Colts’ Week 16 QB Analysis: One last glimpse of the footabll we’ve lost.

_{Thanks to the project, and for the timely sources of data.}

_{For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts’ QB performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)}

On Monday Night Football, Philip Rivers gave us a look at a time when quarterbacks relied more on their brains than their arms or legs to move the ball down the field—a time when quarterbacks were better. Watching Rivers rush the offense to the line, then spend the next 20 seconds dissecting the defense and directing traffic before the snap, felt like watching Peyton Manning back in Colts’ blue.

In a doomed effort, Rivers was surgically efficient, leading the team to more points than the Colts have seen in 5 weeks—a bitter reminder that he would have been a far superior choice in 2021 than a younger, stronger, more mobile Carson Wentz.

HOW WELL?

On a per-play basis, Rivers was effective, consistently executing high-value passes while limiting the impact of negative plays. However, the pick-six was a massive negative event that erased any realistic chance of a comeback, tanking his overall EPA efficeincy.

So while EPA per play was low, he was effective in terms of yardage efficiency and consistently moving the chains.

HOW FAR?

Even with a clearly weakened arm, he pushed his attempts well beyond the checkdowns we saw last week, mixing in throws at all depths. His 9.7 average depth of target ranked 4th for the week, and he still completed 65% of those throws, allowing him to stack first downs and add a couple of touchdowns—not bad for an old man.

Both attempt and completion depth spiked this week.

TO WHO?

Downs and Warren led the team in targets, but Pierce led the way in yardage, catching all four of his targets.

Pierce has evolved into the #1 Receiver on the year yard-wise.

Warren struggled to generate value on his targets, but across the rest of the offense there was strong EPA efficiency.

Over the full season, the cumulative effect of the last five weeks has pulled target efficiency back to roughly league average.

HOW ACCURATE?

With the longer passes, the completion rate was depressed relative to the league. Surprisingly, CPOE was low as well. I didn’t get that impression while watching the game, but that’s why I measure these things—because feelings and the eye test aren’t very reliable.

HOW FAST?

Rivers got rid of the ball almost as quickly as he did last week, allowing him to avoid pressure.

TO WHERE?

Rivers largely avoided the left side of the field, which made sense given his struggles to generate value there.

Is it a consolation to say that season passing numbers still look good?

DASHBOARD

Here’s what happened in week 16:

• The Colts leaned heavily on the pass, with a supporting run game that was largely ineffective (2nd EDP, 16th ARSR).
• Rivers faced below-average pressure, driven primarily by his fast time to throw (20th PR%, 24th TTT). Given how quickly he was getting the ball out, I would have expected even less pressure, which suggests the offensive line struggled.
• Despite the quick throws, target and completion depth were long (4th ADOT, 11th AY/C).
• Given the depth of his throws, receiver YAC was solid, but in the 4th quarter his incompletions began to pile up, depressing his adjusted completion rate (27th AC%, 16th YAC). That combination ultimately led to a fairly average yards per attempt (17th AYPA).
• However, in typical Rivers fashion, he did not abandon plays, recording 0 scrambles, 0 throwaways, and 2 sacks (30th SCR%, 21st SCK%, 29th TA%). That low abandon rate boosted his relative dropback efficiency, resulting in a top-10 yards per dropback mark (10th NY/P).
• That yardage efficiency translated into a high number of first downs and a solid touchdown rate (10th 1st%, 13th TD%).

All of that culminated in the 7th-best QB Success Rate, but the disastrous pick-six dragged his EPA efficiency down to 17th.

While the season is not mathematically over, it realistically ended when Daniel Jones was injured. Rivers still gave the Colts a chance to win—and with it, a slim chance at the playoffs—something I doubt Riley Leonard or any other available quarterback could have done. But I wasn’t holding out for a miracle. I just wanted one last glimpse of what quarterbacks used to look like, and I got it. There’s a good chance I may never see it again.

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