If we take momentum and emotion out of the equation that has been the Colts season to this point, I think we might actually be able to feel good heading into Thanksgiving weekend and the unofficial “When it matters” season. Some of the shine of a 7 – 1 start has worn off and we no longer control our ability to be the #1 seed in the AFC. We have cracked the door open for division rivals, and in some fans mind’s we are on the verge of an epic collapse. I’d like to take a minute to show just how good we have been so far this season.
Lets start with the record, sitting at 8 – 3. Only the Pats, Broncos, and Rams have a better record. We played both the Rams and Broncos evenly and could have went 0 -2, 1 – 1, or even 2 – 0. All three of the losses have been on the road, with two of them coming in the traditional snake pits of Pittsburgh and KC. The other was not a raucous crowd, but was versus the team at the top of the Power Rankings in the Rams. Without watching the game, you can just say that it was a 7 point road loss to the best team in the league. (If you did watch it, you know we were their match.)
How about statistically? I’m getting much of this info from this site: https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/team-stats/ It is hard to find an offensive metric in which the Colts are not in the top 3. They are no longer being mentioned in “historical” rankings, but have shown enough offense make some noise. Jones is top 10 in QB rankings and JT is the best RB in the league, no matter how you want to measure. Pierce catches longer passes than anyone in the league and Warren will factor in the OROY when it is time to tally votes.
The defense might not be as statistically good, but they are still in the upper half in most statistics, especially the scoring stats. I’d like to bring up injuries and acquisitions, but those are not really “In a vacuum” factors. I guess you could say that they are one player (although a huge one) away from being at full strength. That condition is likely shared by most of the teams that will make up the playoffs.
I hear you now, “Stats are easily manipulated to support your argument” but would you pay more attention to Las Vegas? As the story goes, those magnificent buildings on the strip were not built on all the house losses. There are many sites out there that give their odds to win the Super Bowl, but you are not going to see a great deal of variance when you check for betting favorites. I looked at two: https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story/_/id/43748901/super-bowl-2026-odds-win-nfl-betting and https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/futures/
The Colts are solidly in the 4th to 5th slot of betting favorites. I’m not sure, but I think the Chiefs loss actually gave them a bump. Two teams that beat the Colts are ahead of them as having shorter odds. Those two teams are the betting favorite Rams and last week’s foe the Chiefs. Both were highly contested road losses. The meaningful games are coming and the Colts have laid the groundwork to be a factor until the end of this season and beyond. The Colts are listed as one of the betting favorites, because they don’t want to put a big number on a team that just might win it all.
I know that the games/season are not played in a vacuum, but our team is just a couple of games away from putting a hammer lock on the division. If they can go 2 – 0 versus a couple of divisional rivals who are pretty flawed in their own rights, I doubt that anyone will remember a mini 1 – 2 stretch heading into the holidays. If the Colts can solve the problem of slowing opposing DLs down, or using their aggression against them, they could be looking at a path the doesn’t have two of the traditional roadblocks of Patrick and Lamar.
Maybe it was the good food and frequent naps yesterday, but I’m feeling pretty good about the Colts chances this week and for the season as well.
Happy Holidays!
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