Vikings Make a Statement

Blowout of the Texans after takedown of the 49ers sends the message that the Vikings are for real

The Minnesota Vikings have made a statement to the league after the first three games of the season: they are for real and legitimate postseason contenders this season. That statement was highlighted by their blowout victory against the Houston Texans, who had the third best odds to win the Super Bowl prior to their game against the Vikings. The 49ers, whom the Vikings beat handily week two, have the second-best Super Bowl winning odds.

Betting markets have begun to respond to the Vikings’ winning ways, but in some instances may still undervalue the Vikings prospects this season. For example, while the Vikings odds to win the NFC North have shortened from +1000 to +195 according to Draftkings, their odds for winning the NFC conference are +1200, the same as the Cowboys after their dismal start to the season, and well behind the favorite 49ers at +300, as well as both the Lions and Packers. The Vikings would be the first seed in the NFC playoffs if the season ended today.

Vikings’ 3-0 Start Well Supported by Other Metrics

Unlike the Vikings’ 2022 season, when their 13-4 record was not supported by other metrics ranging from DVOA to point differential, so far this season the Vikings performance is well supported by nearly all key metrics from PFF grades and DVOA to point differential and EPA and strength of schedule so far. The Vikings rank in the top five in just about all of these major metrics, and with a tougher strength of schedule played than the other top teams so far:

• 4th in overall PFF team grade (82.7)
• 4th in total DVOA (43.7%)
• 3rd in point differential (+55)
• 4th in defensive EPA per play (-0.24)
• 8th in offensive EPA per play (+0.04)
• 17th in strength of schedule played

The three teams with better total DVOA than the Vikings have played three of the four easiest schedules so far, for comparison.

Vikings Success is Broad-Based

The Vikings success has been broad-based across nearly all facets- offense, defense, and special teams. Offensively the Vikings have been able to run and pass well, and defend the same defensively. They’ve been good in the red zone on both sides (they rank 7th in both red zone TD% and TD% allowed) and on third down conversion rate- ranking 3rd offensively and tenth defensively.

All that makes it difficult to game plan against the Vikings. It’s not like a team can plan to take away one thing the Vikings do well and expect that to be enough to win. The Vikings are capable of beating teams multiple ways on both sides of the ball and have schemes and personnel that can help them dictate the terms of engagement on both sides of the ball as well.

Defensively, what’s changed from last season is that schematically Brian Flores has been able to mix in more man coverage than last season (they hardly ever played man last year) which makes it more challenging for quarterbacks to determine the coverage given the presnap disguises and therefore forces the quarterback to hold the ball longer. That’s led to the Vikings having the most sacks in the league over three weeks.

Secondly, Flores’ presnap looks with what appears to be a stacked box discourages teams from running against the Vikings and can punish them when they do. Opponents have the second-fewest rush attempts against the Vikings, the second-fewest yards, and the third-lowest yards per rushing attempt.

Lastly, the Vikings also have more good players defensively than last season. Andrew Van Ginkel, Jonathan Greenard, Pat Jones II (who’s playing much better than he ever has in the past), Blake Cashman, Stephon Gilmore, Shaq Griffin, Jerry Tillery, Dallas Turner, and Jihad Ward have all played better than their predecessors last season so far, and have helped strengthen the weakest links defensively for the Vikings.

Offensively, the big question mark was Sam Darnold and so far he is playing the best football of his career. Darnold ranks among the top ten starting quarterbacks in most major passing metrics from passer rating and QBR to EPA/drop back and CPOE (completion percentage over expected). He ranks top five in a few of those.

And Darnold has done all that despite having the fifth highest pressure rate at 39.3% of his dropbacks. The Vikings rank 29th in pass blocking efficiency after three games, largely due to the performance of Ed Ingram, who is the second-worst graded starting guard in the league in pass blocking according to PFF and second-worst in pass blocking efficiency; and center Garrett Bradbury, who ranks third-worst and worst respectively. Twenty of the 33 pressures allowed by the Vikings offensive linemen so far have come from Ingram and Bradbury.

The good news is that new left guard Blake Brandel ranks third best in pass blocking efficiency, having given up just one hurry so far. And, there is some prospect of replacing Ed Ingram once Dalton Risner is healthy, although Tyrese Robinson could be a consideration as well. Ingram is also the lowest graded run blocker among the Vikings starting offensive lineman.

More Help is On the Way

In addition to the potential replacement of Ingram if he continues to play poorly, the Vikings’ offense will also be helped by the return of Jordan Addison soon, and T.J. Hockenson perhaps as soon as after the Vikings’ bye-week. Both would upgrade the Vikings’ weapons offensively and create more issues for defenses to deal with.

In the meantime, the Vikings have been helped by the emergence of WR Jalen Nailor and left guard Blake Brandel, who upgrade weak links from last season, and the addition of RB Aaron Jones, who has been very effective in his touches so far.

Bottom Line

The Vikings have had one of the strongest starts to the season in recent years and one that has been broad-based. Improvement defensively was not unexpected for the most part locally (but it was nationally), while Sam Darnold’s performance has come in at the high end of expectations after three games and the addition of Aaron Jones has had a positive impact on the Vikings running game. Ty Chandler has done well too. And they’ve done it against two of the top three Super Bowl contenders in the 49ers and Texans, and without Jordan Addison and TJ Hockenson.

It is still a long season and anything can happen, but the Vikings are set to blow away preseason expectations of 6.5 wins. They would be the first seed in the NFC playoffs if they started this weekend and have gone from mid-20s power rankings to top five in three weeks. Players like Harrison Smith and Aaron Jones are talking about something special with this team that they haven’t experienced before. Kevin O’Connell is now the favorite for Coach of the Year. Brian Flores is being talked about again as a potential in-demand head coach candidate. Sam Darnold has the second-best odds for Comeback player of the year and 11th-best odds for MVP- not bad for a quarterback who was a backup last season. Justin Jefferson has the second-best odds for Offensive Player of the Year, Dallas Turner second-best odds for Defensive Rookie of the Year, and Jonathan Greenard 9th best odds for Defensive Player of the Year. And new kicker Will Reichard hasn’t missed a field goal or extra point so far.

A lot is going well for the Vikings so far. Stay tuned.

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