Welcome to the New York Giants betting angle, Week 13 edition. Each week, I’m giving you my three favorite wagers for that week’s New York Giants game. My one rule: I won’t ever give you wagers that are less than -120. No gimmies here.
The 2-10 Giants head to New England to face the 10-2 Patriots on Monday night to cap the NFL slate for Thanksgiving weekend, and this season has yet to see a game with incoming streaks like this one has. The Patriots have won nine straight (the longest winning streak in the NFL this season), and the Giants have lost six straight (tied with several teams for the longest current losing streak). Will it continue? Probably, but the Giants continue to play hard and show that they can hang with just about anyone, at least until midway through the fourth quarter.
After blowing their fifth double-digit lead on the road in an overtime loss at Detroit last week, the Giants finally fired defensive coordinator Shane Bowen. Will it make a difference? We’ll see. Big Blue got completely gashed by Jahmyr Gibbs last week, and stopping the run has been a huge problem all season and probably will be again on Monday night. On the plus side, the Patriots’ offensive line is banged up, and they already had protection issues in front of Drake Maye. Getting after the QB is something the Giants do well, led by Brian Burns.
Jaxson Dart will be back under center for the G-Men, after missing the last two games with a concussion that he suffered late in the team’s Week 10 loss at the Bears. Whether he’ll continue to run as much as he did before the injury is an open question, but it factors into my thinking as you’ll see below.
The line on FanDuel is NE -7.5, with a game total of 46.5. 10-2 at 2-10 and the line is only 7.5? Yup, and I actually like the Giants getting that hook, but the juice on that is minus-120 which I don’t like, so I’m staying away.
My picks were 2-1 last week, although I needed overtime for one of the bets to cash. Let’s keep it going.
Here are this week’s picks. All lines and odds are from FanDuel and are as of Friday, Nov. 28.
- Jaxson Dart OVER 29.5 pass attempts (-108). Dart has gone over this total in three of seven starts, and was at 29 attempts when he got hurt at Chicago early in the fourth quarter. Three things lead me to this prop. First, New England has the league’s #1-ranked rushing defense, and while the Giants will try to run the ball, they’ll need to throw to move the chains. Second, I expect a little less running from Dart as he learns to protect himself. He led all QBs in designed runs from Weeks 4-10. Third, I think the Giants will probably be chasing points. 30 pass attempts isn’t all that many.
- Tyrone Tracy OVER 2.5 receptions (-106). Running the ball on New England is very hard, but they’ve been vulnerable to running backs through the air. The 65 receptions they’ve allowed to RBs is second most in the NFL and even if you adjust for the extra game they’ve played (like the Giants, their Bye is next week), it’s still among the five most. Tracy only has 21 catches on the season, but he’s gone over this total each of the last two weeks, albeit with a different quarterback. I like the converted receiver to get his share of dump-offs and screens this week and especially with Dart likely to run a little less.
- Stefon Diggs longest reception UNDER 19.5 yards (-118). I had trouble finding a third wager that I liked. I settled on this one, even though Drake Maye is an excellent deep-ball thrower. Diggs has thrived this season as a short-to-intermediate depth receiver. His average reception goes for 11 yards, his average depth of target (ADOT) is 8.6 yards, and his long catch for the season is just 33 yards. His yards-after-catch (YAC), which used to be a huge part of his game when he was younger, is modest at about 3.5 yards per reception this season. Take the under.
Those are the picks for Week 13. Good luck with your wagers!
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