Steve Maltepes, known as “The Philly Godfather,” will impart his gambling wisdom on the Eagles and where the smart money is going on various pro football games each weekend this season. Maltepes is one of the nation’s hottest sports betting experts who appears weekly on national radio, is the best-selling author of “Booked: The True Life Story of the PhillyGodfather,”and has his own website, www.thephillygodfather.com.
Detroit Lions (6-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-2) at 8:20 p.m. Sunday
The Line: Eagles minus-2.5/Total: 46
What is the line telling you:
You can’t argue with success. The Philadelphia Eagles are 7-2, tied for the best record in the NFC with the Seattle Seahawks and L.A. Rams, despite having only a +26 point differential — the fourth-best mark in the conference.
The current line has the Eagles laying 2.5 at home with a combined total of 46. The Detroit Lions are by far the best offense the Birds have faced all season. It feels like the Eagles keep doing it with mirrors and magic this year as they continue to beat some of the NFL’s top teams — the Chiefs, Buccaneers, Rams, and Packers — but if you look at the health scores of those opponents at the time they played, the Eagles had a distinct advantage in every matchup.
This weekend, a really banged-up Detroit Lions team heads to Philly, and again the Eagles hold an overall +8 health advantage. But the biggest disparity comes in the health of each team’s pass defense, where Philly has a staggering +24 edge.
Bottom line:
Betting on both teams blindly this season has made the average sports bettor a nice profit, as the Eagles and Lions are each 6-3 against the spread. What worries me about investing in the Eagles this week is the fact that they played three teams that rank inside the top 10 in offensive yards per play — the Cowboys, Rams, and Chiefs — and all three games came down to the wire. The Lions rank even higher in that metric and sit No. 2 overall in points scored per game.
The Eagles’ defensive line will have to bring the pressure this week to cover the Vegas number, which has been an issue most of the season, as they rank 21st in the NFL in sacks per game while the Lions rank fourth. It’s a tough game to handicap, but if this line hits Eagles -3, take the Detroit Lions and the points. This is an underdog with an offense that can score quickly on any team, even with a banged-up pass defense. Bet the over 46 as well.
Prop bets for the game:
Over Jalen Hurts Passing Yards
A.J. Brown Anytime TD
Over Jared Goff TD Passes
Dallas Goedert Anytime TD
(Betting lines are subject to change.)
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