• Defending Davante Adams one-on-one has been a nightmare for opposing defenders: The star pass-catcher has scored 11 touchdowns against single coverage this season, five more than any other player. Separation hasn’t mattered much either, with five of those touchdowns coming on contested targets. Even so, the Panthers should give him a tougher test, with cornerbacks Mike Jackson and Jaycee Horn both ranking top-five at the position in catch rate allowed in single coverage (35%).

• Buffalo will look to get its pass rush back on track this week against a vastly improved Pittsburgh offensive line: Through the first nine weeks, the Bills generated pressure at a 43% rate, the second-highest mark in the league. That production has fallen off sharply, dropping to just 24% from Weeks 10–12, which ranks 31st over that stretch.

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NFL Week 13 is here, and with it comes a fresh wave of advanced data and analysis.

PFF’s media research team has been hard at work this week, preparing for kickoff — pulling data-driven insights and talking points for our broadcast partners around the league. Now, we’re sharing those same nuggets with you. So, whether you’re looking to win your fantasy matchup, hit on your bets or just get smarter about the game, these are the key storylines to know for every Week 13 contest.

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Los Angeles Rams @ Carolina Panthers

Defending Davante Adams one-on-one has been a nightmare for opposing defenders, as the star pass-catcher has scored 11 touchdowns against single coverage this season, five more than any other player. Separation hasn’t mattered much either, with five of those touchdowns coming on contested targets. Even so, the Panthers should give him a tougher test, with cornerbacks Mike Jackson and Jaycee Horn both ranking top-five at the position in catch rate allowed in single coverage (35%).

On the other sideline is rookie receiver Tetairoa McMillan, who has impressed with his separation and big-play ability. This season, 600 of McMillan’s 783 receiving yards have come on targets after he’s gotten open, and his 19 explosive plays on those targets lead the NFL. He draws a Rams cornerback group that rarely allows clean wins and ranks first among groups in open-target rate allowed 33%.

San Francisco 49ers @ Cleveland Browns

Shedeur Sanders‘ ascension into the Browns’ offense has given the deep passing game an immediate boost. Over his six starts, Dillon Gabriel attempted only eight deep passes, resulting in two completions for 44 yards, one touchdown and one interception. In just six quarters of action, Sanders has already attempted seven deep passes, completing three for 116 yards. The 49ers have allowed the seventh-most deep completions (20) and deep passing yards (636) this season while giving up five touchdowns against two interceptions.

The return of George Kittle has been a welcome addition to the 49ers offense, with the star tight end ranking top-two at the position with 29 catches for 304 yards and 17 conversions since Week 8. He has been especially effective on third down, catching all nine of his targets for seven conversions, including four touchdowns. The Browns rank second in third-down defense this season with a 34% conversion rate allowed.

Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts

Nico Collins’ ability to get vertical has separated him from the rest of the Texans receiving group this season. His 298 receiving yards on vertical routes ranks third in the league and exceeds the total of all other Texans pass-catchers combined. He is also one of four receivers with more than 1,000 yards on vertical routes going back to 2023. Colts corners have allowed only seven catches on those routes, tied for the third-fewest, but they’ve given up big gains at an average of 37.0 yards per reception.

The matchup on the edges between the Texans’ pass rush and the Colts’ pass protection will be one to watch. Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter have been a ferocious edge duo, combining for 121 total pressures, 17 more than the next-closest pair, and they are the only teammates with 10-plus sacks each this season. They’ve also shown up late in games, co-leading the league with 5.5 fourth-quarter sacks. On the other side, the Colts tackle group, led by Bernhard Raimann and Braden Smith, has produced the second-best pass-block grade (78.3) and the fifth-lowest pressure rate allowed (10%).

New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins

Demario Davis continues to grade well in run defense for the Saints. In six of his eight seasons with the team, he has earned a run-defense grade above 80.0, including this year. His 89.1 run-defense grade ranks ninth among linebackers and is on pace to be a career high. His 28 stops in run defense is tied with Jack Campbell for the most at the position.

Pull lead has been Miami’s strongest run concept this season. The Dolphins use it at the third-highest rate among offenses (12.3%). While it doesn’t make up a large share of their overall rushing volume, they’ve been one of the league’s most explosive rushing attacks when pulling their linemen. On pull-lead runs, they rank third in yards per attempt (9.8) and second in explosive-rush rate (32.3%).

Atlanta Falcons @ New York Jets

Last week against the Saints, the Falcons’ pass rush delivered one of its most impressive outings of the season, generating a season-high 16 quick pressures. Atlanta finished with 20 total pressures and did so without relying on the blitz. Their 20% blitz rate was a season low, a sharp shift for a defense that entered Week 12 with the second-highest blitz rate in the NFL at 51%.

In just a few weeks with the Jets, John Metchie III has quickly emerged as a key piece of their passing attack. His seven targets last week matched a career high, and his 42 yards after the catch set a new personal best while also marking the highest YAC total by any Jets wide receiver this season.

Arizona Cardinals @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Since taking over as the starter in Week 6, Jacoby Brissett has been highly efficient when operating from a clean pocket. His 78% completion rate leads all quarterbacks during that span, and his 116.1 passer rating when kept clean ranks seventh. He has also thrown 11 touchdown passes from a clean pocket, tied for the third most in the league since becoming the starter.

The Buccaneers defense will look to regroup after turning in its least effective pass-rush performance of the season in Week 12 against the Rams. Tampa Bay generated just a 17% pressure rate, the lowest single-game mark of the Todd Bowles era since his arrival as defensive coordinator in 2019. The Buccaneers will head back to the drawing board in hopes of reestablishing the aggressive, disruptive rush that typically anchors Bowles’ defensive identity.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans

The return of tight end Brenton Strange gave the Jaguars’ passing game a noticeable lift, as the third-year player recorded a career-high 93 receiving yards against the Cardinals. His reintroduction to the lineup also came with a shift in deployment. Strange lined up in-line on 58% of his receiving snaps, his highest rate of the season, signaling a more traditional tight end role and expanded responsibilities in Jacksonville’s offense.

Rookie Cam Ward delivered one of his best performances under pressure last week against Seattle. He completed a season-high 63% of his throws while under duress, producing 119 passing yards — also a season best on pressured attempts.

Over the past two weeks, Ward has shown increased escapability. He has five scrambles on 38 pressured dropbacks, a notable jump from the seven scrambles on 128 pressured dropbacks he posted earlier in the season. That added mobility has helped him extend plays and avoid negative outcomes as his comfort level continues to grow.

Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks

With Max Brosmer likely to start at quarterback this week for the Vikings, Minnesota will need meaningful production from the run game to support him in his first extended NFL action. Fortunately for the rookie, the Vikings have been one of the league’s most effective first-down rushing teams in 2025. Minnesota leads the NFL with a 31% rushing success rate on first down and is averaging 4.6 yards per carry, the 10th-highest mark in the league.

However, their approach may need to shift. The Vikings call a run on just 45% of first-down plays, the 26th-lowest rate in the NFL. With Brosmer stepping in, they may have to lean more heavily on what has already proven to be a strength of their offense.

Seattle’s efficient play-action passing game will be tested by an aggressive Minnesota defense. The Seahawks are averaging a league-best 12.2 yards per play on play-action and generate explosive gains on 27% of those plays, the third-highest rate in the NFL this season. Minnesota, however, has been one of the toughest defenses to attack with play action. The Vikings produce a league-leading 50% pressure rate on play-action dropbacks and allow just a 14% explosive-play rate, the eighth lowest in the league.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers

In the first meeting between these division rivals back in Week 2, Geno Smith delivered one of his roughest performances of the season against the Chargers defense. He completed just 56% of his passes — a season low — while also posting season-worst marks in yards per attempt (4.2) and passer rating (37.0).

The Raiders veteran quarterback will aim for a much stronger showing in the rematch, but the challenge remains formidable. The Chargers have been one of the toughest coverage units in the league all year, allowing opposing quarterbacks a 75.9 passer rating, the second-lowest mark in the NFL.

The Chargers return from their bye week looking to rebound from their worst offensive outing of the season — a 35–6 loss to the Jaguars in Week 11. Justin Herbert completed a season-low 56% of his passes in that game and posted season-worst marks in passer rating (44.0) and yards per attempt (4.5). The ground game struggled even more. On designed runs, Los Angeles managed just 21 rushing yards on 13 attempts, averaging a season-low 1.6 yards per carry against Jacksonville’s defense.

The potential return of Omarion Hampton could help stabilize the run game. Hampton has been one of the most difficult runners in the league to bring down, averaging 3.8 yards after contact, the fourth-highest mark among running backs this season.

Buffalo Bills @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Buffalo will look to get its pass rush back on track this week against a vastly improved Pittsburgh offensive line. Through the first nine weeks, the Bills generated pressure at a 43% rate, the second-highest mark in the league. That production has fallen off sharply, dropping to just 24% from Weeks 10–12, which ranks 31st over that stretch.

They’ll face a Pittsburgh unit that has taken a major step forward in protection. Entering Week 13, the Steelers have allowed pressure on only 26% of their dropbacks, the lowest rate in the league. It’s one of the biggest year-over-year improvements, as Pittsburgh surrendered pressure at a 38% rate last season, ranking 29th overall.

Denver Broncos @ Washington Commanders

Before the bye week, the Broncos posted a season-low 59 rushing yards in Week 11 in their first game without J.K. Dobbins, who is likely out for the season due to a foot injury. Dobbins has accounted for 772 of Denver’s 1,044 rushing yards by running backs, averaging 5.0 yards per carry and producing 21 explosive runs. By comparison, all other Broncos running backs have combined to average 3.9 yards per carry with just two explosive runs. Denver will have a prime chance to reestablish the run game against a Commanders defense that ranks bottom-six in yards per carry allowed (4.5) and explosives allowed (37) on run plays.

Regardless of who is at quarterback, the Commanders are facing heavy blitz volume from opponents, ranking fourth highest with a 38% blitz rate faced. That is likely to continue against a Broncos defense that is blitzing at the sixth-highest rate (41%) and has generated the second-most sacks off the blitz (25). Marcus Mariota has handled the blitz well in his appearances, earning a 78.7 passing grade and averaging 8.5 yards per attempt, second only to Sam Darnold.

New York Giants @ New England Patriots

If Jaxson Dart is under center for the Giants, third down will be a crucial battleground. Since Dart took over as the starting quarterback in Week 4, the Giants have converted on third down at the fifth-highest rate in the league (45.6%). As a passer, Dart ranks 10th in passer rating (96.0) and ninth in yards per attempt (7.6) on third downs. The real damage, however, comes when he scrambles or keeps the ball on designed runs. Dart has picked up 13 first downs plus touchdowns on third down this season, trailing only Josh Allen, Justin Herbert and Baker Mayfield among quarterbacks.

While it remains to be seen how the Giants defense will operate without Shane Bowen, they have used man coverage at one of the highest rates this season. Their 29% Cover 1 rate ranks third in the NFL, and their overall 33.4% man-coverage rate ranks fourth. Drake Maye has been effective against man coverage, ranking second in yards per attempt (9.2), but he has been a bit reckless, ranking fourth in turnover-worthy play rate (6.3%).