Last week was terrible for the Detroit Lions’ postseason chances. Not only was their loss to the Green Bay Packers a devasating blow to their divisional chances, but every team they are likely to battle for a Wild Card spot pulled out a Week 13 victory. That list includes the Packers, Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys, Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, Carolina Panthers, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Detroit’s playoff chances plummeted anywhere from 28 to 43 percent in a single week, depending on which playoff simulator you prefer.
But this week’s game against the Dallas Cowboys provides the Lions a big opportunity to swing the percentage way back up. A win will have them gain ground in the NFC North—seeing as the Bears and Packers play each other—and it will also sink the Cowboys’ playoff odds to single digits, giving the Lions some cushion behind them.
Let’s take a look at Detroit’s current playoff odds, and how much they can swing this week.
Lions’ odds to make the playoffs:
New York Times: 30% (-43% from last week)
FTN Fantasy (DVOA): 50.0% (-32%)
ESPN: 44% (-28%)
NextGenStats: 43% (-33%)
Only FTN Fantasy is giving the Lions a 50/50 shot at the playoffs, but ESPN and NextGenStats provide more hope than expected given Detroit’s current trajectory.
New York Times’ model is by far the least optimistic. If you’re wondering about their methods, here’s how they explain it:
“We estimate each team’s probability of winning each remaining game using a statistical forecast that incorporates a host of data, including team records, roster changes, weather, game location and more advanced measures like expected points added and success rate.”
Unfortunately, only the New York Times model allows us to see how playoff probabilities change based on future outcomes. And when it comes to the Lions vs. Cowboys game, it’s a massive swing:
If the Lions win: 45% chance at playoffs
If the Lions lose: 12% chance at playoffs
To give you a sense of just how important this game is, if the Lions lost it—then won their remaining four games—the NYT simulator gives them just a 90% chance at the playoffs, even at an 11-6 record. Any combination of a 3-1 record after a loss to the Cowboys puts the Lions’ playoff odds at 25% or lower.
But if they win it, a 3-1 record in the final four games puts the Lions’ playoff odds at 95% or higher… provided that one loss doesn’t come against the Bears. But even if they do lose that game to the Bears and win every other game, their odds still would sit at 83%. Detroit could even go 2-2 after a win over the Cowboys and still have a moderate chance at the postseason, with their odds sitting between 15-41 percent depending on where those losses came.
Odds to win NFC North
New York Times: Lions: 5% (-28%)
FTN Fantasy (DVOA): 8.9% (-34.0%)
ESPN: Lions: 8% (-24%)
The Lions’ NFC North chances aren’t quite dead, but they are on life support. Their best chance at a division title likely rests with a split between the Bears’ and Packers’ two remaining matchups, but that would also be the worst-case scenario for the Lions’ odds to make the playoffs. The goal should be jumping just one of those teams at this point, not both.
Super Bowl odds
- 4% (-2%) to win the Super Bowl
- 5.5% (-6.1%) to appear in the Super Bowl
- 3.3% (-3.3%) to win the Super Bowl
- 5% (-5%) to make the Super Bowl
Pick your meme:
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