For the first time since Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season, the Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions are set to face off. It’s a high-stakes tilt between two of the top teams in the NFC.
In order to preview this Week 11 Sunday Night Football matchup, I reached out to our enemies over at Pride Of Detroit. The righteous Ryan Mathews kindly took the time took the time to answer my questions about this upcoming battle. Let’s take a look at the answers.
[For my answers to questions about the Eagles, stay tuned to POD.]
Campbell touched on why he made the decision to take over play-calling duties in the postgame presser last week against the Washington Commanders, and it really boiled down to a few factors. Aside from their Week 4 game against the Cleveland Browns–and the fiasco that was Week 6’s call from New York against the Chiefs–the offense had scored a touchdown on the opening possession of every game, but had failed to keep any sort of rhythm thereafter. Week 10’s matchup with the Minnesota Vikings could’ve been the tipping point: Detroit found the end zone on the team’s opening possession, but five of their next seven drives went three-and-out. Against the Commanders, eight of the Lions’ nine possessions ended in points–the ninth drive was the end of the game.
So keeping a better rhythm on offense was obviously a priority, but some of Campbell’s comments also came back to the old adage of “if you want something done right, do it yourself.” He admitted it’s difficult for someone like offensive coordinator John Morton to know exactly what Campbell wants the offense to look like, and since no one knows that better than Campbell himself, he took over the reins. “I just know I have a good feel for our players, and I know what we’re capable of–I know what they’re capable of,” Campbell said to put the decision to take over play-calling duties into context as best as he could. Chalk it up to rhythm, football intuition, and expectations.
As for some of the specific changes that resulted from Campbell calling the plays, the Lions utilized a lot less 12 personnel (16.2%) than they had been using through their first eight games of the season (35.2%). This provided for some more opportunities for Detroit to get their more talented and dynamic pass-catchers like Kalif Raymond and Isaac TeSlaa to get on the field and make a difference. Raymond’s 38 snaps on offense was the most he’d played since Week 1 (44), and TeSlaa’s 20 offensive snaps were the third-most he’s had in a game this season. Also, the offense leaned a lot more play-action (51.1% of dropbacks) compared to his rate the rest of the season (27.3% of dropbacks prior to Week 10).
2) What is the Lions’ biggest advantage in this matchup against the Eagles?
On paper, it feels like the Lions’ biggest advantage in this matchup is the running game–on both sides of the ball. Under Campbell’s direction, the Lions’ run game–granted it was against a very average Commanders’ run defense–looked a lot more like itself from the past couple of seasons. The Eagles’ run defense ranks 21st in DVOA, 18th in rush EPA/play, so it looks like the Lions could have some success on the ground if the game script allows for them to stick to what’s made their offense so successful.
As for the defensive side of the ball, the Lions predicate themselves on stopping the run and they really shut down a Commanders’ run game (3.4 yards per carry across 27 carries) that had been keeping that unit afloat recently (14th in DVOA prior to Week 10). From the outside looking in, it doesn’t seem like Philadelphia is having the same success running the ball this year, so it feels like Detroit has an opportunity to force the Eagles to become more one-dimensional on offense.
3) What is the Lions’ biggest disadvantage in this matchup against the Eagles?
While the Lions’ run game could be an advantage, there’s certainly room for the Eagles defensive tackles, namely Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter, to swing things in Philadelphia’s favor. The interior of the Lions offensive line consists of backup Kayode Awosika, veteran Graham Glasgow, and rookie Tate Ratledge, so there could be a serious edge there for Philly if those in the middle of their defense show up.
And that counts double if the Eagles can generate push through the middle of Detroit’s front and affect the passing attack. Goff’s limited mobility prevents him from escaping or evading pressure, and if the pressure up the middle is quick, it’s going to result in the Lions having to scrap plays before they have a chance to develop. Prior to last week, some of the concern about the Lions offense had to do with the routes taking longer to develop downfield, thus resulting in teams like the Vikings having a field day against Goff. It will be up to Campbell, Morton–who still very much has a role in the passing offense–and Goff to mitigate that opportunity for the Eagles to derail Detroit’s offensive gameplan.
4) If the Lions could steal one player from the Eagles to help their roster, who would they take and why?
Quinyon Mitchell, without a doubt. If the Lions would have had a chance to draft the Toledo product–he was taken just two slots ahead of where Detroit moved up to select Terrion Arnold–he would have solved Detroit’s cornerback situation that they’ve spent the last three offseasons trying to figure out.
Arnold has had an up-and-down career to this point, struggling with penalties his rookie season and having trouble staying on the field this year due to injuries. Mitchell’s consistency and sticky coverage would make him a welcome addition to a Lions team that plays more man coverage than any team in the league.
5) Who wins this game and why? With the Eagles currently listed as 2.5-point home favorites, what’s your score prediction?
Figuring out who’s going to win a game between two NFL teams as talented as the Lions and Eagles always comes down to who has the best counter-punch. If the Eagles can stop the Lions on the ground, it’s hard for me to see the Lions leaning heavily on the pass game against this Vic Fangio-led defense to win the game. But if Philadelphia can’t prevent Detroit from gaining four or five yards consistently on first down, and the Lions manage to stay on schedule more often than not, Goff and Co. are going to put up points.
Now, if Detroit’s secondary is as banged up as it looks on the injury report, and they don’t feel so comfortable playing zone defense without safety Kerby Joseph on the field–who is likely going to miss his fourth game in a row–then it’s going to be an opportunity for Philadelphia’s passing offense to right the ship. They have as much as talent as any team in their passing attack, and it could very well keep up with any sort of offense Detroit puts on the board. In the end, this game is going to come down to who makes it a point to impose their will up front. Can Detroit’s pass rush get to Jalen Hurts? Does Philly’s offensive line make room for Barkley?
With the Lions hurting on defense, think the Eagles ultimately get it done on their home field, 21-17. But at full strength–maybe some time in late January–this could be one of the better matchups you or your uncle have seen in your NFL-watching lives.
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