thomas, Jr. (@IND), Chris Godwin (@MIA), and Alec Pierce and Josh Downs (vs. JAC).
Fades:
A number of Fades are already listed above. There are multiple situations where the starting QB is making certain receivers a little scary, and not in a good, “Scary Terry” kind of way. Like, I’m scared to start someone like Jayden Waddle (vs TB), although I think he’s got a fairly safe floor.
I’m more scared of the following players/situations, some of whom might be under consideration for fantasy managers.
Malik Willis played well last week, but if he’s starting, I’m going to have trouble trusting any of Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, or Jayden Reed (vs. BAL). On the other side, if Snoop Huntley starts for the Ravens, I’ve got the same concern with Zay Flowers (@GB) against a very good defense.
I’d also avoid all of the Bills’ WRs (vs. PHI), as none have really been all that reliable or productive all year. The Patriots’ receivers (@NYJ) beyond Diggs are also hard to trust, as any one of them can have a big game, but the ball really gets spread around. And I don’t think Drake Maye will be throwing much in the second half.
Toughest Call:
Drake London (vs. LAR) is only a tough call because of how little he did last week in a great matchup, in his first game back from injury. The Falcons will need to throw in this one to keep up, and I think you can trust London to see increased work. He did have eight targets last week, which is a good sign.
Tight end:
Rides:
Juwan Johnson (@TEN) has been a favorite target of Tyler Shough and especially now that Devaughn Vele is hurt. Johnson is the clear #2 option in the passing game (8-89-0 last week on nine targets) and makes for a nice start in a good matchup this week.
Other TEs who are less obvious names but I think can be started this week include Dalton Schultz (@LAC), Brenton Strange (@IND), Mike Gesicki (vs. ARI), and A.J. Barner (@CAR). All have been hot lately, and have at minimum decent matchups. And if George Kittle is out and you’re stuck, Jake Tonges (vs. CHI) proved earlier in the season that he can be a decent option.
Fades:
I’ve had it with the Ravens’ tight ends. Whether or not Lamar Jackson plays, they’re totally unreliable, and that’s not what you want if you’re playing for a title.
Dalton Kincaid (vs. PHI) is tough form me to get behind this week, against a defense that’s allowed the fewest yards and second fewest FPPG to opposing TEs (and just three TDs). It’s not like he’s been lighting it up, either.
Oronde Gadsden II (@HOU) has disappeared, and I’m not clicking him onto lineups in a fairly tough matchup against a really good defense.
Toughest Call:
Dallas Goedert (@BUF) is a tough call this week. Buffalo has allowed the second fewest receiving yards and the fewest catches and FPPG to opposing TEs (and just three receiving TDs), although Harold Fannin, Jr. had two TDs (one receiving, one rushing) against them last week. Goedert slots in as a very low-end TE1 for me this week.
PK and D/ST Streamers (ranked outside the top-14 for the week): See my Week 17 Waiver Wire column.
Good luck in Week 17, enjoy your holidays, and again, thanks for reading the column this season!
***This column appears each Thursday right here at Big Blue View. Each Monday, my Waiver Wire column appears here, and on Fridays you can find my weekly Prop bets of the week for the Giants, also right here. ***
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