Get PFF+ for 30% off: Use promo code HOLIDAY30 to unlock the PFF Player Prop Tool, Premium Stats, fantasy dashboards, the PFF Mock Draft Simulator, industry-leading fantasy rankings and much more — everything you need to win your season.

Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) [Total: 41.5]

Game Overview

The Texans have a score to settle with the Chiefs after suffering a pair of losses at the hands of Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid in 2024, including being bounced in the divisional round. Both matchups played out nearly identically, with Kansas City covering the spread. 

Houston, down key weapons and struggling with a porous offensive line, had no answers for Kansas City’s game plan in those battles. Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo deployed a masterful strategy to force Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud to beat them left-handed, keying on Nico Collins to take away the last established receiver on the roster and throwing out stunts and blitzes.

This time around, the Texans have worked to improve those fatal flaws, starting up front. Houston’s overhauled offensive line took time to jell but has since impressed. Since Week 5, the unit has surrendered the sixth-lowest pressure rate (32.3%), highlighted by improvements against stunts (83.6 pass-blocking efficiency, fourth best) and blitzes (87.7, sixth best). Stroud is also getting the ball out quicker (2.87-second time to throw), so this offense won’t be left without answers in the face of pressure. 

But it’s the defense that continues to set the table for the Texans. Will Anderson Jr., Danielle Hunter and Derek Stingley Jr. highlight a group that stands atop the NFL in numerous categories. Most importantly, the defense doesn’t give up points lightly. Houston leads the NFL in scoring drive percentage allowed (26.4%), having allowed points on just 34 drives this season.

Given the Texans’ recent resurgence in betting markets, winning their past two games outright as an underdog, and the Chiefs’ failure to cover a game in November, the value in this matchup lies with Houston and the hook.

Explore Top Player Props

QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: Under 4.5 rush attempts (-138)

To no one’s surprise, the matchup between the Texans’ pass rush and one of the game’s best creators out of structure, Patrick Mahomes, will be the key. Mahomes has struggled to mitigate sacks in recent weeks, producing a 19.8% pressure-to-sack rate and tallying three or more sacks over the past five games. He has not surpassed this line since Week 6.

It’s a troubling trend, given that the Chiefs’ offensive line will be down three starters due to injuries: Trey Smith, Jawaan Taylor, and Josh Simmons. Jaylon Moore and Wanya Morris are expected to step in at the tackle spots, with Mike Caliendo filling in at guard — a lineup that struggled mightily at the tail end of Kansas City’s Week 13 matchup with the Cowboys. With Moore, Morris and Caliendo on the field, the Chiefs’ offensive line generated just a 15.8 PFF pass-blocking grade and a massive 50% pressure rate.

With Mahomes under fire left and right, finding lanes to escape collapsing pockets may be difficult to navigate. That also gives value to high-powered Texans pass rushers like Will Anderson Jr. to go over 0.75 sacks (-105).