The Detroit Lions haven’t done themselves any favors when it comes to their playoff chances. They’re just 3-4 in their last seven games, and they’ve dropped critical games to the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers. In addition to that, though, they’ve gotten a tremendous amount of bad luck when it comes to games out of their control. In Week 13, Detroit again essentially got zero help from the other NFC matchups, and their playoff odds (per the NYT simulator) dropped from 73% after Week 12 to just 30% now.
Let’s take a closer look at the divisional and conference playoff races.
NFC North playoff race:
- Bears: 9-3
- Packers: 8-3-1
- Lions: 7-5
- Vikings: 4-8
The bad news for Detroit is that their odds to win the NFC North have plummeted to just 4 percent, according to the New York Times. The good news is that the dim light of hope is kept alive by the fact that the Packers and Bears still have to play each other twice in the final five weeks. If winning the division is the goal for Detroit, a best-case scenario may be a Bears sweep—handing the Packers two critical losses. The Lions will still be able to make up one game on Chicago with their head-to-head matchup in Week 18, and as long as Chicago loses one of their other games (vs. Browns, @49ers), Detroit could catch them.
But all of that seems fairly far-fetched and essentially requires the Lions to win-out. A more realistic outcome is for the Lions to win a Wild Card playoff spot, and the Packers sweeping the Bears is the best outcome for those chances. Let’s take a look at the full playoff picture and explain:
NFC North playoff picture
Division leaders:
- Bears: 9-3
- Rams: 9-3
- Eagles: 8-4
- Buccaneers: 7-5
Wild Card race (top three advance):
5. Seahawks: 9-3
6. Packers: 8-3-1
7. 49ers: 9-4
8. Lions: 7-5
9. Cowboys: 6-5-1
10. Panthers: 7-6
Note: Every NFC team not listed has below a 1% chance to make the postseason
In Week 13, the Lions only got one game outcome in their favor: The Rams losing to the Panthers. And even that outcome has a downside: the Panthers are still in the playoff race now. While I think it’s unlikely a second NFC West team makes the postseason—especially with the Bucs and Panthers playing each other two more times—it certainly a bit unnerving to see another team hanging around. Catching the Rams is unlikely, but it’s still on the table for the Lions. Detroit is just two games behind them, and with a head-to-head match in Week 15, they could clear one right there and win the primary tiebreaker.
The rest of the outlook remains the same. The Lions’ best shot at making the playoffs involves jumping the Bears, Seahawks, Packers, or 49ers—while keeping the trailing Cowboys and Panthers at bay. Frustratingly, all six of those teams won this past week.
Despite their big win over the Eagles on Friday, the Bears remain the most likely team for the Lions to jump. Their schedule remains daunting:
- at Packers (8-3-1)
- vs. Browns (3-9)
- vs. Packers (8-3-1)
- at 49ers (9-4)
- vs. Lions (7-5)
There are losses still to be handed out in the NFC playoff race, and because Detroit has the opportunity to beat the Bears head-to-head—and maintain their primary head-to-head tiebreaker—they are the team Lions fans should be hoping to tank.
But to illustrate how deep of a hole the Lions are currently in, even if the Bears get swept by the Packers and lose to the Lions—but win their other two games—they’ll finish at 11-6. That means the Lions still need to go 4-1 in their final five games just to finish with the same record—and they’d get in ahead of them because of the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Lions really need the Bears to completely fall off—meaning go 1-4—for them to have any sort of comfortable wiggle room here.
The other most likely crash-out option is likely the Packers. Their final five games are:
- vs. Bears (9-3)
- at Broncos (10-2)
- at Bears (9-3)
- vs. Ravens (6-6)
- at Vikings (4-8)
If the Packers go 2-3 over that course—a distinct possibility—the Lions would pass them with a 4-1 record over their final five. If Green Bay drops four of their final five, again, the Lions would have wiggle room to go 3-2. But remember that if the Lions go 3-2, it’s possible the Panthers or Cowboys surpass them, especially if one of those losses come to the Cowboys.
In short, you really want either the Packers or Bears to sweep the other one. And once that happens, you hope the losing team continues to lose.
Additionally, this week’s game against the Cowboys is essential. A loss to Dallas would drop Detroit’s playoff odds to just 12% (per NYT). A win would catapult postseason odds to 44% (and drop Dallas’ odds to 9%).
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