The 31st-ranked offense versus the 31st-ranked defense under the Monday night primetime lights.
That’s likely not the Week 11 marquee matchup NFL schedule makers wanted, but 11 weeks into the 2025 season, that’s the basic gist of the Las Vegas Raiders playing host to the Dallas Cowboys.
We’ll see Chip Kelly’s Raiders offense — scoring a meager 139 total points (31st amongst the 32 teams) — clashing with Matt Eberflus’ Cowboys defense — allowing a staggering 277 total points (31st among the 32). Las Vegas is averaging just 15.4 points per game (just slightly ahead of the Tennessee Titans who are dead last in scoring offense at 130 points and an average of 14.4 points per game heading into Week 11 action). Dallas is allowing an average of 30.8 points per game (just ahead of the Cincinnati Bengals who’ve allowed a league-high 300 points and 33.3 points per game average).
So if you want to dub this the “Somethings Gotta Give” Bowl, it’d be apt.
How Kelly attacks Eberflus on third downs and in the red zone looms large and likely dictates how Monday night’s contest plays out.
Getting granular: The Cowboys are dead last in limiting third-down conversions. Out of 116 situations so far, the opposition gained a first down on 61 of those occasions for a 52.6 percent conversion rate. Eberflus’ defense are ranked 29th in defending the red zone. Of the 36 times opponents have entered the area between the 20-yard line and end zone, Dallas allowed a touchdown 25 of those occasions for a 69.4 percent conversion clip.
To give you a visual representation of this, take a look at the clip below:
Air It Out
Las Vegas would be wise to go aerial when attacking Dallas’ defense inside the 20-yard line. Of the most recent 20 red zone touchdowns out of the total of 20 the Cowboys have allowed, 14 were passing scores compared to just six rushing touchdowns.
In Dallas’ two most recent outings — a 44-24 loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 8 and a 27-17 defeat to the Arizona Cardinals in Week 9 (Dallas had a bye in Week 10) — the team allowed six red zone touchdowns: Four passing, two rushing.
So if there’s ever an opponent to have a get-right/bounce back effort from even a struggling Raiders offense, it’s against the Cowboys.
Kelly conducts the an offense that ranks 15th on third-down conversions — 44 of 112 (39.3 percent) — but is in lower run of NFL rankings in the red zone at 11 touchdowns on 23 visits (47.8 percent). That’s good for 28th in the league.
So while going through the air is wise — paging tight end Brock Bowers and to an extent, veteran wide receiver Tyler Lockett — it doesn’t mean Kelly should forgo the run altogether in the money zone. Of course, pass protection and run blocking are vital, but overall execution is integral. Getting rookie running back Ashton Jeanty carries and even receptions is going to be vital. Such as this play call and touchdown against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 9:
Via Tele-Graham
Patrick Graham and his Raiders defense will have their work cut out for them matching up against Brian Schottenheimer’s Cowboys offense. The head coach and play caller orchestrates the fourth-ranked group in points scored (263) and yards gained (3,406). Dallas has the sixth-highest third-down conversion rate at 43 percent (46 of 107) and hits paydirt on 21 of 34 red zone visits (61.8 percent, good for 13th overall).
In those two categories above, Graham’s unit ranks 29th on third down stops allowing 54 conversions on 120 attempts (45 percent). But Las Vegas has tightened up in the red zone allowing 20 end zone visits on 34 attempts (58.8 percent), good for 15th in the NFL.
Overall, though, the Raiders defense is ranked 20th in points allowed (220) and 15th in yards yielded (2,887).
Of the Cowboys most recent 10 end zone touchdowns, six arrived via passing and four on the ground. Thus the Raiders will need to not only account for quarterback Dak Prescott (17 touchdown passes to six interceptions on the year) and running back Javonte Williams (team-leading eight rushing touchdowns), but Graham will need to have a plan to defend wide receiver George Pickens and tight end Jake Ferguson who each have a team-leading six touchdown receptions.
Quote of Note
“I’ve got to cut it loose, man. Just don’t think too much. Just go out there and cut it loose, play your game. Protect the football first and foremost. The last eight games of the season, I want to be the best in the league in terms of protecting the football. I mean, that’s really what it is, and then just cut it loose, man. We’ve got to score points. We’ve got to score a lot more points than we have. We’ve got to pick it up. I know I’ve been saying we’ve got to learn and grow together, which is true, but now is around the time where it should start to show up on game day. And so, yeah, I want to go out there and I want to play really, really good football and take care of the football, take care of the team, put points on the board, get the defense a lead to work with, and watch those guys go hunt.”
—Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Geno Smith on what he’s hoping to see out of the offense over the final stretch
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