The Miami Dolphins face the Washington Commanders on Sunday in the NFL’s first regular-season game from Madrid, Spain. Both teams are in the midst of seasons they did not expect, with both clubs 3-7 on the year and hoping for a spark to turn things around ahead of an offseason of retooling and rebuilding.
Miami and Washington have only met 14 times in the regular season, though they have split two Super Bowl matchups including the first meeting between the teams when Miami completed the Perfect Season in the 1972-1973 season. The Dolphins won the most recent game, beating the Commanders 45-15 in 2023.
I had a chance this week to speak with Andrew Y from SB Nation’s Commanders team site, Hogs Haven, to get a look at the 2025 season for the Commanders and what might be in their future.
You can check out the Dolphins side of our preview conversation at Hogs Haven.
So far, Mariota has looked competent whenever coming in to replace Jayden Daniels. He also has a very similar playstyle as Jayden Daniels, with good ability to progress through reads, good accuracy at various levels of the field, and athleticism to threaten as a runner, all of which makes him an excellent fit for Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. In his starts earlier this season, he led the Commanders to a 41-24 win over the Raiders, managed to score 27 points on a stingy Falcons defense, but had more trouble with tough Chiefs and Seahawks defenses where none of his receivers could get open. The offensive scheme doesn’t really change with him, though designed QB runs are less effective.
The main difference between Mariota and Jayden Daniels is that Mariota can execute the full offense and get whatever plays are created by the offensive scheme and his receivers, whereas Jayden Daniels has the additional ability to extend plays and operate outside of structure to get first downs even when the scheme/players didn’t get open. However, that has been an issue recently as receivers aren’t getting open and the offensive scheme doesn’t seem to be creating opportunities, so it’s getting stuck in the mud without Jayden’s ability to make something out of nothing. I don’t blame Mariota for this though, so much as his supporting cast for not getting open.
Injuries have clearly been the story in Washington. They currently have 11 players on injured reserve, and they continue to see players on the active roster having to miss playing time. Other than Daniels, who has been the biggest loss for the Commanders and how have they made adjustments?
It’s not just the number of players on IR, it’s the importance of those players. It seems like the best players at multiple position groups have been some of the first to get injured. Other than Daniels, I’d say the biggest losses are WR Terry McLaurin and DE Dorance Armstrong.
McLaurin is the only pass catcher whom teams respect enough to put safeties deep and play honest defense against. All of the other pass catchers, teams seem to think they can assign a single DB to cover in man coverage, which allows them to bring their entire defense closer to the line of scrimmage to either blitz or stack the box against the run, which has both killed our run game and resulted in the OL getting overwhelmed in pass protection. In short, his injury changed the way defenses play us and caused the entire offense to regress.
Armstrong was by far our best pass rusher and was averaging a sack per game before getting a season-ending knee injury in week 7. The Commanders had a 37% pressure rate in weeks 1-7, but that dropped to a 17% pressure rate after week 7 (and the loss of Dorance Armstrong). Not coincidentally, it was after Armstrong’s exit that the defense seemed to completely fall apart and the team has lost by 20+ points in each game. Without Armstrong, Washington can’t get pressure without sending a blitzer, but can’t maintain coverage while blitzing.
If you were Miami, how would you attack the Washington defense? How would you stop the offense?
You can attack the defense any way you want, except maybe with runs up the gut (we still have good DTs and a good downhill tackling LB in Bobby Wagner). Runs to the edge are very effective, since the Commanders have lost their top 3 DEs to IR and their secondary has proved bad at run fits and tackling. Virtually any sort of play action will cause our DBs to bite hard on the run and open up the field to passing. Overall though, get the ball to your fast players in space, since our secondary is often out of position and bad at tackling. Last week, Jahmyr Gibbs (172 scrimmage yards, 3 TDs) and Jameson Williams (119 receiving yards, 1 TD) did whatever they wanted, I fully expect De’Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle to do the same.
In terms of stopping the offense, I’d do what most teams have done since Terry went down with injury: play simple man coverage against Washington’s pass catchers and bring extra defenders close to the line of scrimmage to either blitz or stack the box against the run. Until any other Washington pass catcher shows the consistent ability to get open vs man coverage, there is no reason to play them differently.
If things continue like this for the rest of the year, what are the odds the Commanders fire Dan Quinn during the season? After the year?
If you had asked me this four weeks ago, I’d have said Dan Quinn and this coaching staff are pretty safe after getting to the NFC Championship Game last year and having a ton of injuries to excuse their struggles this year. However, since week 7, the Commanders have lost by 21+ points in four straight games, the first teams in 23 years to do so. Losing that badly again and again takes a toll on players, coaches, fans, and (I have to imagine) management. Not only that, but other teams like the 49ers (former home of current Washington GM Adam Peters) have managed to stay somewhat competitive despite a similar cascade of injuries, which makes it seem like good coaches should be able to find some way to stay competitive.
So if you ask me right now, what are the odds of Dan Quinn being fired either in season or at the end of the season? I’d say still rather low, pointing to the cascade of injuries, the fact that this team was 4-13 in 2023 under Ron Rivera with only two offseasons since then to rebuild, and the fact that there should probably be some firings of defensive coaches and an attempt to reboot the defense in the offseason first, before a reboot of the entire coaching staff. However, if the Commanders continue to lose by 21+ points each week for another 7 weeks, it would be unprecedented and I can’t even begin to imagine the psychology at play in that situation. I would have to imagine almost anything would be on the table, including a reboot of the coaching staff.
What do you want to see from Washington the remainder of the season? What are your expectations?
I’ve given up on the Commanders making the playoffs. Not only are the mathematical chances of the Commanders making the playoffs poor given their record and division, but the number of season-ending injuries to key players makes it even less likely they can win future games. What I want to see is the following: no more major injuries, some players (notably Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin) coming back from injury, and the team still occasionally playing like a plucky underdog team that can surprise people similar to last year. I especially want to see evidence of Jayden Daniels and other young players developing.
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