The Detroit Lions (6-4) and New York Giants (2-9) will square off in a Week 12 matchup at Ford Field. The Giants’ record is rough, but their talent is better than it suggests. New York will fight to stay in this game, but they’ll need to find a way to keep things together when the game is on the line—something they’ve struggled to do this season.
“This team has been in a ton of these games,” Lions coach Dan Campbell said of the Giants on Wednesday. “And a few of these games, they’ve been up a couple of scores and lost a tight one there a few times. And so they’ve been in most of these games, had a chance to win them, they’re competitive, they play hard. It’s a good unit. I know they made the change a week ago, but they had a chance last week again in that game.”
If the Lions want to continue their winning ways, they’ll need to follow the keys to victory laid out in this week’s Honolulu Blueprint.
Giants’ base schemes
For a detailed look at the opposing scheme, make sure you check out our complementary breakdown piece: Lions Week 12 Preview: Breaking down Giants’ offensive and defensive schemes.
Key 1: Run. Run. And run some more
Much has been made of the Lions’ rushing attack taking a step back from previous seasons. They’re below average in EPA per rush (-0.04, 18th), success rate (41%, 22nd), and explosive run plays (21 rushes of 10+ yards, 21st). However, it’s not all bad. So far in 2025, they’re in the top 10 in rushing DVOA (eighth), rushing yards per game (130.1, seventh), rushing yards per play (4.6, 10th), rush yards over expectation (157, ninth), and yards before contact (1.72, seventh).
The most notable stat, though, is that they average nearly 100 fewer rushing yards per game in losses (66) than in wins (162), underscoring the importance of the run game to this offense’s success. And coming off a loss to the Eagles in Week 11, the Lions could really use a boost to their rushing attack to help them get back on track.
Hello, Giants.
The Giants’ defense prioritizes stopping the run, and they were expected to rank among the top 10 this season. Unfortunately, things have not played out as planned. Their overall defense ranks 28th in DVOA, and their run defense checks in dead last. Heading into this matchup, the Giants rank in the bottom five in run defense in multiple categories, including:
- DVOA, run defense: 32nd
- Rush yards allowed per game: 149.9 (30th)
- Rush yards allowed per play: 5.5 ypc (32nd)
- EPA per rush allowed: 0.16 (32nd)
- Success rate: 46.2% (31st)
- 10+ rushing plays allowed: 52 (32nd)
- Rush yards allowed over expected: 455 (32nd)
- Yards before contact: 2.12 (32nd)
- Yards after contact: 3.46 (29th)
To illustrate how bad things have gotten, the Giants’ EPA per rush allowed is DOUBLE that of every team in the NFL, save the Bengals.
The Giants have been particularly susceptible to running backs with speed. Far too often this season, the Giants have not been able to shut down their gaps, and when speed backs get into the open field, they find room to run (see the 10+ rush yards allowed stat above).
If you’re thinking that sets up nicely for Jahmyr Gibbs to have a potentially very big day, you’re not alone. Here’s Next Gen Stats with more on this matchup:
Jahmyr Gibbs has reached the fastest speed of any player when rushing the football this season (22.34 miles per hour) and has reached 15 miles per hour on 21.4% of his rushes (4th-highest among RBs, min. 75 carries). Matchup: The Giants have allowed opposing rushers to exceed 15 miles per hour on 72 carries this season (3rd-most), allowing 539 rushing yards over expected (most) and an 80.6% success rate (highest) on such rushes.
Key 2: Play-action freezes secondary
Once the rushing attack gets established, the Lions love to turn to play-action. This season, the Lions run play action on 30% of their offensive plays (fifth most in the NFL) and, according to Next Gen Stats, they’ve the most efficient team in the NFL when using it.
For example, on average, quarterback Jared Goff averages an EPA of 0.13 on every drop-back (eighth best in the NFL). But on drop-backs that feature play-action, Goff’s EPA jumps to 0.45 (third-best result when using this concept).
Meanwhile, the Giants’ secondary has been working through injuries and regression from younger players, resulting in their defensive backs struggling with their heavy-man coverage scheme. New York runs man coverage (41%) more than any team in the NFL, which puts a lot of stress on reserves and younger players. When offenses add play-action into the mix, it creates more information for the secondary to process and delayed reactions.
As a result, Next Gen Stats ranks the Giants 25th in their ability to defend play-action.
Key 3: Get ball out quick; Limit pass rush
The strength of the Giants’ defense is their pass rush. In 2022, New York drafted Kayvon Thibodeaux fifth overall, traded for Brian Burns (16th overall pick in 2019) in 2024, and then drafted Abdul Carter third overall in the 2025 NFL Draft. A wealth of talent in the pass rushing department.
Burns is having a career year, and his 13 sacks (second most in the NFL) are already the most he’s ever had in one season (and there are still seven games left to play), and his 39 pressures are 13th most in the NFL, per Next Gen Stats.
Beyond Burns, the Giants have found ways to create pressure, even though they haven’t gotten much sack production out of the rest of their defense. Thibodeaux (who is in danger of missing this game and has not practiced this week due to a shoulder injury) accounts for 33 pressures (28th overall among defenders) and just 2.5 sacks (93rd), while the rookie sensation Carter accounts for 37 pressures (19th) but just a single half-sack (314th) through 11 games.
While the lack of sacks limits the game-changing plays the Giants defense makes, their ability to generate pressure (142 as a team, eighth most) could give the Lions trouble.
One of the ways Giants’ opponents have offset their pass rush is to distribute the ball quickly. For example, Saints quarterback Spencer Rattler talked about this strategy before their game with the Giants, and had this to say:
“On the back end, they don’t do as much as what we’ve seen from these other teams, disguise-wise, but they’ve got their wrinkles and everything. They run what they do well, and can cause some havoc to quarterbacks and offenses, so we’ve got to get the ball out on time, take our shots when they’re there, and just move the chains.”
Rattler’s average time to throw in that game was 2.62 seconds (second fastest time on the season for him), and he completed 21 of 31 for 225 yards and a touchdown. It was also the only game of the season in which he was not sacked.
With minimal disguise in their coverage, Goff should be able to quickly ascertain what the Giants’ defensive plan is. From there, it’ll be up to the cerebral quarterback to decide the best way to attack the defense.
Key 4: Stop the run; focus between tackles
From a statistical perspective, the Giants’ rushing attack is their biggest strength. They rank 16th in rushing DVOA, are top-10 in rushing yards per game (124.7), and top-eight in explosive runs (35 runs of 10+ yards). Now, they’re without their sensational rookie starter in Cam Skattebo (who broke his leg in late October), but Tyrone Tracy and Devin Singletary have done a nice job of splitting duties.
Tracy is the Giants’ current starter and typically carries the ball on primary downs, with Singletary taking on short yardage and red zone responsibilities. However, when interim head coach Mike Kafka took over last week, he distributed their touches more evenly at about 50/50.
The Giants have incorporated more Gap blocking schemes this season, but they still primarily run an Inside Zone blocking scheme. On the season, 58% of their runs are between the offensive tackles (second-highest rate in the NFL), and according to Next Gen Stats, they’re the third most efficient team when running between the tackles.
Fortunately for the Lions, per Next Gen Stats, the Lions are the 10th-best team at stopping run plays between the tackles. Detroit leans heavily on their defensive tackles to hold their gaps and allow MIKE linebacker Jack Campbell to flow to the football. Here’s an excerpt from Next Gen Stats on how Campbell has dominated in run defense:
Jack Campbell leads all linebackers in run tackle percentage (25.9%) and run stop percentage (16.1%) this season (min. 150 run defense snaps), missing a tackle on only two of his run tackle opportunities. He has also generated 12 pressures (T-11th-most among linebackers) and a career-high 4 sacks (T-most) when rushing the passer, despite Campbell blitzing at the lowest rate in his three seasons in the NFL (19.3%).
The Lions enter every game prioritizing stopping the run, and while they’ll have their work cut out for them against the Giants, if the Lions are going to have success, they’ll need Campbell to continue to produce at high rates.
Key 5: Don’t expect Dart to stop running
Rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart has had a very good start to his NFL career. After taking over a starting role in Week 4, Dart has found success on the strength of his arm and his legs, producing both as a passer and a runner.
While very successful running the football, on designed and non-designed QB runs, Dart does put himself in harm’s way quite a bit. He’s required a concussion check four times this year, and is currently in the NFL concussion protocol after suffering a concussion in Week 10. After missing last week’s game against the Packers, Dart has returned to the practice field for two limited practices this week and is trending toward returning to game action.
If Dart does return for this game, the Lions are not expecting him to dial back his runs, according to defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard:
“You can tell a player like that to run less, but within his competition nature, if he’s out there, he’s going to run the football. So, we’re preparing for a healthy Jaxson Dart […] Obviously, the QB run game stuff, you have to be more prepared for, because we do believe it will uptick in the illusion of the QB run, so to say, if Jaxson plays. But we’ll be ready for any guy that they put out there Sunday.”
Look for the Lions to continue to deploy their contain-and-squeeze defensive front approach as they dedicate a lot of resources to stopping the run, both from the running backs and the quarterback.
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