The Atlanta Falcons lost their fifth straight game in Week 11 and in the process may have lost starting quarterback Michael Penix for the rest of the season. Penix, who had a long history of knee injuries in college, suffered another knee injury in Week 11’s overtime loss to the Carolina Panthers. With the L.A. Rams holding their 2026 first round pick, the Falcons could be among the franchises in the worst shape right now but on the Rams side, Atlanta’s slide is great for their 2026 draft capital.
Could the Falcons even lose out and get the number one pick?
All the way back in May, I wrote that the Falcons were taking too much of a risk to trade their 2026 first round pick to L.A. because in my opinion Atlanta was more likely to be one of the worst teams in the league than one of the best.
“General manager Terry Fontenot, who is 0-for-4 in attempts to have a winning season on the job, doesn’t make that move if he believes he has a five-year plan in front of him.
Fearful that his hot seat will explode if the Falcons do not win games immediately (the last GM and HC were fired after an 0-5 start in 2020), Fontenot is betting that the team is good enough to make the playoffs and make fans forget that he traded the future for James Pearce.
I would be willing to take that bet against Fontenot.“
To date, Fontenot has not been fired. But both he and head coach Raheem Morris, whose hiring by Atlanta awarded the Rams two third round compensatory picks, are firmly on the hot seat as the Falcons sit at 3-7.
The pick going to the Rams right now is 8th overall.
In a way, the Falcons control their own fate as far as the draft picking going to L.A. because their next two games are on the road against teams that have worse records than them:
- Week 12, at 2-8 Saints
- Week 13, at 2-8 Jets
Both of those teams have won games more recently than Atlanta. In their last game, the Saints beat the same Panthers team that the Falcons just lost to in overtime. Meanwhile, the Jets have won two of their last three.
If the Falcons were to lose their next two games, they would be 3-9 and the Saints, Falcons would both have at least three wins. The Rams must also be on draft watch for the Titans, Giants, Browns, Raiders, and Commanders.
The Giants have been putting up a fight every week, recently losing to the Bears and Packers by a touchdown or less. New York fired head coach Brian Daboll and had to start Jameis Winston this week but could get back Jaxson Dart.
After facing the Saints and Jets, the Falcons next get the Seahawks, Bucs, Cardinals, Rams, and Saints in the finale.
L.A. could help themselves out by beating the Falcons, plus the Seahawks and Bucs will be difficult matchups. If we theorize an 0-3 record against the potential playoff teams, that puts the Falcons at no better than 7-10. If they split their other four games, that leaves Atlanta at 5-12.
It’s hard to predict exactly where 5-12 could land in the draft order, but the 5-12 Jets picked seventh this year.
Is Kirk Cousins even worse than Penix?
Some Falcons fans might even be excited to see Kirk Cousins start some games because it wasn’t like Penix was lighting the world on fire; his team is 3-7.
Penix limited his turnovers — 9 touchdowns, 3 interceptions in nine starts — but he’s hardly looked like he’s worthy of a top-10 pick in 2024, which many of us were shocked by at the time. Again, Terry Fontenot still somehow has his job.
Penix is only completing 60% of his passes and between Weeks 7-10, Penix completed 53% and averaged only 6.2 yards per attempt as the Falcons struggled to find the end zone. He didn’t throw any interceptions but fumbled in all three games.
Cousins still looks as uncomfortable in Atlanta as ever, however. He might actually be worse than Penix.
With so many NFL teams trotting out terrible quarterbacks every week, there must be a significant non-financial reason that nobody wanted to trade for Kirk Cousins. The answer seems to be as simple as “he sucks now”.
Cousins led the NFL in interceptions last season (16) despite only playing in 14 games. He has zero touchdowns and 4.8 yards per attempt on 52 throws this season. If you think Dillon Gabriel, Marcus Mariota, and Cam Ward are bad, perhaps you ain’t seen nothin’ yet.
The Falcons could end up winning half of their remaining games and then maybe the Rams “only” get the 10th overall pick or something. But Atlanta has an outside shot of losing at least 6 of their last 7 — it’s all collapsing around Morris — and then that top-5 pick I predicted all the way back in May starts to look very real.
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