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Minnesota Vikings vs. Dallas Cowboys (-5.5) [Total: 47.5]

Game Overview

The Vikings and Cowboys are clawing to stave off elimination in the NFC playoff race.

According to the PFF playoff probability metrics, Dallas holds an 11% chance of securing a postseason berth, with a loss all but torpedoing any chance of realistically earning a spot. With four games remaining on the schedule, it’s do-or-die time for the Cowboys. That urgency — and light schedule to close the season — bodes well for Dallas’ chances to stay alive and to go over its preseason win total line (7.5).  

The Vikings aren’t in as fortunate a position. While not mathematically eliminated just yet (<1%), Minnesota may be by the time kickoff rolls around. To stay in good standing, the Vikings need numerous results throughout Sunday to swing their way.  

Putting the motivation factor aside, as far as this contest is concerned, the trends aren’t favorable. Although the Vikings are coming off a dominant 31-0 shutout win over the eliminated Commanders, that’s just their second cover since early October, equating to just a 25% cover rate. 

For the Cowboys, coming off a disappointing loss to the Lions in Detroit, the shift back to Dallas does project favorably. At AT&T Stadium, they hold a 4-2 record against the spread, most recently taking down the Eagles and Chiefs for outright wins as underdogs. 

Explore Top Player Props

RB Malik Davis, Dallas Cowboys: Over 8.5 rushing yards (-105)

Although Malik Davis doesn’t feature heavily in the Cowboys’ rushing attack, he’s used his limited opportunities to showcase his burst and efficiency as a north-south runner. Since taking control of the backup role to Javonte Williams in Week 8, the former undrafted back has generated 6.4 yards per carry, with 4.6 of that coming after first contact. That level of efficiency on limited touches has helped Davis produce 20 or more yards in three of his past four games.

While this rushing line is low, it can be difficult for a back with a limited touch share to exceed this mark. But there is value here because of his ability to burst through holes quickly, limiting his chances of taking a loss, evidenced by his perfect 0.0% stuff rate (negative-yardage carries).

The Vikings aren’t among the most susceptible defenses against the run this season, but their aggressive approach can leave them in tough spots. Over just their past three games, they’ve allowed 3.5 yards after contact per attempt and 10 rushes of 10 or more yards, both of which rank in the bottom four. 

Davis excels at attacking the throat of defenses, averaging 10.25 yards per attempt on runs into A-gaps. Meanwhile, the Vikings are allowing the fifth-highest rushing success rate and more than 4.1 yards per carry on A-gap runs.