The Kansas City Chiefs are 6-6 after Thanksgiving’s 31-28 loss to the Dallas Cowboys, which has put the team close to elimination from the postseason. Now the team has had a mini-bye to prepare for hosting the Houston Texans in this week’s episode of “Sunday Night Football.”
Here’s what I’ll be wondering as the Week 14 matchup gets underway.
1. With offensive line injuries, how will the Chiefs protect Patrick Mahomes?
The Houston defense features defensive end Will Anderson — who is playing like a Defensive Player of the Year candidate — and defensive end Danielle Hunter, who continues to play incredible football. They also get good pass rush from defensive tackles Tim Settle, Sheldon Rankins, Mario Edwards and Tommy Togiai, along with defensive ends Derek Barnett and Denico Autry. While Settle was just placed on the Texans’ Reserve/Injured list, those who remain can (and will) run a variety of stunts and slants to get their freak athletes looping inside very fast. They are, frankly, terrifying.
Unfortunately, the Kansas City offensive line is not healthy. Left tackle Josh Simmons has landed on the Reserve/Injured list after wrist surgery. Right guard Trey Smith and right tackle Jawaan Taylor are both doubtful for Sunday’s game. Even if they play, they likely won’t be at 100%.
There’s a real chance the Chiefs will be without 60% of their offensive line. That’s a nightmare. How could the team work around it?
For starters, it should play most of its snaps under center. I know head coach Andy Reid doesn’t want to do that, but getting into heavier personnel is a way to help the linemen. From a spread formation, the only way to support the offensive line is to double-chip both edges. This means just three passing routes can be run — which is far easier for the defense to cover
But by going under center, heavy personnel can pitch in on the protection — and it would help Kansas City’s running game. If you can only have two or three receivers in the concept, it’s better to pair them with play-action, which the offense can use to catch an aggressive defense napping. By leaning into an under-center game, Kansas City can hunt for deep passes as its runs slow down the aggressive Houston defensive front.
2. Can the Chiefs beat man coverage?
Given the offensive line, Kansas City cannot go into empty protection. That’s a tough matchup with how the team schemes its routes. The goal is to spread the field, allowing the Chiefs to hit as many quick-hitting passes as possible; the receivers can turn upfield to create yards after catch.
But the weakness of this offense has been beating man coverage. When defenses glove up the quick hitters, it becomes difficult for Kansas City to get its routes open — and that leads to offensive chaos.
The Texans’ defense is elite in man coverage, so it will either jam the Chiefs’ receivers or sit in quarters coverage, covering every crossing route. If Kansas City allows the Houston defense to play aggressively — and dictate the tone — it will be in trouble.
So the Chiefs will need a better game plan than what they had against the Broncos, who used a lot of man coverage to stifle the passing game. How can they do it?
That’s where going under center will help. It’s harder to jam against condensed formations — and in play-action, crossers can be sifted opposite the offensive line. Free releases — especially downfield — are possible.
I think throwing downfield must be the plan. With the current offensive situation, Kansas City won’t be able to sustain long drives. This was a problem against Denver, so the team should go in the opposite direction: hunting for more six-play drives instead of 12-play marches. While it will come with variance, I think this is how the Chiefs can score on Sunday.
3. Can the Chiefs’ defensive line wreck this game?
Speaking of shaky offensive line play… Houston also has issues. While the Texans are improving (and are on a four-game winning streak), their offensive line is still bad. In their victories, they played a mediocre Jacksonville Jaguars front four, the Tennessee Titans, the Buffalo Bills’ shaky front and the Indianapolis Colts without Pro Bowl defensive tackle DeForest Buckner. The last time Houston faced a legitimately good front — the Broncos — it scored just 15 points.
The Chiefs’ pass rush doesn’t compare to Denver’s, but it’s similar to Jacksonville’s — and the Jaguars had success. So this is a game where the Kansas City defense has to dominate up front. Defensive tackle Chris Jones is going to get his pick of bad interior offensive linemen. Can he put together another heroic performance? That’s what he did against the Colts — and while he was great against the Cowboys in the first quarter, he ran out of gas late in the game. With a 10-day interval (and being at home), Jones could have a dominant performance.
Defensive end George Karlaftis had a poor game against Dallas, too, so he also needs to be better. But this is a matchup where he should be able to feast.
Kansas City will need to make this a low-scoring game — and a strong pass rush can help make that happen.
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