If you take the six worst games by the Los Angeles Rams against the deep pass this season, they are 3-3. In every other contest, they’re 8-0. Chris Shula’s defense must shut down Sam Darnold for the second time this season to beat the Seahawks on Thursday, otherwise L.A.‘s defensive coordinator could be guaranteed a return to the Rams in 2026 without any other job offers.
The Rams defense is on a cold streak right now. Can Shula get it right in 24 hours?
Rams pass defense struggles
By expected points added (EPA), a stat from Next Gen Stats that essentially just measures the value of each play relative to the score, down, distance, and game situation, the Rams just had their worst game of the season against deep passes:
Jared Goff went 5-of-5 for 95 yards and 2 touchdowns on throws over 20 air yards.
Only one team allowed more big plays in Week 15 than the Rams defense did…The Detroit Lions.
That EPA of +1.89 per pass attempt against Goff is L.A.’s worst game of the season. Unsurprisingly, the -17.65 defensive EPA for the entire game was also the Rams worst game of the season.
This comes two weeks after the Rams’ second-worst game of the season (-14.28 EPA), a 31-28 loss to the Panthers. Sandwiched in between was a middling, average defensive performance against the Cardinals (0.21 EPA), a very bad offense. Despite blowing out Arizona, L.A. also had their second-worst special teams game (-6.66 EPA) of the year last week.
As such, a defense that still ranks third in points allowed and fourth in points per drive allowed over the course of the entire season…how now allowed the 10th-MOST points in the past three games. It is only thanks to scoring the most points in the league that L.A. has won two of those games.
Can Sean McVay count on out-punching his opponents every week, especially in the playoffs? For the Rams to be the most complete team in the league, as many believe that they are, McVay and Shula need to figure out a way to start ducking some of these body blows.
Sam Darnold’s last game against the pass defense broke him
By intercepting him four times in the first meeting, L.A. has forced Darnold to abandon his tendency to attack tight windows. Per Benjamin Solak, Darnold went from the best tight-window passer in the league before the Rams to missing his last 9 such throws and going 2-for-20 since playing the Rams.
That’s a great performance by the Rams defense, especially considering L.A.‘s matchup against Darnold on Thursday, but is it a great sign of things to come?
Darnold was terrible against the Rams in the first game and he averaged just 4.7 yards per deep pass with -1.41 EPA/deep pass against L.A. the last time. He was intercepted four times. He was disrupted. That’s a great skin on the wall for Shula, but that’s in the past. Given how mediocre the pass defense — and deep pass defense — has been since then, can Shula get the defense back on track before the playoffs?
Tackling problems
The Rams have slipped from the best tackling defense in the league (historically great) to two of the worst games by any defense on any team this year in the last two weeks, as pointed out by JB Scott:
While the Rams have won their last two games by a combined 35 points, they are also fresh off their two-worst tackling performances of the year according to Pro Football Focus (PFF):Week 14 at Arizona Cardinals: 32.4 tackling grade; 14 misses and Week 15 vs Detroit Lions: 38.8 tackling grade; 13 misses.
If we zoom out across the entire NFL, the Rams rank 10th in overall tackling grade. Earlier this season, however, they were leading the league. It’s a troubling concern that likely helps explain LA’s recent regression on defense. They haven’t felt as dominant since their Week 12 rout of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
So far we’ve covered that the Rams pass defense coverage has been terrible recently and their tackling has fallen off exceptionally as players have regressed to expected season averages.
Do the Rams need to score 35 points every week to win? Shula has to realize that’s unsustainable. McVay too.
The Rams are actually 0-2 in their two BEST run defense games (49ers Week 5, Eagles Week 3) of the season. Is i noteworthy that the 49ers game was also on a Thursday?
Of course, both of these games were close, including an overtime loss and the brutal ending to the Philly game. The Rams could have won. But regardless the games were close despite their most impressive run defense efforts of the 2025 season.
The Rams are 6-1 this season when the opponent rushes for OVER 90 yards. That includes 135 rushing yards in LA’s win over Seattle.
That being said, L.A.’s defensive line did get pushed back consistently in losses to the Panthers and Eagles, as well as their narrow win over the Colts. Those represent three of the Rams four worst games by “Rushing yards allowed before contact” of the season.
The Seahawks are already one of the worst rushing offenses in the NFL despite being the most run-heavy offense in the NFL. Seattle insists on running the ball to setup the play action passing game, which as of today is the most efficient and productive play-action offense in the league. Klint Kubiak’s plan is working for something.
Seahawks are a below-average passing team when they can’t run play action.
What do you get from an offense when they can run and can’t execute play action? A bad offense. But this only matters if Shula gets his best pass defense game of the season from struggling players like Emmanuel Forbes and Josh Wallace, better tackling, and more pressure on Darnold. The Rams have the ninth-highest pressure rate in the league, but didn’t sack Darnold (again, intercepted him FOUR times) the last time.
Players like Jared Verse, Byron Young, Kobie Turner, and Braden Fiske will need to step up on Thursday to alleviate the pressure on a struggling secondary. Nate Landman, who has been less effective in coverage lately than he was in the first half of the season (123.3 passer rating allowed and 4 TD allowed in the last eight games), will need to rebound from last week with his best game of the year.
Seahawks OC Klint Kubiak and Rams DC Chris Shula are arguably the two hottest names on the head coaching market for coordinators. Either one of them could land a significant notch on their belt for the resume with a great performance on Thursday; or either of them could get pushed to the bottom of the pile with an ugly loss.
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