• Top-10 picks are generally safe bets: From our 10-year sample, the average player from the group reached 108 targets for 67 catches, 885 receiving yards and five scores for 187.1 PPR points — enough for the WR34 last year.

• The Nos. 11-20 range has been shaky: Among the 13 players drafted in that range over the past 10 years, the average player has logged 66 targets for 40 catches, 544 receiving yards and three touchdowns, resulting in 111.17 PPR points, enough for just the WR71 in 2024.

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Estimated Reading Time: 11 minutes

Wide receivers are blue-chip pieces in fantasy football, potentially ahead of quarterbacks. They offer some of the best longevity at the position and can rack up PPR points out of sheer volume if not big plays. In a passing league, they present plenty of scoring opportunities.

Much of this holds true for real-life NFL teams, too. What teams look for in a dominant wide receiver has changed over the years. The typical, 6-foot-4 X receiver is still highly coveted (see: Drake London, A.J. Brown, Nico Collins and Davante Adams), but the league has seen a shift to smaller, more versatile pass catchers who can operate from a variety of alignments and be just as dangerous in space as they are down the boundary (see: Jaxon Smith-Njigba).

NFL teams taking wide receivers early in the first or second rounds are usually banking on them to make an immediate impact. That’s no different in fantasy. If you go heavy wide receiver at the top of your redraft leagues or sink premium draft capital into them in a dynasty format, success and failure can often come down to how well your pass catchers perform each week.

Since 2015, 47 wide receivers have been selected in the first round — an average of just over four a year, with 14 being picked in the top 10.

Those 14, in draft year order, are Amari Cooper, Kevin White, Corey Davis, Mike Williams, John Ross, Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Garrett Wilson, Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze, Travis Hunter and Tetairoa McMillan.

It’s a mysterious collection of players who will have powered fantasy rosters to championships on the high end and forced fantasy general managers to live out humiliating forfeits on the other, but what should the expectations be?

Of all the positions looked at so far in this series, this has been the trickiest. On the one hand, ranking the 14 players taken in the top 10 would follow the standard format, but that would exclude key players such as Justin Jefferson, Brian Thomas Jr. and Smith-Njigba, PFF’s top-graded wide receiver in 2025 (93.5 PFF overall grade).

Instead, we’re splitting it up several ways by draft positions (1-10, 11-20 and 20-32).

We’ll also take a look at target share, as rookie receivers inherit different workloads. Some receivers enter the NFL tasked with being the No. 1 targets right out of the gate, and others are drafted to be a high-end complement to another established receiver. Unlike running back or tight end, first-rounders at wide receiver aren’t always expected to feature heavily.

All that is to say, for the last time in this series, let’s get rolling.

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Let’s start with those 14 players selected in the top 10 since 2015. Here is how their rookie seasons looked and their fantasy finishes at the position in standard-scoring PPR leagues.

*Kevin White missed his rookie season due to a shin injury
**Mike Williams missed six games due to injury

Not including the final two players, as they are based on projections, the average from the group is 108 targets for 67 catches, 885 receiving yards and five scores for 187.1 PPR points — enough for the WR34.

When lifting Williams from the data set, as he saw only 23 targets, the average is 118 targets, 74 catches, 973 receiving yards and six touchdowns — enough for 205.6 PPR points (WR27).

Based on the above numbers and fantasy finishes, fantasy owners shouldn’t be expecting the world from any highly drafted rookie receivers, unless they’re truly special like Chase and Nabers. The group produced just four players with WR2 fantasy value or higher: Cooper, Chase, Waddle and Nabers. It’s a rather bleak outlook, considering the real-life and fantasy draft capital that was sunk into those players.

Open Chase’s Profile

Teams drafting these players clearly identified a need for a better air attack, as evidenced by their PFF passing grades the year before the above receivers were drafted.

These front offices were clearly concerned with the production they were getting from their quarterbacks and pass catchers.

Below are each team’s PFF receiving grades the year before the highly drafted receivers joined them.

Both data sets point to teams that were not spending premium picks on “luxury” players. They all needed those wide receivers that they drafted to make an immediate impact. So, the opportunity to garner solid volume right out of the gate was on the table, and volume is king for fantasy managers in PPR formats.

What about those picked from No. 11 overall to No. 20 overall? Since 2015, 13 receivers have been drafted in this range. In order of draft class, they are DeVante Parker, Nelson Agholor, Corey Coleman, Henry Ruggs III, Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Kadarius Toney, Chris Olave, Jameson Williams, Jahan Dotson, Treylon Burks, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Emeka Egbuka.

It’s an odd group. Lamb was an NFL superstar from day one, while Olave has been very good if not utterly dominant for the New Orleans Saints. The same is true for Williams and, so far, Egbuka. Meanwhile, Smith-Njigba looks to have earned his way into the NFL superstar receiver club.

But how did they all shake out in their rookie seasons?

*Jameson Williams missed most of his rookie season due to injury

While this group has produced two players of at least WR2 value — and likely three if Egbuka keeps up his current pace — it has largely underwhelmed. The average from the grouping is 66 targets for 40 catches, 544 receiving yards and three touchdowns, resulting in 111.17 PPR points, enough for the WR71 in 2024. That’s rough.

Open Egbuka’s Profile

If we remove Williams, who saw only eight targets, it doesn’t look much more palatable: 71 targets, 43 catches, 590 receiving yards and three touchdowns — enough for 120.8 points (WR67 in 2024). Again, that’s rough.

Yet again, though, opportunity was presenting itself. Of the above players, five were drafted by teams with a bottom-10 PFF passing grade the season before (Philadelphia Eagles, Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos and New Orleans Saints), and four of those five also earned a bottom-10 PFF receiving grade.

Many of these players were drafted into at least average passing attacks and should have benefited from either volume or higher-quality targets.

Finally, we’ll look at the players drafted from No. 21 overall to No. 32 overall over the past decade.

For the final time, in draft class order, they are Breshad Perriman, Phillip Dorsett, Will Fuller V, Josh Doctson, Laquon Treadwell, D.J. Moore, Calvin Ridley, Marquise Brown, N’Keal Harry, Jalen Reagor, Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk, Rashod Bateman, Quentin Johnston, Zay Flowers, Jordan Addison, Brian Thomas Jr., Xavier Worthy, Ricky Pearsall, Xavier Legette and Matthew Golden.

We won’t be going through all 21 individual rookie seasons, as it’s a lot of underwhelming data. Just know that it averaged out to 70 targets, 46 catches, 590 receiving yards and four touchdowns for 129 fantasy points — enough for the WR59 in 2024.

Golden’s 17-game pace in 2025 is 58 targets, 44 catches, 539 receiving yards and no touchdowns (for now). It puts him at WR80 by 2024 numbers.

The bottom line is that if you’re looking to draft a first-round receiver in dynasty, those taken in the top 10 are often a rollercoaster but at least have volume in their favor and the chance to carry a lackluster passing attack.

Going after these guys with premium picks in dynasty leagues will yield mixed returns in year one, but it’s a safer bet than trying to wait it out and grab somebody in the later rounds. Based on the collection of players listed, you can feel fine about them being WR2s with WR1 upside, and that’s a worthwhile asset.

For those receivers selected in the middle to the bottom end of the first round, fantasy managers may have to wait until year two to get better returns.