The Los Angeles Rams have lost four games this season and all four of them have one thing in common. This is a team that has too often disappeared in the fourth quarter when it matters most. That was the complete opposite in 2021 when the Rams won the Super Bowl
A common them in all four of the Rams’ losses is that the offense had a chance to take the lead or tie the game late. While Stafford had three fourth-quarter comebacks and three game-winning drives in 2021, he has just one this season against the Indianapolis Colts.
In the loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, Josh Karty’s game-winning kick was blocked. After Stafford led the offense to the one-yard line against the San Francisco 49ers, Kyren Williams fumbled at the goal line when a touchdown would have given the Rams the lead. With the offense in field goal range against the Carolina Panthers, Stafford fumbled. Finally, last week against the Seattle Seahawks, the Rams blew a 16-point lead as the offense went three-and-out multiple times and Harrison Mevis missed a 48-yard field goal.
The defense has had moments. They held their ground in the Week 1 win to the Houston Texans and got the game-clinching interception against the Indianapolis Colts. The defense forced the Seahawks to use clock and settle for a 61-yard field goal in Week 11 that was missed. However, there are stretches in the fourth quarter where the defense tends to disappear.
The Rams defense was built to thrive in situations in which they are leading by double-digits and can unleash the pass rush. With that said, too often this season, that’s when teams have had the most success. Because teams are having to throw the ball more from behind, it has left the secondary more vulnerable, especially if the pass rush isn’t getting home.
Oddly enough, this is when the Rams defense has seemingly struggled the most. They’ve struggled with a positive game script. While they still do well in third-and-long situation, they haven’t found that same success when having a lead. When teams are forced to throw on early downs and play catch-up, they are having success. Jalen Hurts hadn’t thrown for over 200 yards or a single touchdown pass. Hurts eclipsed 200 yards against the Rams while throwing three second half touchdowns. The ethos of the defense is to limit explosive plays. Yet, the fourth quarter is when they are allowing them the most. The Rams defense has allowed a 36.9 percent explosive play rate in the fourth quarter and overtime.
This isn’t to say that this Rams team isn’t great because they’ve faltered late in close games. The Rams are 4-4 in one-score games this season. It’s almost more impressive that in a league that prides itself on close games, the Rams haven’t found themselves in those situations often. Since the bye week, the Rams have won games by an average of 17.3 points.
Stafford may not have his fourth quarter comebacks and game-winning drives, but it’s not as if he isn’t playing well. Stafford’s 0.34 EPA per play in the fourth quarter ranks second among quarterbacks. Defensively, the Rams still ranked 11th with -0.03 EPA per play. That’s better than they were in 2021 at 0.06. The Rams have the fourth-best fourth quarter offense.
Football is a complementary sport. When one unit isn’t at its best, the other needs to be able to carry the load during that stretch. That’s happened in several games this season. The defense held up in the Week 11 win to the Seahawks, especially in the second and third quarters when the offense couldn’t move the ball. When the defense struggled in Week 10, the offense scored 42 points against the 49ers.
However, too often this season, both units disappear at the same time. After the Rams went up 26-7 against the Eagles, they didn’t score on their next four possessions as the defense allowed three touchdowns in four drives. To start the game against the 49ers, the defense allowed 17 points on the first four drives on the field while the offense didn’t score until 2:09 was left in the second quarter.
That continued in Week 16 against the Seahawks. The offense went five straight possessions without a score in the fourth quarter. While the defense only allowed one touchdown drive, it was an explosive play and they allowed two two-point conversions. That doesn’t mention the one that they allowed in overtime.
During the 2021 season, it was almost a given that if Matthew Stafford had the ball with the game on the line, the Rams were going to win. That just hasn’t happened this season. When Stafford has put the Rams in position to win late, special teams or the players around him have faltered. Even when they haven’t, Stafford had the fumble against the Panthers.
In the late game situations, the Rams simply haven’t been as good as they have been in years past. While the Rams have blown out teams this season, the margins are going to get thinner in the playoffs. The Rams have won multiple one-score games consecutively and they’ll need to be able to string a few of those wins together to win the Super Bowl.
