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Many NFL bettors start by looking at individual markets — like spreads, totals, teasers or props — and ask, “Which spread looks good?” or “What totals stand out this week?” This is a bottom-up approach, focusing on specific bets first.

In this space, we’ll take a different approach. We’ll focus on one game each week and use a top-down strategy to break it down. This means starting with the bigger picture — how teams, players or trends are performing — and then finding the best ways to apply that information to different betting markets.

While some of our bets may focus on traditional markets, like spreads or totals, we’ll often explore other opportunities to maximize value.

Chicago Bears moneyline

As always, we’ll start by examining the team fundamentals and how this matchup is priced, laying the foundation for the rest of our analysis.

Above is our chart from Timo Riske outlining team performance. It shows that the Bears have operated as an above-average offense with a below-average defense, while the Eagles have profiled as a league-average offense paired with a good defense. Looking at expected points added (EPA) would reveal almost the same story.

Pricing this game at a full touchdown suggests the market disagrees with those underlying fundamentals. The likely source is the perception of Philadelphia’s defense, which has played better in recent weeks and added key pieces. According to Inpredictable’s market ratings, the Eagles currently grade out as the No. 1 defense in the NFL, 3.7 points better on a neutral field, with the offense still holding an edge over the Bears.

While the Eagles defense has improved in the second half of the season, there’s no credible path to ranking them as the No. 1 unit. Even since Week 8, they’ve allowed the ninth-most yards per dropback, sit 16th in quick-pressure rate and 18th in disruption rate. Pick any major pass-defense metric, and this group does not profile as the league’s best, leaving meaningful value on the underlying fundamentals.

On the Bears’ side, this rushing attack hasn’t posted a below-average-percentile performance since Week 4, and Caleb Williams has cut his sack rate nearly in half from 9.7% to 4.5%. That improvement alone has allowed more drives to stay alive and has raised the offense’s baseline.

While the Eagles have been excellent against the run — they are third in EPA and success rate allowed over the past month — in this specific matchup of elite rushing offense vs elite rushing defense, the Bears carry more weight as the team likely to find success on the ground.

Matchup Angles

On the matchup side, one of Caleb Williams’ clear strengths has been operating within structure, as his 0.2 EPA per play when operating within the structure of the offense ranks among the best marks in the NFL.

His position in the bottom-right quadrant of this graph suggests that he has some of the biggest deltas between play in the system vs. play out of it. That matters in this matchup because the Eagles have allowed opposing offenses to stay in structure at the sixth-highest rate in the league, creating far less disruption than you’d expect from a defense priced by the market as the NFL’s best.

The Eagles have also run single-high coverage at one of the highest rates in the league, and that aligns with an area where Williams has shown one of his biggest performance splits. His efficiency drops meaningfully against single-high looks compared to other coverage structures.

On the flipside, the Eagles are dealing with a major issue at tackle with Lane Johnson out. With the veteran also out last week, Jalen Hurts just posted his lowest perfect-block rate of the season and was pressured on nearly 40% of his dropbacks.

Chicago’s pass rush isn’t the strength of its defense, but Hurts’ tendency to hold onto the ball — only Caleb Williams has a longer average time to throw — becomes a liability when the offensive line isn’t holding up. His playstyle relies heavily on strong pass protection, and even against a modest rush, that tendency leaves the Bears room to generate consistent pressure.

There is also a significant split in Hurts’ passing efficiency depending on coverage. He has nearly a 0.25 EPA per-play gap between his performance vs man and zone, with far better production against man. Chicago has played a top-10 rate of zone coverage over the last six weeks and is expected to get Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon back. Johnson and Gordon both rank in the top half of the league in separation prevented and replace Nachshon Wright and C.J. Gardner-Johnson, who were mid-season depth additions. That upgrade further strengthens the case that Philadelphia may struggle moving the ball through the air.

The bottom line

The Eagles’ run game has generated little all season outside of its matchup with the historically poor Giants run defense, and the passing game is not ideally built to exploit a Bears defense that has been bad overall but is getting healthier.

Chicago enters with a high floor on the ground and real reasons to expect more scoring success than the market is giving them credit for against this Eagles defense. Put it all together, and 7 points is simply too many — the Bears are very live to upset an overrated Philadelphia team.