The New York Giants will try to put a stop to their five-game skid when they travel to take on the Detroit Lions in Week 12.
This will be the Giants’ third game in three weeks against the NFC North, and it will likely be their second-toughest defensive test in what has already been a brutal schedule.
The Lions’ defense is 10th in points allowed (21.6 per game), 10th in rushing EPA allowed (14th in success rate allowed), eighth in passing EPA allowed (fourth in passing success rate), and sixth in overall EPA allowed (fourth in total success rate allowed).
The Giants have been getting just about everything they can from an offense featuring a rookie quarterback and without their best weapons. But will that be enough against a tough Lions’ defense?
Run the ball
Perhaps the best thing to come from the Giants’ 27-20 loss to the Green Bay Packers was them rediscovering their running game. True, they averaged just 3.7 yards per carry, but that doesn’t come close to telling the whole story.
They ran the ball 38 times, picking up 142 yards and three touchdowns on the ground, each of which is among the Giants’ best marks of the season. It was an impressive performance considering rookie sensation Jaxson Dart was out of the lineup with a concussion.
It was doubly impressive considering the Packers have the NFL’s second-best run defense behind only the Denver Broncos. The Packers boast the ninth-best Run Stop Win Rate and prior to Sunday the Packers had only given up five rushing touchdowns while allowing an average of 92 yards per game.
The question now is whether the Giants can carry that forward to this week against the Lions.
We should probably expect the Giants to try to make running the ball the foundation of their offense against Detroit. Interim head coach Mike Kafka made a point of focusing on the run game, going after the strength of the Packers’ defense to establish a physical and aggressive attitude. He’ll likely do so again against Lions, who pride themselves on their own physicality. We also know that Kafka makes a point of trying to attack opponents’ tendencies, and the Lions’ run defense is weaker than their pass defense, making the running game that much more attractive.
The Giants made good use of Counter runs against the Packers and we should expect that to continue into this week. They frequently used pulling blockers to establish a numbers advantage on the play side while also working OC John Michael Schmitz to the second level. While the Lions’ run defense is formidable, their defensive line has been among the worst in the NFL when it comes to winning at the line of scrimmage, rankin 30th in Run Stop Win Rate.
A defender can earn a win by doing any of the following: beating his blocker so he’s in better position to stop the runner; disrupting the pocket or running lane by pushing his blocker backward; containing the runner such that he must adjust his running lane; or recording a tackle within 3 yards of the line of scrimmage.
That suggests that their run defense is a function of their second and third level players rallying to the ball. Getting blockers to the second level, combined with their backs’ elusiveness, could help the Giants stay on time and ahead of the chains.
The Jaxson Dart effect?
Starting quarterback Jaxson Dart has yet to clear the concussion protocol as of this writing, however he was also said to be “on track” at the end of last week. So while we don’t know for sure whether Dart will clear the protocol and get the start against the Lions, we at least have to consider the possibility — and so do the Lions.
The most obvious impact Dart will have is on the running game. We shouldn’t expect Dart to be a primary ball carrier for the Giants when he returns, and Kafka will likely reserve designed quarterback runs or read-option plays for high-leverage moments. That said, the sheer threat that Dart’s legs pose has to be a consideration for the Lions’ defense. Assuming Dart plays, they’ll likely focus on containing him rather than trying to pressure him and potentially giving up contain. Dart’s ability to flow within the pocket combined with his situational awareness allows him to make plays outside the structure of the offense.
And while he can still be a bit too willing to resort to back yard football and would probably be more successful if he stayed in the structure of the offense unless necessary, it does make him a spark plug for the offense and difficult for opponents to defend. Tyrone Tracy spoke earlier this week about how Kafka has stressed practicing with energy and carrying that energy forward into games. The Giants certainly played with good effort and energy on both offense and defense against the Packers, and the return of Dart to the field could
There will also be schematic changes going from a veteran pro style quarterback like Jameis Winston to Dart. We’ve talked about the Pistol set last week, but didn’t see it with Winston at quarterback. It’s much more commonly used in college and we could see it used with Dart at quarterback. Likewise, we’ll likely see more naked rollouts to take advantage of Dart’s mobility and ability to throw accurately on the run.
Finally, one aspect of Dart’s game that has stood out over the course of his young career is that while he doesn’t always make the correct decision, he rarely makes a wrong decision. That is to say, he doesn’t always make the correct decision as far as where to go with the ball on a given play, but he seldom makes decisions that actively hurt the offense.
Case in point, while Dart is 27th in pass attempts, he’s tied for ninth in sacks taken this year. He also has the fewest yards lost to sacks among starting quarterbacks this year.
Dart has (so far) proven to be very good at recognizing pressure and evading rushers to extend the play. Holding the ball has led to sacks and his scrambles do put him at risk, but his tendency to work his way back to the line of scrimmage minimizes the damage done by the sacks.
Dart is nearly as aggressive as Jameis Winston, but he’s also much better about taking a profit without putting the ball in danger. Dart is currently fourth among qualifying quarterbacks (minimum 90 attempts) in intended air yardage per NFL NextGenStats, at 8.9 yards downfield. He wants to attack the defense, but he’s generally smart about not taking foolish risks and throws into coverage at the 8th-lowest rate in the NFL (12.8%).
We’ll just have to see if the Giants’ depleted skill positions will allow Dart to attack downfield and close the gap between intended (8.9) and completed (5.8) air yards.
Attacking down field
The Giants can’t exclusively run the ball against the Lions. They’ll have to drop back and pass, even if they lean on the run this game. If all goes well, there should be opportunities down the field if the Lions play more heavy boxes. And while play-action doesn’t need the offense to “establish the run” (it depends more heavily on good ball handling from the quarterback and blocking from the offensive line to really sell the play fake), the defense crowding the line of scrimmage does open up more room off of the fake.
But how will the Giants attack?
It’s possible that we could see the Giants concentrate on using their tight ends and running backs in the passing game. Theo Johnson has played well the last two weeks and Dart has done a good job of finding his tight ends in the intermediate area of the field.
The Giants brought back Isaiah Hodgins and he immediately had an impact on their passing offense. Hodgins isn’t a speedy receiver, however he’s a detailed route runner and a secure catcher of the ball. Between that and his size, he proved to be an effective downfield weapon for Jameis Winston but will that continue with Jaxson Dart (assuming he returns this week)?
Winston has the advantage of years of experience playing with a wide variety of teammates in the unpredictable role as a backup. He’s used to quickly establishing a rapport with players on short notice. Dart, on the other hand, is still new to the NFL as a whole. He has a reputation as a magnetic young man who quickly builds relationships, and that bodes well. But we can’t know how it will translate to the field.
That becomes important if Darius Slayton remains out with his hamstring injury. We will likely see Hodgins and Wan’Dale Robinson emerge as the Giants’ top receiving targets over the remainder of the season. How they use them as deep threats will be interesting to follow. The Giants still want to attack deep, with 10 of Winston’s 29 pass attempts coming beyond 10 yards downfield, and his longest completed cast traveling 33 yards in the air.
Dart is an aggressive quarterback quarterback who will want to attack the Lions. Balancing that against getting options open early so he doesn’t hold the ball or be tempted to scramble — in either case, limiting his exposure big hits — will be a fine line for Mike Kafka to walk.
See More:
