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Fantasy and DFS enthusiasts, bettors and analysts often rely on a wide array of statistics and models to gain a competitive edge. These range from basic box score stats to advanced metrics available in PFF’s Premium Stats 2.0 and models like Josh Hermsmeyer‘s Buy Low model and WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating).

There is always room for new insights and analyses to help bettors and fantasy managers refine their strategies. That’s why I developed a new metric that offers several advantages over WOPR. Click here for an in-depth explanation of the model, my process and its advantages.

Week 12 Recap

• Wan’Dale Robinson: WR2 – 30.6 PPR points (1 touchdown)
• D.K. Metcalf: WR21 – 14.4 PPR points (1 touchdown)
• Zay Flowers: WR26 – 11.9 PPR points
• Emeka Egbuka: WR44 – 6.2 PPR points
• Tre Tucker: WR48 – 5.8 PPR points (10 targets!)
• Jerry Jeudy:  WR53 – 4.9 PPR points
• Romeo Doubs: WR57 – 4.3 PPR points

The last three weeks have been historic for the wide receiver position and its lack of scoring fantasy points. However, the model was still able to identify a top-five receiver finish and four top-26 positions.

Potential Breakouts: Week 13

PWOPR is significantly more stable than FPpG and serves as a stronger indicator of future performance. To help identify potential breakout candidates, the residual is calculated by subtracting a player’s predicted FPpG from their actual FPpG. Players with a strong PWOPR and a residual of -3.0 or lower are included on this list. Players remain on the list until one of the following conditions is met:

• They fulfill their PWOPR potential with a big game
• Their PWOPR decreases to match their expected FPpG

This week, I am going to only focus on the most high-profile names. But, all players on the list have an outsized chance to produce above their expectation — and in some cases, have an exceptional performance. 

Baltimore has allowed the seventh-most single-coverage snaps to develop this season and plays man coverage at the fifth-highest rate. Over the past two seasons (to capture more Joe Burrow dropbacks), Chase owns a 27.3% THREAT with a 78.3 PFF grade against man coverage, and he has been even better against zone (90.4 PFF grade).

The big swing factor is context. Burrow returns after months away, and Tee Higgins is out in a matchup where Chase erupted for 41.0 and 55.0 PPR points in the 2024 season. This sets up as a strong spot for Chase to have elite production.

Metcalf headlines the “Coach, I Was Open” article with a 32.2% share of predicted targets and a 0.807 PWOPR. That is true WR1-level ability, and it will eventually show up in the box score.

The issue has been function and timing. Metcalf’s deeper routes clash with a quick-trigger passing game. Throughout the season, Aaron Rodgers has the fifth-fastest average time to throw, while Mason Rudolph posted the third-quickest time to throw in Week 12 — which did not help Metcalf’s downfield profile. 

Buffalo also limits depth, giving up the 12th-lowest aDoT while generating the 13th-most quick pressure. Pittsburgh may again struggle to hold the ball long enough to unlock Metcalf’s splash plays.

J.J. McCarthy’s accuracy remains the concern. Over the past three weeks, he has a 55.7% accurate throw rate (26th), which is up from his 51.8% season mark — but still well below the 61.2% league average.

As McCarthy’s status remains unclear, Max Brosmer could start against a ferocious Seattle defense with a top-four PFF team coverage grade, a top-10 team pass-rush grade and the sixth-ranked overall team defense mark. The Week 13 setup is rough for Jefferson and the Vikings’ passing game.

Tucker keeps forcing his way onto the list because he continues to get open relative to his teammates. Over the past month, he has posted the ninth-best PWOPR, yet he sits at WR42 in PPR points. That captures how poorly the Raiders’ offense has utilized Tucker.

The Chargers present another stiff test with the eighth-best team PFF coverage grade, but they also allow the third-highest rate of open targets to wide receivers. With offensive coordinator Chip Kelly gone, Tucker could grow into a bigger focal point, though the post-Kelly version of this offense still needs to prove it.

Egbuka opened the year with five straight strong performances, and his recent box score data does not match his involvement in the offense. Over the past two weeks, he has earned 17 targets but only produced 72 yards with zero touchdowns.

The underlying usage and ability still signals upside. Egbuka ranks 10th in PWOPR over the last month, and with a PWOPR that high, production will come.

Arizona is a difficult matchup, allowing the third-lowest open-target rate to wide receivers in addition to posting the fourth-best PFF grade in coverage against wide receivers. The Cardinals also rank 12th in overall team PFF coverage grade, so this may require volume to do the heavy lifting.

Flowers continues to get open, but the targets have not followed. He has not cleared six targets since Week 8, but has recorded a top-15 PWOPR over the course of the season. 

Cincinnati has been a bounce-back matchup for offenses all year, ranking bottom five in both team PFF coverage and team PFF pass-rush grades — which contributes to the lowest overall team defense grade. The Bengals pairing a bottom-three defense with an above average offense gives Flowers a clean path to a real spike week.