It’s not quite a must-win game, but it’s just about as close as you can get to one. The Detroit Lions’ playoff odds with a loss to the Dallas Cowboys would drop their odds of making it to the postseason to just 12%, while a win would jump their probability to 45% (per the New York Times).
The stakes have not been higher this year, so the Lions are going to need some heroics from their roster. Whether it’s stopping the Cowboys’ high-powered offered, or trying to run on their new-and-improved defensive front, the Lions have their work cut out against a surging Dallas team.
So today’s Question of the Day is:
Which Lions player is key to victory over the Cowboys?
My answer: Let’s start with the defense, since that is the side of the ball that is under most scrutiny right now. Pass rush has obviously been a big issue, with Detroit’s time to pressure (2.92) the longest in the NFL. If the Lions let Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott sit in the pocket all day long, it’s going to be trouble. Prescott currently ranks seventh in EPA/dropback, second in passing yards, and fourth in completion percentage over expected on passing plays where he has at least 2.5 seconds to throw.
It’s time for Aidan Hutchinson to break out of his funk. While I think his “poor” play is being exaggerated by some, it’s also abundantly clear he’s not impacting the game like other star defensive ends like Myles Garrett and Micah Parsons do—with just as much attention given to them. I don’t care how much attention you’re getting, if you want to call yourself an elite pass rusher, 2.5 sacks in the last six games isn’t enough. In an ideal world, Hutchinson would be getting more help, but that ship has sailed. Time to be a one-man wrecking crew.
On offense, I’m going to stick with the trenches. Detroit’s running game has been extremely inconsistent this year, and while the Cowboys’ season-long statistics against the run make them look vulnerable, they’re a transformed defense with Quinnen Williams now aboard after the trade deadline. It appears Graham Glasgow is trending towards returning from his knee injury, and it will largely be on him, Tate Ratledge, and whoever played left guard to ensure Detroit’s running game is humming. It’s hard to imagine Detroit keeping up in a shootout against a Cowboys offense, especially given they’re likely to be down their top two tight ends and two of their top three receivers.
But if the Lions can draw out possessions with a good running game, keep Prescott on the sidelines, and stay in favorable down-and-distances, they have a chance to keep this one close for all four quarters.
Which players do you view as key to a Lions’ victory over the Cowboys? Share your answer in the comment section at the bottom of the page.
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