• Will Trevor Lawrence’s hot streak continue? He has produced a league-leading 92.1 PFF passing grade over the past three weeks, but the Broncos’ defense is arguably the league’s best. In particular, Lawrence may face some resistance on play action, where Denver has allowed the fewest yards per play (4.2).

• Caleb Williams will need to solve the Packers’ pressure: Although Micah Parsons is out for the season, Green Bay remains adept at forcing throwaways, of which Williams had a season-high seven in the Bears’ first meeting with the Packers in Week 14.

• Get PFF+ for 30% off: Use promo code HOLIDAY30 to unlock the PFF Player Prop Tool, Premium Stats, fantasy dashboards, the PFF Mock Draft Simulator, industry-leading fantasy rankings and much more — everything you need to win your season.

NFL Week 16 is here, and with it comes a fresh wave of advanced data and analysis.

PFF’s media research team has been hard at work this week, preparing for kickoff — pulling data-driven insights and talking points for our broadcast partners around the league. Now, we’re sharing those same nuggets with you. So, whether you’re looking to win your fantasy matchup, hit on your bets or just get smarter about the game, these are the key storylines to know for every Week 16 contest.

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Despite the absence of Jalen Carter over the past two games, Philadelphia’s pass rush has surged, generating a league-best 13 sacks since Week 14. The Eagles have also posted a 51% pressure rate over that span — the fourth-highest clip in the NFL — as the midseason addition of Jaelan Phillips continues to pay dividends.

Since joining the Eagles in Week 10, Phillips has recorded 30 pressures, leading the team and tying him for the sixth most among all defensive players. Over the full 2025 season, Phillips is producing career highs in both pass-rush win rate (19%) and pressure rate (18%).

On the other side, Marcus Mariota is set to finish the season as Washington’s starting quarterback, and the Commanders’ passing approach figures to remain aggressive. Mariota’s 10.6-yard average depth of target ranks first among quarterbacks this season, while a league-high 53% of his pass attempts have been past the sticks.

When these division rivals met in Week 14, Packers running back Josh Jacobs delivered his most physical performance of the season, posting season highs in missed tackles forced (nine) and rushing yards after contact (80).

Since joining the Packers in 2024, Jacobs has consistently punished Chicago’s defense. Across three games against the Bears, he has recorded 165 rushing yards after contact on 44 carries, averaging 3.8 yards after contact per attempt.

In the first meeting, Bears quarterback Caleb Williams faced pressure on 14 of his 35 dropbacks, yet he was sacked just once. He recorded seven throwaways under pressure in that game — the most by any quarterback in an outing this season.

That trend reflects the Packers’ ability to force difficult decisions. For the season, Green Bay has drawn 28 throwaways from opposing quarterbacks, tied for the second most in the NFL.

Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving was a major thorn in the side of the Panthers’ defense in 2024, piling up 265 rushing yards across two meetings while averaging 5.9 yards per carry. He consistently generated tough yardage, averaging 4.1 yards after contact against Carolina.

That physicality has been a trend for Irving. Dating back to the start of 2024, his 3.4 yards after contact per attempt average ranks fourth best among 41 running backs with at least 200 rushing attempts.

The Panthers’ run defense has taken a step forward in 2025 after allowing a league-high 71 explosive runs (10-plus yards) on designed plays and a 31st-ranked 12.8% explosive run rate in 2024.

This season, that number has dropped significantly. The Panthers have surrendered 34 explosive runs on designed rushing plays, leading to a 9.9% explosive run rate that ranks 19th in the league.

Play action has been a major driver of the Bills’ offensive success in 2025. Buffalo ranks fourth in the NFL in play-action rate (30%), a significant jump from 2024, when the offense ranked 25th (22%).

Bills quarterback Josh Allen has been highly efficient off play action this season, completing 72% of his passes — the sixth-highest rate among quarterbacks — while producing a 115.0 passer rating, which ranks eighth. Allen will look to continue that success against a Browns defense that has allowed the second-most passing touchdowns (13) in the NFL.

Rookie tight end Harold Fannin Jr. has emerged as a central piece of the Browns’ passing offense this season. His 66 receptions lead all rookies, and his production has been fueled by his ability after the catch. Fannin’s 335 yards after the catch rank sixth most among tight ends in 2025.

The Chargers have defended with light boxes on 57% of snaps this year, the third-highest rate in the NFL, creating a potential opportunity for Dallas’ run game.

The Cowboys have been highly effective against those looks, averaging 6.7 yards per carry when facing boxes with six or fewer defenders — the third-highest mark in the league.

Defensively, Dallas rarely relies on disguise, rotating its safeties on just 22% of snaps — the 28th-lowest rate among all defenses. That tendency could play into Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert’s strengths.

Against no-disguise looks, Herbert has thrown 19 touchdown passes, tied for the sixth most in the NFL, and has attempted 37 passes of 20-plus yards, the seventh most among quarterbacks.

Inside zone has been a staple of the Jets’ rushing attack this season — and for good reason. New York is averaging 4.4 yards per carry on inside-zone runs, the ninth-highest mark in the NFL.

That strength will be tested against a disciplined Saints run defense that is allowing just 3.8 yards per carry on inside zone — the ninth-lowest rate in the league. New Orleans is one of only six teams this season that have not surrendered a rushing touchdown on the concept.

A key highlight of rookie quarterback Tyler Shough’s play since taking over as the starter is his effectiveness between the numbers. Since Week 9, Shough has completed a league-best 86% of his passes in that area, and his 113.1 passer rating on those throws ranks third highest in the NFL.

Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy‘s 9.9-yard average depth of target ranks second among qualifying quarterbacks, and his deep passing has been on point over the past two games: six completions on nine attempts for 171 yards and a touchdown, including four big-time throws.

While the second-year signal-caller is struggling to connect with Justin Jefferson on deep throws (zero catches on three targets in Weeks 14 and 15), other Vikings pass catchers have stepped up, including Jordan Addison (three catches for 99 yards) and Jalen Nailor (two catches for 43 yards and a touchdown). McCarthy is primed to continue to take shots against a Giants defense that has given up 28 deep completions this season (tied for the second most). 

Giants tight end Theo Johnson is developing into a key pass catcher for the Giants, especially on third down, where he leads the position in receiving yards (260) and ranks tied for third in conversions (12). Four of those conversions came from contested catches, which also co-leads all tight ends. Minnesota is the league’s fifth-best third-down defense, though (36% conversion rate allowed).

If the Chiefs want to finish the season on a strong note under backup quarterback Gardner Minshew, they will have to clean up their recent struggles in pass protection. As the Raiders‘ starter for a good portion of 2024, Minshew logged a rough 36.7 PFF passing grade under pressure (fifth lowest among qualifying quarterbacks).

The Chiefs have allowed the fifth-highest pressure rate in the league over the past three weeks (46%) while dealing with offensive line injuries. In that same span, the Titans’ defense ranks second in pressure rate generated (48%).

Tony Pollard continued his hot streak in Week 15 with his third straight game averaging at least 6.0 yards per carry and 3.0 yards after contact. Over the past three weeks, he has the second-most rushing yards (325) and the fourth-most yards after contact (185) in the league. Limiting extra yards on the ground is a strength for the Chiefs, who have surrendered the fifth-fewest rushing yards after contact this season (894).

Since Week 9, Cincinnati has seen a noticeable uptick in pass-rush production from its two primary edge defenders, Joseph Ossai and Myles Murphy.

Through Weeks 1–8, Ossai posted an 8% pass-rush win rate and a 10% pressure rate. Since Week 9, those numbers have jumped to 15% and 16%, respectively.

Murphy has made an even bigger impact down the stretch. Since Week 9, he owns a 13% pass-rush win rate and a 14% pressure rate, while his 24 pressures over the span lead the Bengals’ defense. He recorded just a 10% win rate and a 7% pressure rate through the first eight weeks.

Quinn Ewers will make his NFL starting debut, and if Miami’s pass protection can keep the former Texas Longhorn clean, he has the profile to succeed. When kept clean in his final college season, Ewers threw 27 touchdown passes — the fifth most among FBS quarterbacks — while completing 70% of his passes.

In Drake London‘s absence over the past four games, tight end Kyle Pitts Sr. has had a featured role in the Falcons’ passing game. With London on the field this season, Pitts has been targeted on 17% of routes while averaging 1.25 yards per route run. With London off the field, his target rate jumps to 27% and yards per route run up to 2.52. Those marks would rank first and second, respectively, among qualifying tight ends this season.

Pitts is in line to continue to produce against a Cardinals defense that has given up 893 receiving yards to tight ends (tied for the sixth most).

On the other side of the matchup is the NFL’s reception leader, Trey McBride, who is on a historic pace. In the PFF era, only two players have recorded more receptions in a season without a dropped pass than McBride’s 105: DeAndre Hopkins with 115 and Christian McCaffrey with 108 (both in 2018).

Also notable are McBride’s 18 contested catches this season, ranking fourth leaguewide. The Falcons will make his job difficult, as they have allowed the fifth-lowest catch rate to tight ends (70%).

Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence has been on a heater over the past three weeks, producing a league-leading 92.1 PFF passing grade with nine big-time throws and zero turnover-worthy plays. He was especially effective off play action against the Jets in Week 15, completing nine of 12 attempts for 161 yards and two touchdowns.

That will be a difficult performance to repeat against a Broncos defense that has faced play action at the sixth-lowest rate (23%) and has allowed the fewest yards per play (4.2).

Broncos quarterback Bo Nix‘s 145 pass attempts outside the pocket lead the NFL, but his passing from inside the pocket was on display against the Packers in Week 15. He earned a career-high 90.2 PFF passing grade from inside the pocket, completing 19 of 25 passes for 233 yards and three touchdowns, including four big-time throws.

The Jaguars have faced the second-most pass attempts from inside the pocket (446) while allowing the second-fewest yards per attempt (6.1) on those plays.

Steelers 27-year-old former undrafted free agent Dylan Cook had a strong performance in his first career start at left tackle in Week 15, earning an 89.9 PFF pass-blocking grade with zero pressures allowed on 30 pass-blocking snaps.

Across 18 matchups against Bradley Chubb and three against Chop Robinson, Cook did not lose a single rep as a pass blocker. Next up is the Lions edge duo of Aidan Hutchinson (league leader in pressures) and Al-Quadin Muhammad, whose 130 combined pressures rank second among all edge duos.        

Before Detroit’s Week 8 bye, Jared Goff had completed just four of 13 deep attempts (31%), earning a 45.2 PFF passing grade. Since the bye, he has completed 12 of 21 deep attempts (57%), more than doubling his PFF passing grade (95.4). He was close to perfect against the Rams in Week 15, completing four of five deep attempts for 95 yards and two touchdowns.

With an aggressive pass rush that doesn’t give quarterbacks much time in the pocket, the Steelers have faced the league’s lowest deep attempt rate (7%).

Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud earned a season-best 81.7 PFF passing grade against the Cardinals in Week 15 after a perfect outing when throwing downfield (10-plus yards), completing all five attempts for 105 yards and three touchdowns.

On those plays, wide receiver Nico Collins accounted for three catches for 85 yards and two touchdowns, bringing his season totals on downfield targets to 32 catches for 760 yards and six touchdowns (top five in each category). The Raiders have allowed the eighth-highest completion rate on downfield throws (54%) this season.

The Raiders, amid a rough season, have been able to pick up yards after the catch, where they rank 10th leaguewide. Leading the way is rookie Ashton Jeanty, whose 400 yards after the catch rank sixth among running backs and whose 20 missed tackles forced on receptions rank tied for third. Houston’s defense will be a tough test, having given up the fourth-fewest yards after the catch this season.

Patriots rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson broke away for two 50-plus-yard touchdown runs against the Bills in Week 15, bringing his season total to four — two more than any other player. He recorded 124 of his 148 rushing yards against the Bills before contact, bringing his season average to 1.8 yards before contact per carry.

Among running backs with at least 100 carries, Henderson and the Dolphins’ De’Von Achane are the only players ranked in the top 10 in both yards before contact per carry and yards after contact per carry. From Weeks 1-5, the Ravens led all defenses in rushing yards allowed before contact (248). Since Week 6, they have given up the sixth-fewest yards (220).

The Ravens also have big-play threats at running back in Derrick Henry and Keaton Mitchell, who combined for six explosive runs against the Bengals in Week 15. On the season, Henry ranks tied for sixth leaguewide in explosive runs (26), while Mitchell’s 23% explosive run rate leads the position (minimum 25 carries).

New England gave up four explosive runs to the Bills in Week 15 — an area they have struggled in lately. Since Week 10, their 15% explosive run rate allowed ranks 29th.

Quarterback Philip Rivers posted a career-low average time to throw of 2.38 seconds in his last full season in 2020, and the Colts used a similar game plan in his Week 15 return, leading to a 2.41-second average time to throw for the 44-year-old veteran.

How quickly Rivers got rid of the football made a big impact in Week 15. On throws in 2.5 seconds or less, he completed 14 of 18 attempts for 106 yards and a touchdown. On throws over 2.5 seconds, he completed four of nine passes for 14 yards and an interception. He should have time to operate against a 49ers defense that has the league’s third-lowest quick-pressure rate (16%) and the second-longest average time to pressure (2.73 seconds).

Wide receiver Ricky Pearsall got off to a strong start this season as the 49ers’ receiving yards leader from Weeks 1-4, and he was especially productive against single coverage, leading all pass catchers in receiving yards (234).

He went on to miss the next six games with a lower-body injury and had minimal production in his return to the lineup, compiling just five catches for 20 yards from Weeks 11-13. However, he was much more involved coming out of the bye against the Titans in Week 15, with six catches for 96 yards and five conversions, including 76 yards and four conversions against single coverage. The Colts have given up the fifth-most receiving yards in single coverage (1,307) this season.