Welcome to the New York Giants betting angle, Week 15 edition. Each week, I’m giving you my three favorite wagers for that week’s New York Giants game. My one rule: I won’t ever give you wagers that are less than -120. No gimmies here.
We’ve got a real barn-burner this week, with the 3-10 Commanders coming to MetLife Stadium to face the 2-11 Giants. It’s the first NFL game this season pitting two teams with double-digit losses, and neither of these teams has won a game in the last two months. Big Blue has dropped seven straight contests since their last win (Eagles) on October 9, while the Commanders have dropped eight in a row since they beat the Chargers on October 5. Something’s got to give.
The Commanders hit rock-bottom last week when they got skunked 31-0 at the Vikings. But in the two games before that, they took the Broncos and Dolphins to overtime before losing. Much like the Giants, they’ve had some close calls. As a reminder, this is a team that went to the NFC Conference Championship last year and came into this season with Super Bowl aspirations. 2024 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels re-aggravated his elbow injury against the Vikings and is out for this contest, so Washington will again be turning to Marcus Mariota. He’ll be without safety blanket Zach Ertz, who tore his ACL last Sunday.
For their part, the Giants are coming off a Bye, and after playing a lot of competitive games against strong teams, they got smoked by the Patriots on Monday night two weeks ago. Sunday’s game against Washington will mark the first time that the Giants are facing a team with a losing record since they played the Saints on October 2.
These teams met in Washington in Week 1, with the Commanders winning 21-6. You can throw that result out the window, as both teams will have different QBs this week, the Giants have a different coach, and in general the teams barely resemble the ones that took the field on opening day.
The line on FanDuel is NY -2.5, with a game total of 46.5. Temperatures right around the freezing mark and winds in the 15-20 mph range are expected in East Rutherford on Sunday. An inch or two of snow is forecasted for Sunday morning, but that should clear by kickoff.
My picks were 1-2 in Week 13, after a 2-1 showing the week before. Enough treading water…let’s win!
Here are this week’s picks. All lines and odds are from FanDuel and are as of Friday, December 12.
- Giants -2.5 (-110). I haven’t taken the Giants on a spread bet more than once or twice this season, but maybe I should have, as they’re 7-6 ATS. The Commanders are 4-9 ATS, so I like the trends. Right now, I think the Giants are the better team, even if their record doesn’t show it. You can find this bet on some other sites at -2, but as long as it’s below three I’m comfortable laying the points. New York has the advantages of coming off the Bye and playing at home. The Giants’ Moneyline wager is -142, so I think this small spread represents decent value.
- Marcus Mariota OVER 30.5 rushing yards (-114). Mariota has gone over this total in four of his seven starts, including his last two. He’s also had at least 20 rushing yards in every one of his starts, so the floor is there. The Giants are vulnerable to mobile QBs. They’ve allowed 313 rushing yards to the position this season, which is fifth most in the NFL. They’ve also been awful against the run in general all season and especially lately (6.1 yards per carry in their last five games). Take the over.
- Jaxson Dart OVER 28.5 rushing yards (-114). I know this is risky and goes against logic, but let’s take both QBs to hit their rushing prop, on a cold and windy day where it might not be that easy to throw. Dart gave us his one game of caution (and he got trucked twice anyway) in his first game back from the concussion, and he still managed 20 yards on four carries. He’s had at least five rushes in the rest of his starts and has gone over 50 yards five times in eight tries. There may not be many designed runs, but I like him to get to this total regardless.
Those are the picks for Week 15. Good luck with your wagers!
If you play fantasy football, check out my big Week 15 Fantasy Preview, with starts, sits, sleepers, matchup analysis and more – right here at Big Blue View.
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