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Week 14 NFL Picks: Afternoon games carry significant NFC playoff weight

‘Tis the season for matchups with playoff implications. Week 14 of the NFL season (I can’t believe we have already finished 3 months) features at least six games where both teams are fighting for a playoff berth or jockeying for the division lead. The afternoon slate in particular will be one to watch in the […]


‘Tis the season for matchups with playoff implications. Week 14 of the NFL season (I can’t believe we have already finished 3 months) features at least six games where both teams are fighting for a playoff berth or jockeying for the division lead. The afternoon slate in particular will be one to watch in the NFC as the current #1 seed Chicago Bears travel to the Green Bay Packers. The winner will have sole possession of the NFC North. Meanwhile, with a Chicago loss, the Rams could easily reassert themselves as the NFC’s best. Here’s my prediction for how this week plays out…

Week 13 picks: 10-6, Cumulative picks: 122-70-1 (.634)

Week 14 Matchups & Predictions

(Thursday Night Football) Dallas Cowboys @ Detroit Lions, 8:15 PM EST

A great matchup to kick off Week 14. In my opinion, the winner of this game will make the playoffs. The loser is all but sure to miss out. The Cowboys have been the hotter hand; defeating the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs in the last two weeks. The offense is led by Dak Prescott, who is a top-5 quarterback in the NFL right now. The defense is playing better. The key is that they will have to stop Jahmyr Gibbs to come out with a road win. But don’t think that Dallas doesn’t remember Detroit running the score up on them last year…

Pick: Cowboys win 30-27

Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons, 1:00 PM EST

Even though the Falcons are going nowhere in 2025, Raheem Morris’s quarters defense will likely prevent the Seahawks from using their downfield passing attack. However, Seattle is going to be able to run the ball to manufacture 3rd & short situations to keep the chains moving. Atlanta allows the 25th most rushing yards per game (131.2 yards/game).

Pick: Seahawks 27-16

Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills, 1:00 PM EST

“He’s back!” Joe Burrow has returned and yes the Bengals have a shot at not only making the playoffs but winning the AFC North. And guess what, I think they will. I know Cincy’s defense is bad. But one way to make the defense better is to have an offense that can manufacture drives and allow the defense to play just “good” enough. I think we get a shootout between Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. Make no mistake, the Bengals need this game!

Pick: Bengals win 41-36

Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns, 1:00 PM EST

Will anyone watch this game? Myles Garrett will likely break the NFL sack record because it’s the Titans. But, how anticlimactic since he plays for the Cleveland Browns…

Pick: Browns win 23-15

Washington Commanders @ Minnesota Vikings, 1:00 PM EST

Remember when some writer on ESPN suggested that all four teams could make the playoffs. Clickbait. Vikings are clearly not making it (and Detroit is currently set to miss).

* Rams fans: this game is actually an important one. If the Commanders win and the Falcons lose, that will help the Rams 2026 first round pick they received from ATL

Pick: Commanders win 27-13

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets, 1:00 PM EST

The Dolphins have won 3 games in a row?!? I’m not sure how Miami will play in the colder temperatures at MetLife Stadium. But hey, why not save Mike McDaniel’s job!

Pick: Dolphins win 20-17

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1:00 PM EST

The Bucs likely feel the pressure that the Panthers are putting on them so they will need to keep up their pace in the NFC South. A favorable matchup with the Saints gives them a little cushion.

Pick: Buccaneers win 23-17

Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars, 1:00 PM EST

The sky could be falling in Indianapolis. Daniel Jones has a fracture in his fibula that will limit his ability down the stretch. Sauce Gardner suffered a calf injury this past week. He will need to be careful not to further jeopardize the calf or even his achilles. The Texans are catching up and now the Jaguars have won three straight. This will be a fun game with Jonathan Taylor, the NFL’s leading rusher facing off against Jacksonville, the NFL’s #1 rush defense.

Pick: Jaguars win 23-20 (OT)

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens, 1:00 PM EST

After winning 5 straight, the Ravens were whacked by Joe Burrow and the Bengals. I think this game carries more weight for Baltimore because of their impending schedule.

Pick: Ravens win 26-23

Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders, 4:05 PM EST

The Broncos seem to play down to their competition. And they won’t be able to win every close game at this rate.

But man their defense gets after the quarterback and the Raiders don’t have a way to stop that.

Pick: Broncos win 30-14

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers, 4:25 PM EST

Another juicy game with huge implications and definitely bad blood. It’s no secret that these teams hate each other. But Ben Johnson’s comments about Matt LaFleur will give Green Bay and the fans some extra fuel. Green Bay will look to slow down Chicago’s run-heavy attack. Because even with the 2nd best run game, Caleb Williams is pedestrian at quarterback.

Pick: Packers win 27-23

Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals, 4:25 PM EST

The Rams fell from the #1 seed in the NFC to #2 after their disappointing loss to Carolina in Week 13. On tap this week is a trip to Arizona. While this game could get overlooked because of both teams’ records, it’s actually very important to Los Angeles because they need to have a strong division record for potential tiebreakers at the end of the season.

Pick: Rams win 30-20

(Sunday Night Football) Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs, 4:25 PM EST

Another game where a winner probably makes the playoffs and the loser is out. At this point, I’m not sure Kansas City can hold off the Houston pass rush.

Pick: Texans win 21-17

(Monday Night Football) Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Chargers, 8:15 PM EST

The storyline here is Justin Herbert’s health. Will he play? If he doesn’t, PHI wins for sure.

The Chargers defense is stout while the Eagles are inefficient on offense. I’m curious to see how Philadelphia tries to move the ball because Los Angeles can stop the run and pass.

Really, it’s a coin flip. But I see shades of 2023 for Philadelphia…

Pick: Chargers win 20-17

Teams on Bye: New England Patriots, New York Giants, San Francisco 49ers, Carolina Panthers

Are the Rams being too “easy” on themselves for their loss at Carolina? Will they respond and dominate the inferior Cardinals? Who are your picks for Week 14? Comment below.

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