The Detroit Lions’ playoff chances were nearly cut in half over the course of past two days. The Lions’ Thanksgiving loss to the Green Bay Packers—in addition to the Cowboys and Bears winning—has shifted the course of Detroit’s playoff chase, and now they are big underdogs to make the postseason after entering the week with high probabilities to return to the dance.
Using the New York Times playoff simulator, Detroit entered the week with a 73% chance to make the playoffs. After the three worst possible outcomes of the week, the Lions’ chances now sit at just 32%—a 41% drop-off.
Let’s take a look at why by looking at the latest NFC playoff picture standings.
NFC North playoff picture
- Chicago Bears: 9-3
- Green Bay Packers: 8-3-1
- Detroit Lions: 7-5
- Minnesota Vikings: 4-7
The Lions are now two full games behind the Bears and a game-and-a-half behind the Packers. Detroit could theoretically still jump both, but it will require near perfection from them down the stretch. Helping them is a Week 18 matchup with the Bears that would not only help them make up a one-game difference, but it would give them the head-to-head tiebreaker over Chicago.
Only one problem: the Bears may actually be good. Yes, they still have a brutal schedule (Packers 2X, Browns, 49ers, Lions), but they have now won nine of their last 10 and just took down the Eagles in their own home.
Green Bay will also be hard to catch. While they, too, have a tough schedule (Bears 2X, Broncos, Ravens, Vikings), Detroit will have to beat them by two games over five weeks to catch them.
In other words, a third-straight divisional title is looking pretty unlikely. The New York Times is putting their chances at just 4%.
NFC playoff picture
Division leaders:
- Rams: 9-2*
- Bears: 9-3
- Eagles: 8-4
- Buccaneers: 6-5*
Wild Card race (top three advance)
- Seahawks: 8-3*
- Packers: 8-3-1
- 49ers: 8-4*
- Lions: 7-5
- Cowboys: 6-5-1
- Panthers: 6-6*
*still has a Week 13 game left to play
Here’s the good news: there are only these six teams realistically fighting for three Wild Card spots. The two highest teams kept off the list—the 4-7 Falcons and Vikings—both have playoff odds currently at 1% or lower.
Here’s the bad news: They’re essentially two spots out of a playoff spot with five games to go. They need to catch one of the following four teams, who all essentially have a two-game lead over them.
- 9-3 Bears
- 8-3-1 Packers
- 8-3 Seahawks
- 8-4 49ers
They’re clearly two games behind the Bears. They’re 1.5 games behind the Packers, which is essentially the same thing as two games, because even if the Lions tie a game down the stretch, the Packers would have the head-to-head tiebreaker. They’re 1.5 games behind the Seahawks and likely to be two games behind after they play the Vikings this week.
The 49ers are a little more complicated. Detroit is technically only one game behind the 49ers, but San Francisco has a big lead on the primary tiebreaker: conference record. San Francisco is 8-2 in conference play compared to Detroit’s 4-4. With only four conference games left for the Lions, the best they can do is tie the 49ers at 8-4 in conference play. That said, the 49ers’ two remaining conference games are against the Bears and Seahawks, so there’s a possibility they lose both of those games, but it would involve the Lions running the table against their remaining NFC games (vs. Cowboys, @ Rams, @ Vikings, @ Bears).
The next tiebreaker for the Lions and 49ers would be record in common games. The common games on each team’s schedule are: Rams, Buccaneers, Giants, and Bears. Detroit is 3-0 in those games with two more remaining (Bears, Rams). The 49ers are 2-2 with only one remaining (Bears). So the extremely narrow window is there for the Lions to jump San Francisco.
Detroit also has to now worry about the red-hot Dallas Cowboys—winners of three straight—who are just a half game behind the Lions now. Of course, Detroit can quickly bury them with a win over Dallas on Thursday, but if the Lions lose that game, they’d have to jump two teams in the final four games. That would almost certainly require a run of the table in their final four games. If the Lions lose on Thursday, the New York Times places their playoff odds at just 14%.
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