Earlier this season, I wrote that Daniel Jones was playing himself into a massive new contract. He was on a one-year, $14 million deal and had completely transformed the Colts’ offense, turning them into one of the most efficient scoring units in the league. Based on the level he was playing at, I projected that Jones could realistically command a long-term contract in the range of $40-45 million per year, potentially on a 3- to 4-year deal, depending on how aggressive a team wanted to be. I laid out several contract structures, but the idea was simple: if he kept performing the way he was, Jones was heading toward a legitimate franchise-quarterback payday.
That projection has changed dramatically.
Jones’ torn Achilles is now the central variable in his contract discussion, and it’s impossible to ignore how much it alters his market. An Achilles tear is one of the toughest injuries for a quarterback to return from — it impacts mobility, footwork, timing, and the ability to generate torque on throws. Even in the most optimistic scenario, Jones won’t be fully healthy until around training camp, and that timeline alone makes it difficult for teams to confidently commit long-term money. The injury doesn’t erase the great football he played in 2025, but it absolutely changes how teams will value him going forward.
Because of that, the chances of Jones getting a four- or five-year deal — something that felt possible before the injury — are essentially gone. Instead, he’s almost certainly looking at a short-term contract, likely no more than three years, and even that would come with heavy team protections. And while I previously projected his value at around $40 million per season, the injury will shave that number down by several million. Something in the low-to-mid $30 million range — around $32M per year — now looks far more realistic.
But even at that reduced number, signing Jones won’t be simple. A team interested in him will still need at least $25 million in cap space just to fit the first year of that contract, even if it’s backloaded. That narrows the list of realistic suitors considerably, especially in a league where only a handful of teams will be actively searching for a quarterback and several of them are positioned to draft rookies early.
So Jones’ situation is now defined by two conflicting truths: he played well enough to earn real money, but the combination of a major injury and a limited quarterback market may restrict both his options and his leverage. Instead of entering free agency as one of the hottest names on the market, he now faces a far more complicated path — one that will likely result in a shorter deal, a lower annual value, and a smaller pool of teams capable of signing him.
Now that we have a baseline cost, it’s time to look at which teams will actually be shopping for a quarterback next year:
- Arizona Cardinals
- Cleveland Browns
- Las Vegas Raiders
- Miami Dolphins
- Minnesota Vikings
- New York Jets
- Pittsburgh Steelers
Of those teams, the Cleveland Browns and Miami Dolphins are essentially non-factors because of their cap situations. Cleveland is in full cap hell, weighed down by the Deshaun Watson contract, and they have almost no meaningful room to restructure at this point. Miami isn’t in a better spot — cutting Tua would actually hurt their cap space next season, and while moving on from Tyreek Hill would help them get back above the line, they would still need to gut several parts of their roster just to be in position to offer a competitive deal to Jones. For those reasons, neither the Browns nor the Dolphins can realistically be viewed as serious players in the quarterback market this offseason.
The Minnesota Vikings also fall into that boat to a certain degree, even though JJ McCarthy has shown some promising flashes this season. As things stand, they’re roughly $35 million over the cap for 2026 and would need to clear close to $50 million just to put a competitive offer in front of Jones. So even if the Vikings wanted to move on from McCarthy — which isn’t even a guarantee — they simply aren’t in a financial position to do it.
That leaves the Cardinals, Raiders, Jets and Steelers. The Raiders, Jets and Cardinals are all currently projected to pick inside the top six of the NFL Draft. The 2026 quarterback class may not be legendary, but it has enough high-end talent to shape the market. The headline prospect is Fernando Mendoza, widely expected to be the first quarterback off the board. Even if those teams don’t land the No. 1 pick, Mendoza is almost guaranteed to fall to one of them. Behind him, names like Dante Moore (Oregon) and Ty Simpson (Alabama) are also being floated as early-round options. If you’re one of those rebuilding teams, the choice is obvious: are you going to sink big money into a 28-year-old quarterback coming off a torn Achilles, or are you going to reset your franchise clock with a highly touted rookie on a cost-controlled deal? The answer is easy. Those three organizations are almost certain to move on from their current quarterbacks and take a swing on a young passer at the top of the draft instead. And for the Colts, that’s actually a break — the draft is just strong enough at the top to keep three potential bidders out of the Daniel Jones sweepstakes entirely.
That leaves just one realistic suitor for Daniel Jones in free agency: the Pittsburgh Steelers. They are the only team with both the cap flexibility and the potential long-term need at quarterback to even enter the conversation. Pittsburgh currently has Aaron Rodgers operating the offense, and while he’s been steady enough to keep them in the division race, he’ll be 43 next December. No matter how you spin it, the Steelers cannot count on Rodgers as a multi-year solution. At some point they need an actual succession plan — not just a hope that Rodgers can keep playing forever.
When you look at the other quarterbacks who could hit the market, Pittsburgh’s options narrow quickly. If Tua Tagovailoa becomes available, he’s not a realistic fit for Pittsburgh. He has struggled in cold-weather environments, and the Steelers aren’t going to hand their December and January playoff aspirations to a quarterback who historically dips in freezing conditions. Geno Smith is another name who may surface, but after a rough season in Las Vegas, he profiles more as a high-end backup than someone a franchise pivots to.
Kyler Murray is the intriguing wild card. The Cardinals could move on from him, and Pittsburgh has the cap space to absorb his contract structure — roughly $35M in 2026 and $36M in 2027 before they can get out of it cleanly in 2028. It would be expensive, but for a franchise transitioning out of the Rodgers era, Murray at least offers top-12 talent when healthy. That possibility alone complicates the Daniel Jones picture: the Steelers may prefer a younger, more dynamic quarterback whose skill set has already been proven over multiple seasons.
And of course, Pittsburgh could simply run it back with Rodgers for one more year while drafting a developmental quarterback in the second or third round. That approach would allow them to manage cost, maintain roster stability, and avoid rolling the dice on a veteran coming off an Achilles tear.
Put together, the Steelers have enough viable alternatives — Rodgers again, Murray via trade, mid-round rookie, or even sticking with their current structure — that they may not feel compelled to seriously pursue Jones. Even though Pittsburgh is the only remaining team with both a QB need and financial positioning, they are far from a guaranteed bidder. In reality, they might be more of a theoretical suitor than a practical one.
Why does this hurt Daniel Jones? It’s simple: demand sets the market. And right now, he doesn’t have one.
For him, it’s looking entirely like Indianapolis or nothing as a serious starting opportunity. And because of that, he has no leverage. He can’t ask for a five-year deal like some middle-tier quarterbacks have managed to secure, and he can’t demand massive guarantees while coming off an Achilles tear. He also hasn’t shown high-level play outside of Indianapolis, which inevitably raises the question of whether his success is system-dependent. That uncertainty alone can push teams away from offering real money. Twelve weeks of quality play in one environment, spread across a six-year career and three franchises, doesn’t exactly scream long-term security to an NFL front office.
His best play is to sign a one year contract and ball out on it so he can return to the free agency market next season, hopefully with a lot more leverage and more suitors to drive up his price. The Colts’ best play is to sign him to a 3 year contract with not a lot of guaranteed money to hold his rights for 3 seasons, but also have the ability to cut him after a season or two if he doesn’t return to his high level of play.
Daniel Jones entered this season with real momentum — finally putting high-level quarterback play on film, finally proving he could elevate a good offense, and finally positioning himself for a life-changing payday. But the Achilles tear changed everything, and the NFL quarterback marketplace around him has collapsed at the exact same time. The supply of available quarterbacks is far greater than the demand, and the teams that might have been interested either don’t have the cap space, have a young quarterback already, or are picking high enough in the draft to take a rookie rather than pay veteran money to a 28-year-old coming off one of the worst injuries a QB can sustain. You can’t change the timing, and Jones got dealt the worst possible hand at the worst possible moment.
And that’s the problem: he’s out of options. The teams that could have formed his free-agent market — Steelers, Raiders, Jets, Cardinals — all either have cheaper alternatives, draft solutions, or better swing options like Kyler Murray. Even if one of them liked Jones, liking a player is not the same as committing $30–35 million per year to him after an Achilles tear. Add in the fact that almost all of Jones’ high-end production came in Indianapolis, in Shane Steichen’s system, with Steichen’s play-calling, and you end up with a league asking the obvious question: is Jones good everywhere… or only good there? Twelve great weeks in one environment don’t erase five uneven seasons scattered across multiple franchises.
That’s why the leverage equation is brutally simple: Daniel Jones doesn’t control anything right now — the Colts do. He can’t demand a five-year contract. He can’t demand massive guarantees. He can’t even demand a top-tier AAV, because no bidding war is coming to save him. His market is “Indianapolis or nothing as a true starter,” and when one team knows it’s the only team, the outcome is inevitable. Jones will have to take whatever structure the Colts put in front of him — whether that’s a one-year “prove it” deal or a three-year contract with escape hatches after each season. The Colts don’t have to overpay, and they don’t have to negotiate from fear. They can simply wait, offer a reasonable deal that protects them, and watch Jones sign it because there is nowhere else for him to go.
In the end, this is the cruel side of the NFL. A player can play the best football of his life, finally earn a seat at the negotiating table… and one injury, one unlucky draft class, and one tight cap landscape can wipe all that leverage away instantly. Daniel Jones deserved a real shot at a real market. Instead, he’s walking into free agency with no suitors, no bargaining power, and no leverage. Indianapolis holds all the cards — and Jones, through no fault of his own, is boxed into accepting whatever the Colts want the deal to look like.
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