Giants-Cowboys: What to expect when New York has the ball

How can the Giants take advantage of the Dallas defense?

The New York Giants host the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday Night Football for a pivotal Week 4 matchup between two 1-2 squads. The Cowboys and Giants’ lone wins each came against the Cleveland Browns; Dallas earned that 33-17 victory in Week 1.

The Cowboys were blown out at home against the Saints in Week 2 (44-19) and lost a close game to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 3 (28-25). The Cowboys are favored by 4.5 points, and the Over/Under is 43.5.

Ex-Dallas defensive coordinator Dan Quinn is now the head coach of the Washington Commanders, and former Minnesota Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer is now the defensive coordinator for Mike McCarthy and the Cowboys.

Statistics

Through three games, the Cowboys rank 30th in points surrendered per game, allowing 29.7 points per game. They also rank 29th in yards allowed per game, averaging 373.7 yards. Zimmer’s defense has excellent pass rushers and cornerbacks that have only surrendered 187 passing yards per game, ranking them 14th in the NFL.

The Cowboys rushing defense, however, is poor — very poor. They rank DEAD LAST in rushing yards allowed per game, with an average of 185.7 yards on the deck per contest. The Baltimore Ravens averaged 6.1 yards per rush, as the Baltimore rushed for 274 yards in Week 3. Derrick Henry had 151 yards on 25 carries with two touchdowns. Lamar Jackson also experienced success on designed rushes like the zone-read — this could be a way for the Giants to keep the Cowboys from aggressively attacking on the back side.

Klint Kubiak and the New Orleans Saints exploited the run defense in Week 2. Alvin Kamara rushed for 115 yards on 20 carries with three touchdowns, as the Saints averaged 4.9 YPC. The blueprint of physically dominating the Cowboys on the ground was established by the Saints. Cleveland wasn’t afforded the opportunity early in Week 1, as the Cowboys took an early lead.

Dallas ranks eighth in blitz rate with 22.2%, yet they have pressured the quarterback a league-high 38.9% of snaps. Much of that was due to their Week 1 victory over Cleveland, where they had 40 total pressures. That makes the post below relevant:

Run the ball

It’s only a three-game sample size, but the Cowboys have the worst Pro Football Focus team rush defense grade over the last 10 years. Dallas selected Mazi Smith in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft, but he has not performed well. He struggles to anchor against double-teams and was bullied in the last two games.

The Cowboys have the worst expected points contributed via the rushing attack, and they’ve surrendered a league-high eight rushing touchdowns on the ground. Mike Sando of The Athletic said it best:

“I don’t know how they stop anybody. They lost their best run defenders. They have a bunch of front-seven players that can’t get off blocks and get knocked back.”

The Giants traded Jordan Phillips to Dallas for a late-pick swap. He played a role in the defense before landing on the injured reserve. Osa Odighizuwa is a solid penetrating three-technique, but Dallas is forced to play 35-year-old Linval Joseph. Funny enough, one of the better run defending play from Week 3 was because of Joseph:

The lack of depth on the defensive line places a massive burden on the linebacker corps, which is filled with young explosive players, who aren’t elite run defenders, as well as the savvy veteran Eric Kendricks, who is a bit slower in his elder years. Demarvion Overshown, Damone Clark, and rookie Marist Liufau operate at the second level.

The depth issue is one problem, but missed tackles are another. Star edge defenders Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence have missed 26.7% and 31.3% of their tackles, respectively. The team has averaged ten missed tackles in each game through three contests. Both Lawrence and Parsons understand how to get after the passer — Giants’ fans know this well — and while they’re not bad run defenders, they’re handling more responsibility due to the defense lacking a spine.

Similar to the Giants in Week 2, the Cowboys’ defense is not playing as a unit against the run. They’re undisciplined with their fits and are chasing too frequently. If they continue this in Week 4 against the Giants, Singletary will have an opportunity to slice through them.

Conversely, the Giants showed exceptional rushing ability in Week 2 against the Washington Commanders. They established a ground approach with DUO, which should work well against this Dallas defensive front.

New York used more of a zone-read and split-zone rushing scheme against the Browns to counter their aggressive penetrating defense. The Giants were still stifled, and much of their success came on a game-sealing 43-yard crack-toss run:

Giants game plan

The Giants should lean on Singletary and work the play-action passing attack while paying attention to Parsons in protection. Force Dallas to stop the run and target Malik Nabers early and often; Nabers should see a lot of Trevon Diggs, who has allowed 10 catches on 14 targets for 86 yards. Diggs does have a pass defended and an interception.

The Giants should not be scared to run the football out of 11 personnel, depending on how the Cowboys match. Dallas will likely match 11 personnel with rookie Marist Liufau and the safety pairing of Malik Hooker and Donovan Wilson. 21 personnel with fullback Jakob Johnson, if he is available to the Giants on Thursday, is also an option — one that the Ravens successfully employed on Sunday.

The former has excellent range and operates well as a middle-of-the-field-closed safety, and Wilson is a bit bigger. He is a physical presence who has missed five tackles already this season.

I do expect 12 personnel and 13 personnel to enhance the rushing attack to start, but spreading the defense out and allowing Singletary to sift through the line of scrimmage against lighter personnel is an option that the Giants have successfully employed, as the chart states above.

The Ravens used unbalanced 13-personnel on this third-and-1 and Henry found the cut-back to the weak side for a 29-yard gain:

New York has not experienced much success rushing with Singletary out of 13 personnel on the season, but Dallas’ defense may rectify that.

Wan’Dale Robinson will see Jourdan Lewis in the slot. Brian Daboll designed quick and easy reads for Jones against the Browns’ zone defense. He consistently put one defender in conflict with three-man route concepts, and Daniel Jones efficiently delivered. Against Parsons, who has 18 pressures on the season, the Giants must get the football out of Jones’ hands quickly.

Parsons has aligned all over Zimmer’s front and has successfully harassed the opposing quarterback. However, he only has one sack on the season. Expect him in the A-Gap, on the edge, and at weak-side LB. New York will have Parsons circled and can frustrate him through presnap motion, and making him read on option plays, like the Ravens did:

Get the Cowboys guessing, running, and unsure of where they need to be to execute several possible assignments at the snap. Jones is not Lamar Jackson, but he is quite mobile and has done well in the past with similar plays in Daboll’s system:

Final thoughts

The Giants need to establish the run against this porous run defense. That will help the Giants work play action and keep the Cowboys’ defense — which lacks run discipline — on their toes and the field. When passing, the Giants can pick and chose their shot off play action for explosive play potential, but most passing plays should be quick game to get the football out of Jones’ hand and mitigate the risk that is Demarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons.