Welcome to the New York Giants betting angle, Week 12 edition. Each week, I’m giving you my three favorite wagers for that week’s New York Giants game. My one rule: I won’t ever give you wagers that are less than -120. No gimmies here.
The 2-9 Giants head to Detroit this week riding a five-game losing streak. For the second straight week, they’re facing an NFC North team with Super Bowl aspirations who just got shut down in prime time the week before by the Eagles. I don’t see that as a good thing.
Detroit was held to nine points last week – the only time they’ve been held under 13 points since a 24-6 loss to Dallas in October 2022. They’re a different bunch of big cats in their home dome, and I think Dan Campbell’s team will be looking to take out their frustrations on a weaker opponent.
The Giants continue to play hard and haven’t been blown out much despite their rigorous schedule. Mike Kafka will be coaching his second game, and for the second time it will be Jameis Winston calling signals for Big Blue, as Jaxson Dart remains in the concussion protocol and will look to return next week at New England.
The line on FanDuel is DET -12.5, with a game total of 49.5. The line moved a full two points on Friday morning when it was announced that Dart would not be playing.
My picks were 0-2 last week, with one bet refunded due to injury (Josh Jacobs rushing prop). After a hot stretch, I’ve gone cold the last few weeks. Maybe just bet the opposite of what I recommend, and pretty soon you’ll own that yacht you’ve been dreaming about.
Here are this week’s picks. All lines and odds are from FanDuel and are as of Friday, November 21.
- First Half spread LIONS -7.5 (+105). It’s a big number for 30 minutes of football, but I like this action at plus-money. Lost in Detroit’s offensive futility last week, which included five turnovers on downs, is that the Lions’ defense was almost as good as Philadelphia’s and held the home team to just 16 points. Jameis Winston threw several passes last week that easily could’ve been picked, and I don’t think he’ll be as lucky this week. Look for Detroit’s D to get some stops or turnovers early, while their big-play offense rolls them out to a decent lead. I’m staying away from the full-game spread which is susceptible to a back-door cover, but I think Big Blue is going to be overmatched right out of the gate. The Lions lead the NFL with nine first quarter TDs. Give me this first half line all day.
- Jameis Winston OVER 33.5 Pass Attempts (+105). I’ll take another bet at plus-money. This is also a big number, but Winston attempted 29 passes last week in a one-score game where the Giants’ offense was able to stay pretty balanced for most of the game. I think 40+ attempts while the Giants chase points is realistic this week, unless New York really can’t sustain any drives.
- Lions OVER 31.5 points (-106). The number is big again, but clearly, I’m not scared by big numbers this week, or correlating all my bets on the game going a specific way. I’m confident, even with Detroit’s offensive line pretty banged up. Two trends I like here: First, over their last five contests (all losses), the Giants are giving up over 30 points per game; and second, in the game after each of their prior three losses, the Lions have won by at least 15 points. I’m staying away from Detroit player props, but I’m all-in on a big day from their offense and defense, and on the team posting a large number.
Those are the picks for Week 12. Good luck with your wagers!
Do you play fantasy football? Check out my Week 12 Fantasy Preview, with start/sit advice, matchup analysis, and more, right here at Big Blue View.
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