After the Packers handed the Lions another disappointing Thanksgiving—completing the season sweep and flipping the script after Dan Campbell previously had Matt LaFleur’s number, while adding insult to injury with fourth-down success—Detroit now finds itself backed against the wall in terms of postseason survival. As Campbell put it this week, “time’s running out,” and the Lions must find a way to win the game in front of them.
Following losses in three of their last five games since the bye, Detroit now faces a red-hot Cowboys team in the Lions’ third straight home game. As the Lions have slid to their lowest point of the season, the Cowboys, meanwhile, have won three straight to re-enter the NFC playoff picture, including statement wins over the Eagles and Chiefs—two teams that handed Detroit a butt-kicking. The common narrative from national media being two ship’s passing in the night in arguably the best “Thursday Night Football” matchup of the season.
Despite their struggles, the Lions still deserve some faith. They’re undermanned on offense, but they were in Week 14 TNF last season as well—and still found a way to gut out a win in Green Bay while decimated on defense.
This preview dives into five key statistical matchups that will determine whether Detroit can come out on top in another chapter of the never-boring Cowboys-Lions series.
Note: Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics are sourced from NFL Pro, TruMedia, FTN Fantasy, or Pro Football Reference.
You may be surprised to hear that I’m not referring to the Cowboys’ three-headed monster that you’re thinking of in Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and George Pickens—but their newly formed interior defensive line trio.
The newly acquired All-Pro Quinnen Williams, recently added nose tackle Kenny Clark, and Osa Odighizuwa (who signed a four-year, $80M extension in March) have transformed the heart of Dallas’ defense. Along with the return of DeMarvion Overshown and the addition of Logan Wilson, that group has fueled the unit’s turnaround and recent winning streak. All three interior linemen are averaging at least 39.3 snaps per game over that span.
They’ve effectively done what the Lions have been trying to replicate: balancing heavy interior snap counts among Alim McNeill, DJ Reader, Tyleik Williams, and Roy Lopez. In the process, Dallas has also freed up its deep edge rotation of Donovan Ezeiruaku, Jadeveon Clowney, Sam Williams, James Houston IV, and Dante Fowler by resetting the roles and putting those players further in positions to succeed.
One of Detroit’s most surprising shortcomings this season has been how often its offensive line—particularly on the inside — has been overpowered at the point of attack. Physically, schematically, and from a communication standpoint, cohesion hasn’t always been there.
The Lions are:
- 4-0 when they average more than 2.0 yards before contact per carry
- 4-0 when Jared Goff is not sacked
No unit holds more influence over Detroit’s fate than the offensive line—and Thursday night will present one of its toughest challenges yet, similar to the Eagles matchup earlier this season.
Cowboys’ defense — Weeks 1–10 vs. Weeks 11–13
- 6.1 yards/play (29th) → 5.3 (T-17th)
- 51.9% success rate (31st) → 46.0% (T-16th)
- -0.15 EPA/play (31st) → +0.10 (21st)
- 13.0% explosive play rate (28th) → 11.4% (20th)
- 1.83 YBC/rush (28th) → 0.32 (3rd)
- 39.7% pressure rate (9th) → 41.7% (3rd)
- 52.6% third-down rate (32nd) → 35.1% (9th)
- 1.2% turnover rate (27th) → 1.7% (t-20th)
While red-zone defense remains an issue, Dallas has made notable strides across the board. Overall, they spent most of the first two and a half months defensively as a massive liability, really only the Bengals defense being worse, and now they’ve turned into a competent, capable defense that can provide their dangerous offense with a competent counterpart unit. The Cowboys’ defense, bolstered by Williams, are well equipped to provide consistent pocket pressure, throttle rushing lanes, and—most impressively—now can stop offenses in their tracks on third down after being a pushover.
They now force a three-and-out on 35.5% of possessions over the last three weeks (11th)—nearly a 10% jump from earlier in the season. Their most impressive showing came on Thanksgiving, forcing punts on five of Kansas City’s final seven drives.
Detroit cannot allow this defensive front to impose its will early and flip another game into uphill, chase mode. Potentially without Amon-Ra St. Brown, Campbell’s offense—in his fifth week calling plays—must find dependable production. This will test the Lions’ ability to adapt, especially with Graham Glasgow back in, Kayode Awosika (or his replacement) filling in, and Tate Ratledge continuing to gain experience.
Boxing up half a dozen
Detroit’s offensive personnel is familiar with Cowboys defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus. The last time they saw the former Bears head coach, he was sent to the unemployment line not long after.
Unlike his Bears units, which rarely used light boxes, Eberflus’ Cowboys are running a lighter front on 48.2% of opponent rushes (11th). Over the last three weeks, that number has jumped to 60.2%—second-highest in the league—following the addition of Quinnen Williams.
However, they have struggled when doing so.
Cowboys light box run defense (Weeks 11–13)
- 6.2 yards/rush (T-25th)
- 45.0% rushing offensive success rate (21st)
- -0.17 EPA/rush (24th)
- 11.5% explosive run rate (22nd)
- 1.77 yards before contact/rush (13th)
- 4.42 yards after contact/rush (28th)
- 3.8% run stuff rate (24th)
Ironically, when Dallas loads the box (7+ defenders), they have the best yards per rush, rushing success rate, EPA per rush, explosive run rate, yards before contact per rush (-1.07), and run stuff rate in the league (on 27 such carries) in that same span—a massive contrast.
The data shows a clear split as of late: when Dallas commits extra bodies to the box, it becomes one of the league’s best run defenses. When it plays light, that advantage disappears.
Detroit must exploit this tendency through personnel and design, making life easier for their offensive line’s assignments and creating wider lanes for Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Allow Ratledge and Penei Sewell to anchor the right side and let the run game’s explosiveness take center stage. Success on early downs would also give Goff cleaner, more manageable passing situations—especially in the continued adjustment to life after Sam LaPorta and if St. Brown is unavailable.
After a shaky 2024, Dak Prescott is playing some of the best football of his career. The additions of George Pickens and Javonte Williams—both enjoying career years along with development along the young offensive line have revived Dallas’ offense under new coordinator Klayton Adams.
Like Goff, Prescott has consistently punished teams for blitzing him. Since the break, he’s been surgical.
Prescott vs. the blitz — Weeks 11–13
- 32 dropbacks (10th)
- 129.3 passer rating (1st)
- 81.3% completion percentage (1st)
- 10.7 yards/attempt (2nd)
- 3 passing touchdowns (2nd)
- 66.7% passing success rate (2nd)
- +0.52 EPA/dropback (3rd)
- 21.2% explosive pass rate (5th)
- 50.0% pressure rate (28th)
Simply sending extra rushers isn’t enough; the pass rush must be paired with smart deception and tight coverage.
After blitzing on the fourth-highest rate of dropbacks last season (33.7%), the Lions have dialed it back to 25.0% (18th) this season, with a small uptick to 29.4% (10th) over the last three weeks. They still own the seventh-best passing success rate when blitzing (41.5%), along with an 8.5% sack rate (12th).
After Jameis Winston torched Detroit for 12.1 yards per attempt and a touchdown on 11 blitzed dropbacks (despite a 63.6% pressure rate), the Lions responded better against Jordan Love. On Thanksgiving, Love went just 3-of-8 for 11 yards when facing Kelvin Sheppard’s pressure packages.
Finding the right recipe for sending second-level defenders—while still keeping enough bodies in coverage—will be a development that could determine whether Detroit disrupts Dallas’ rhythm or plays right into it.
Motion granted
One avenue that first-year head coach Brian Schottenheimer and first-year offensive coordinator Klayton Adams have leaned into is motion—not just pre-snap, but motion at the snap—to try to create leverage and confusion for Dallas’ playmakers
Dak Prescott passing with motion at snap
- 14.2 attempts/game (1st)
- 57 passing first downs (3rd)
- 98.7 passer rating (16th)
- 67.1% completion percentage (16th)
- 7.3 yards/attempt (19th)
- 45.3% passing success rate (27th)
- 0.23 EPA/dropback (6th)
- 8.2% explosive play rate (24th)
- 3.6 YAC/attempt (34th)
Dallas is using motion at the snap for Prescott more than any quarterback in any season over the last three years, but they aren’t having overwhelming success with it. In fact, by most measures, Prescott is actually more efficient without it.
Still, the Lions must be prepared to defend it—especially in man coverage—where timing, communication, and spacing can be stressed.
Detroit is only facing 7.8 dropbacks per game against motion at the snap and is allowing just a 58.5% completion rate (6th) and a 47.9% success rate (13th) against it. However, they are allowing 8.0 yards per attempt (27th) and a 13.8% explosive pass rate (30th) in those situations. The Lions’ defense has been strong on a down-to-down basis, but big plays continue to expose a recurring vulnerability
If Detroit can stay disciplined through the eye candy—communicating cleanly and passing off routes without hesitation—it forces Dallas back into straight dropback football, where this Lions defense can be more comfortable. Preventing the Cowboys from relying on motion at snap is one of the keys to not letting the Cowboys control the game.
Hutch hunch
Even elite players go through down stretches, especially when they’re working their way back from a significant leg injury. A slump doesn’t suddenly erase talent or high-level effort because of a new contract. Aidan Hutchinson hasn’t played to his or the team’s standard over the last month, but it feels far more like a short-term dip than any long-term decline. If anything, he looks like a quiet volcano ready to erupt.
He’ll get the chance to do that against the same franchise that his season ended against last year—and a quarterback he’s historically treated like a shrimp ready for the barbie. Against Dallas over the last three seasons, Hutchinson has treated Prescott like something on the end of a skewer: 11 tackles (8 solo), 5.5 sacks, 6 tackles for loss, 15 total pressures, and a forced fumble. Chef Hutch has already chewed this team up, and now he has another inviting matchup on the edge.
With second-year left tackle Tyler Guyton out, Hutchinson will see a mix of former seventh-rounder Nate Thomas and then right tackle Terence Steele. Steele has been inconsistent this season despite a stronger stretch during Dallas’ recent run, while Thomas has largely struggled. In two spot starts and three relief appearances, Thomas is Pro Football Focus’ 80th-graded tackle (45.4 overall grade) among 83 qualifiers, allowing 11 total pressures and two penalties on 129 pass-blocking reps, with a 94.9 pass-blocking efficiency that ranks 68th.
See More:
