The 2-12 New York Giants host the 6-8 Minnesota Vikings, who are on a two-game winning streak this Sunday. Kevin O’Connell’s team defeated the Cowboys 34-26 in primetime last week and shut out the Commanders 31-0 in Week 14; the win over Washington ended a four-game losing streak. Despite the recent hot streak, the Vikings are eliminated from playoff contention. The Vikings are 2.5-point favorites.
Vikings’ defense
Brian Flores is revered for his aggressive and unpredictable defense. The Vikings are 13th in points allowed per game (21.9); they’re ninth in yards allowed per game (307.9). The Vikings surrender yards on the ground; they allow 127.9 yards per game, which ranks 24th in the NFL. Conversely, Flores has limited opposing teams’ passing games. The Vikings allow only 180.4 points per game, which ranks fifth-best in the NFL.
The Vikings have the third-best red-zone defense, behind only the Denver Broncos and the Los Angeles Rams. Minnesota allows a touchdown on just 45.45% of its red zone trips. Compared to the rest of the league, the Giants rank 29th with a 66.67% touchdown capitulated rate in the red zone. Minnesota also has the sixth-best third-down percentage (35.8%).
Unsurprisingly, Flores blitzes more than any other defensive coordinator in the NFL. According to ProFootballReference, the Vikings blitzed on 43% of their snaps. They pressured the quarterback on 28.1% of their snaps, which ranks third in the NFL. The rank third in the NFL in tackles for a loss, 11th in sacks (35), but only have five interceptions on the season — same number as the Giants, and it’s tied for second to last with the San Francisco 49ers (the New York Jets don’t have an interception).
Flores is not shy to call Cover-0 and send the house. He employs a variety of methods to get after opposing quarterbacks and to confuse young quarterbacks with unique looks on the backend. New York’s protection will have its hands full on Sunday.
The Vikings, however, did lose two high-quality starters last weekend. EDGE rusher Jonathan Greenard and safety Josh Metellus were placed on the Injured Reserve; the latter ranked third in total tackles and was one of the most sound tacklers on the team, while the former leads the team in pressures with 47. Dallas Turner and Jonathan Allen are tied for second on the team in pressures with 32, and linebacker Eric Wilson has 31.
Theo Jackson was the third safety before his neck injury in Week 12. He practiced in full last week but did not play a defensive snap. Mettellus played all but one snap next week, so Jackson may earn more snaps alongside veteran Harrison Smith.
Greenard will be difficult to replace. He recorded seven pressures and a sack-and-a-half last week. Overall, he’s struggled to finish this season, but has been a true asset for Flores. Dallas Turner will step into a more full-time role, opposite Andrew Van Ginkel, who had a pick-six against Washington and has 18 pressures with four sacks on the season.
The Vikings are strong on the defensive front. Third-year player Jalen Redmond plays next to veterans Jonathan Allen and Jevon Hargrave. Redmond is breaking out as a pass rusher and has 30 pressures on the season. Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins and Levi Drake Rodriguez are the depth defensive linemen.
Byron Murphy Jr. (69.4% completion rate) and Isaiah Rodgers (64.4%) are the starting cornerbacks, with GIANT great Fabian Moreau (46.2%) as the third cornerback. Expect Murphy Jr. to slide into the slot, putting Moreau on the outside; Moreau has only played 151 snaps on the season. The Vikings don’t have the biggest linebacker corps. Expect to see a lot of Eric Wilson and Blake Cashman. Ivan Pace Jr. does not see the field as often on defense and he’s more of a special teams’ player.
The matchup
I expect Flores to match the Giants’ 12 personnel package with base. The Vikings have used BASE personnel on 44% of snaps this season and nickel 2-4-5 at a 29% rate. Flores may match 11-personnel with that nickel package, but, depending on the context, the Vikings’ 2-3-6 DIME package could be used. The Giants relied on 11 personnel at an 80% rate last week against Washington.
Either way, expect Flores to get deep into his bag against a rookie quarterback that’s starting for the New York Giants — a team he’s had contention with in the past. The injuries may temper Minnesota, but I still expect an aggressive approach against Jaxson Dart.
However, Javonte Williams averaged 6.1 yards per carry last week (on 15 carries). This is the second game in a row on the road for the Vikings, and I expect the Giants to lean on the run here in late December. Mike Kafka and the Giants’ staff have done well attempting to establish the run. Last week, Kafka was more aggressive passing on first down. It wasn’t successful in the first half, as the Giants struggled to get their offensive legs stable.
New York will be cognizant of the pressure. Expect screens, plenty of screens, screens to Theo Johnson, and I expect to see Flores sugar the line of scrimmage and bail with a quarterback spy and containment on Dart. New York should try to take advantage of a suspect rushing defense; control the ball, establish the run, and keep it simple for the rookie against one of the more feared play-callers in the NFL.
If the run doesn’t work, New York should turn to RPO and the quick game. Deep passing concepts need to be from at least seven-man protection. I want the Giants to take their shots off Yankee and Mills or Dagger concepts with enough blue bodies to protect Dart, but those calls should be made judiciously.
Final thoughts
The offense will struggle against Flores, even with the injuries. The Vikings offense has struggled all season, but JJ McCarthy is coming off two wins with adequate play. I trust that Kevin O’Connell will be able to exploit the Giants’ lack of defensive talent, but I don’t expect the Giants’ defense to fold. Still, I’m taking the Vikings.
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