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Los Angeles Rams (-1) vs. Seattle Seahawks [Total: 44]

Game Overview

The Rams and Seahawks, tied atop the NFC West, face off once more in the pursuit of claiming not only the division crown, but potentially the NFC’s top seed in the playoffs.

When these two contenders met in Week 11, points were at a premium, with both teams clawing for field position. The Rams’ defense set the tone, baiting Sam Darnold into four interceptions — his most in an outing since the “seeing ghosts” game in 2019. 

Even still, Seattle didn’t go down quietly on the road. Down nine points with six minutes left in regulation, Darnold led an 84-yard touchdown drive to cut Los Angeles’ lead to just two points. After a subsequent stop, the Seahawks mounted a final drive aiming to take the lead, but Jason Myers’ 61-yard game-winning field goal attempt came up short as time expired.

While there were gutsy performances from both sidelines, what doesn’t get enough credit in that matchup was just how well the Seahawks’ defense played against a powerhouse Rams offense. Seattle limited the Rams to their lowest EPA per play (-0.171) this season, allowing a play to generate positive EPA just 37.3% of the time.

It was an impressive feat, given how dominant Sean McVay’s offense had looked up to that point, generating positive EPA on a league-leading 51.6% of offensive plays beforehand.

Offensive +EPA% (Weeks 1-10)

But that’s just the tip of the iceberg for Mike Macdonald’s defense. Since Week 6, Seattle has maintained the strongest defensive profile in the NFL, posting league-best marks in EPA per play allowed (-0.208) and scoring drive rate allowed (23.0%). PFF betting analyst Judah Fortgang highlighted this matchup as one of his early lines to target for Week 16, due in part to Seattle’s defensive prowess.

Defensive EPA/Play Allowed (Weeks 6-15)

Although their previous matchup concluded with a Rams victory at home, the Seahawks came away with the cover as 3.5-point underdogs — their first cover against McVay’s Rams in the Macdonald era. Now the series shifts to Seattle, where the Seahawks should, in theory, fare more favorably. However, the trends haven’t been as encouraging, with the Seahawks holding a 1-6 record against the spread as home underdogs since the start of 2024. 

Conversely, the Rams maintain an 88.9% cover rate (8-1 against the spread) as road favorites over that span. The bright spot for Seattle in that daunting measure comes from the one game where Los Angeles failed to cover: their upset loss to the Panthers in Week 13.

Explore Top Player Props

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks: Over 6.5 receptions (-105)

Smith-Njigba is a target monster. He stands as one of just two players with at least 100 receiving snaps to be targeted on more than 30% of their routes this season. No other Seahawks pass catcher exceeds even 20% this season.

That type of volume has allowed Smith-Njigba to rack up impressive reception numbers each week. He is averaging the third-most receptions per game among wide receivers. He is also seeing 9.6 targets per game and has hauled in seven or more receptions in eight of his past 10 games, including a massive nine catches the last time these teams faced off, tying his season high.

Although Los Angeles is home to one of the NFL’s most vaunted defenses, the unit has struggled to slow down receivers this season. The Rams have allowed the fourth-most receptions to the position. That’s come to the forefront after the defense surrendered a pair of monster performances in each of the past two games. In Week 14, Cardinals receiver Michael Wilson went for 142 yards and two touchdowns on 11 receptions. Amon-Ra St. Brown followed that up in Week 15 with 13 catches, 164 yards and two scores. That track record bodes well for Smith-Njigba to have a big game.