For the first time in his career, Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is a front-runner for the NFL’s MVP award. Throughout his career, Stafford has just one top-10 vote for MVP, and that came in 2023. Stafford has been unbelievable for most of this season. He has 32 touchdowns to four interceptions and has led the Rams to a 9-3 record. The Rams quarterback just broke the record for most touchdown passes between interceptions at 28.
However, Stafford has played two of his worst games of the season over the last three weeks. He threw for just 130 yards and completed 53.6 percent of his passes against the Seattle Seahawks. Against the Panthers, he was credited for two interceptions and a fumble. Stafford’s pick-six gave the Panthers early hope while his fumble late in the game ended a potential fourth-quarter comeback.
The MVP race is one that tends to get analyzed over one-game, weekly samples by the national media. Following a game in which he turned the ball over three times, the narrative around Stafford has shifted slightly. That doesn’t mention that New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye threw for 282 yards and two touchdowns in a win on primetime.
Technically, Stafford is no longer the MVP favorite. However, it is very close. According to the sportsbooks, Stafford is +125 to win MVP while Maye is -135. The primary issue here is how the media analyzes the MVP race in one-game, weekly samples throughout the season. The MVP race is discussed like power rankings. It’s a reflection of the current reactionary sports media in combination with the short attention span of consumers of the product. Just because something was the last thing we saw does not make it the overall reality. Maye also got the primetime boost as the Patriots beat the New York Giants on Monday Night Football.
What Maye is doing is certainly commendable. At the same time, the Patriots have played only one team with more than three wins since mid-October. Despite the uncharacteristic performance from Stafford, he is still at or near the top in several major quarterback categories.
| Matthew Stafford | Drake Maye | |
| EPA/DB | 0.15 (4th) | 0.22 (1st) |
| Passer Rating | 111.7 (2nd) | 111.9 (1st) |
| Passing Success % | 54.1% (1st) | 52.5% (3rd) |
| QBR | 67 (3rd) | 72.8 (4th) |
| DVOA | 34.5% (1st) | 18.7% (9th) |
| DYAR | 1235 (1st) | 766 (6th) |
| PFF Grade | 92.4 (1st) | 87.1 (4th) |
| CPOE | 2.4 (13th) | 8.2 (1st) |
| YPA | 7.7 (8th) | 8.8 (1st) |
| ANY/A | 8.18 (1st) | 8.04 (3rd) |
| Big Time Throw % | 6.1 (2nd) | 5.4 (5th) |
| Avg. Ranking | 3.36 | 3.45 |
Over 11 advanced quarterback stats, an average ranking of 0.09 separates them. It is very close, but Stafford still has the slight advantage. Next week, the Rams play the Arizona Cardinals while Maye and the Patriots have a bye. That could put Stafford in the lead again.
Additionally, the Rams play the Detroit Lions in what should be the NFL’s nationally televised Sunday afternoon game and the Game of the Week. Following that game, the Rams play the Seahawks in primetime on Thursday Night Football before playing the Atlanta Falcons on Monday Night Football the following week.
Much like Maye this past week, Stafford will have an opportunity over the next month to make his MVP case with many eyes watching him. If the Rams win those three games, that could also see them back atop the NFC at the No. 1 one seed.
At the end of the day, it’s important to remember that the NFL season isn’t just one week old. We’ve played 12 games and Stafford has played at an MVP level in a majority of those. With five games to go, it’s going to be a race to the finish.
