The Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles face off on Sunday night in a game that is bound to have huge implications for the NFC playoff race. The Eagles currently hold the top seed in the conference, and with such a comfortable lead in the NFC East, their playoff hopes are not in doubt. It’s just a matter of which seed they’ll earn at this point.
The Lions, on the other hand, hold the conference’s third spot and are in a very tight divisional race. This game, without a doubt, has more stakes for the Lions, but who has the statistical edge? Let’s find out in our Lions vs. Eagles On Paper preview and prediction.
Lions pass offense (6th in DVOA) vs. Eagles pass defense (11th)
The Lions offense had a huge bounce-back game last week against the Commanders, and while it may not seem like a huge change based on the chart, a deeper dive into the statistics show just how much that game even improved their season-long rankings. Here’s where they stand now compared to last week:
- Passer ranking: 118.0 (1st) — last week: 116.5 (2nd)
- Yards per attempt: 8.1 (5th) — last week: 8.0 (6th)
- EPA/dropback: 0.257 (5th) — last week: 0.201 (8th)
- Dropback success rate: 53.2% (4th) — last week: 51.5% (9th)
Now, granted that came against a poor Commanders defense (27th in pass defense DVOA). Still, it was relieving to see the Lions passing attack operate in a way that looked familiar.
The biggest question is whether the Lions’ offensive line can repeat their sack-less performance. While Jared Goff has avoided a single sack in four of nine games this year, the pass protection has been inconsistent, at best. Detroit ranks 20th in PFF pass blocking grade, 27th in ESPN’s pass block win rate, 17th in pressure rate, and 13th in sack rate.
Goff could also be without one of his go-to options on third down, with tight end Sam LaPorta missing two practices with a back injury. Though it’s worth pointing out that the Eagles currently rank No. 1 in defensive DVOA against tight ends, so he has a tough matchup anyways. The better matchup for Detroit is utilizing Jahmyr Gibbs in the passing game, where the Eagles rank 29th in defensive DVOA against running backs. Last week, Gibbs found some success in that area, catching three passes for 30 yards and a touchdown.
This is a stunningly good chart for the Eagles’ pass defense. And when you look closer, you see how Philly has shut down the likes of Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford, and Baker Mayfield—just in the first four weeks of the season. They’ve only allowed over 250 passing yards twice, and only allowed a passer rating above 90 twice all year.
I’m fully-convinced this is not only a top-10 pass defense, but likely a top-five. Here’s where they rank in some other statistical categories:
- Passer rating allowed: 80.2 (4th)
- Y/A allowed: 6.5 (6th)
- Dropback EPA: 0.062 (15th)
- Dropback success rate: 45.3% (12th)
It’s a little surprising to see their last two advanced metrics so low, but I suspect part of the reason—especially with EPA—is the fact that they haven’t created many negative plays this year. They have just five interceptions (t-20th) despite ranking 11th in passes defended, and they only have 19 sacks on the season (24th). Still, they seem to be doing everything else right, including preventing big plays. They’ve allowed just 26 passing plays of 20+ yards, t-12th best in the NFL.
Their secondary is playing outstanding. Quinyon Mitchell (24th among CBs in PFF coverage grade) and nickel Cooper DeJean (7th) lead the way, but the third corner—Adoree Jackson (98th)—is their biggest liability.
As for the lack of pass rush, the Eagles may have found a solution in Jaelan Phillips. In his first game with the Eagles last week, Phillips produced eight pressures, two quarterback hits and a tackle for loss. And while the edge defenders are still a bit questionable, Jalen Carter’s interior presence as a pass rusher (28 pressures, t-10th among DTs) will be a force to be reckoned with.
Player to watch: Lions’ interior OL. While the Eagles won’t produce exotic looks like the Vikings and their blitz percentage is just 26th in the league, that interior defensive line is full of dudes and Detroit’s patchworked offensive line still has a lot to prove despite last week’s strong performance.
Advantage: Draw. Philly is so stout on all three levels of the defense that this could be a tough week for the Lions’ passing attack. Then again, with Dan Campbell taking over play-calling last week, Detroit seems to have gotten a shot in the arm. Because of the small sample size there, the confidence level is low in predicting the result this week, so we’re calling it a draw.
Lions run offense (6th) vs. Eagles run defense (21st)
I’ve been pretty skeptical of the Lions rushing attack for much of the season, but if they can start playing like last week, any doubts will evaporate. Detroit not only found some explosive plays in the running game again, but their 48.5% success rate on the ground showed a level of down-to-down consistency that had been missing between explosives.
For the season, the Lions rank:
- 10th in yards per carry (4.7)
- 9th in rush EPA (-0.012)
- 22nd in success rate (40.6%)
So, you can still understand some of my skepticism.
There are some more promising signs that last week’s performance could be real, though. For example, the Lions rank second in PFF’s team run blocking grade (78.2) and fifth in yards before contact per carry (1.83)—suggesting the offensive line is doing their part. The problem seems to be there’s always just one piece missing. If Detroit has figured that out—like they did last week—we could be in for a second-half-of-the-season resurgence.
The Eagles’ run defense was a disaster to start the season, but they’ve admittedly settled down a bit as of late. Through six games, the Eagles ranked:
- 24th in YPC (4.7)
- 22nd in rush EPA (-0.061)
- 29th in rush success rate (46.5%)
But since Week 7, they rank:
- 4th in YPC (3.7)
- 4th in rush EPA (-0.200)
- 8th in rush success rate (39.1%)
While that is a dramatic turnaround, I’m not yet ready to crown the Eagles run defense as fixed. For one, it’s a very small sample size. Additionally, that sample size includes a Giants team without Cam Skattebo, a Vikings team without Aaron Jones, and a Packers team who lost their starting center 27 snaps into the game.
Still, with the recent returns of Nolan Smith and Nakobe Dean, plus the addition of Jaelan Phillips, it’s safe to say this Eagles front seven is in the best shape its been all year, and that makes them a tougher matchup here than the season-long stats would suggest.
Player to watch: Gibbs. Quite simply, he can take over games. Last week’s performance was a perfect example of giving Gibbs an inch, and he’ll take a mile. He ranks fourth in yards per carry (5.4) and t-third in rushing touchdowns (eight).
Advantage: Lions +1. I’m a little hesitant to overreact to positive trends from both teams here, but I’m also getting a little “catching the Eagles at the wrong time” vibes. Given the players they have on their front seven, there’s no reason for them to struggle like they did earlier in the season. Still, Detroit’s offensive line faced a strong Washington interior last week and dominated them.
Eagles pass offense (7th) vs. Lions pass defense (3rd)
The Eagles don’t throw the ball a ton (30th in attempts), so that explains some of the red in the left column. But when they do throw, they are pretty dang effective. That’s why they rank:
- Fifth in passer rating (112.0)
- Eighth in yards per attempt (7.7)
- 10th in dropback EPA (0.153)
- 20th in success rate (45.5%)
Hmm, that last stat. High EPA, low success rate. Avid readers know what’s coming now… EXPLOSIVE PLAYS! The Eagles have 26 passing plays of 20+ yards, which ranks… tied for 16th. But if we bump that to 40+ yard plays, they’re second in the NFL with seven. That explains some of the discrepancy, but I think this explains even more: third downs.
On third down, the Eagles’ passing offense ranks:
- 30th in completion percentage (65.1%)
- 27th in sack rate (14.1%)
- 16th in conversion rate (37.0%)
When it comes to high-leverage plays, the Eagles passing attack has under-delivered this season.
Still, Hurts plays a very safe, very efficient style of football. It’s just a matter of forcing them off the field on critical downs.
Detroit’s pass defense, while very high in DVOA, has been somewhat unpredictable this year. The good news is they’ve yet to allow over 250 net passing yards in a single game. But while they’ve held three opponents below an 80 passer rating this year, they’ve also allowed four over 125. I don’t really know what to think. But, admittedly, most of the metrics look pretty good:
- 17th in passer rating (93.1)
- 18th in yards per attempt (7.0)
- 11th in dropback EPA (0.020)
- 4th in success rate (43.0%)
Again, the good success rate being an outlier shows that the Lions are giving up too many explosive plays. Detroit has allowed 14 passing plays of 30+ yards, which is tied for fourth-most in the NFL. If they can clean up those plays, they’ve been remarkably efficient in between them.
Pass rush will be the story of this matchup. The Eagles are allowing the ninth-highest pressure rate and the seventh-highest sack rate. While the Lions defense ranks fifth and fourth in pressure and sack rate, respectively. But here’s the kicker: the Lions are allowing the third-longest time to throw (2.86 seconds) while the Eagles take the seventh-longest time to throw (2.82 seconds). With Hurts holding onto the ball so long, it could be a big pressure day for Detroit.
That said, we have to talk about secondary injuries for the Lions right now. At this point, it seems unlikely Detroit will have starters Terrion Arnold and Kerby Joseph. I’m skeptical starter D.J. Reed will return after just one week of practice. To add to the adversity, Amik Robertson popped up on the injury report Thursday. That’s a tough look for a strong Eagles receiving corps.
Player to watch: A.J. Brown. Brown’s efficiency has plummeted this year (83.0 yards per game in 2024, 51.0 per game in 2025), and he’s let everyone know about it. While he’s been complaining all year, it feels like it came to a head this week, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Eagles try to force-feed him this week, especially with a weakened Lions secondary.
Advantage: Eagles +1. I don’t expect Hurts to rack up 300 yards or anything—that’s just not how this offense operates. But with Detroit’s secondary injuries, I do think they should be able to find a level of efficiency, and possibly hit on an explosive play or two.
Eagles run offense (22nd) vs. Lions run defense (7th)
Without a doubt, this is the most shocking development of the Eagles’ 2025 season. The run game has been, essentially, a disaster all season after being one of the most dominant units in football last year. The only real sign of hope lately was their Week 8 performance against a very, very bad Giants run defense. Everything else has been pretty underwhelming.
For the season, the Eagles rank:
- 22nd in yards per carry (4.0)
- 12th in rush EPA (-0.030)
- 18th in success rate (41.4%)
Run blocking metrics are mixed. They’re eighth in PFF grade, 13th in run block win rate, but just 30th in adjusted line yards. That’s heavily influenced by the fact that 24% of their runs are “stuffed” (tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage), the third-highest rate in football. It’s worth noting that teams stack the box 31.7% of the time (second-highest), but Saquon Barkley is still capable of the explosive runs, with the Eagles ranking t-12th in 10+ yard runs this season.
The Lions run defense hasn’t been dominant—only holding a single team under 75 rushing yards—but they’ve been pretty dang efficient, and they have yet to be truly picked apart on the ground. No team has hit the 150 yard mark, either.
For the season, Detroit ranks:
- 10th in yards per carry (4.0)
- 1th in rush EPA (-0.0.99)
- 15th in success rate (40.7%)
What’s interesting about this matchup is that the things that the Eagles are bad at, the Lions are also bad at. For example, while the Eagles get stuffed so many times, the Lions have one of the worst stuffed rates in football (13.7%).
But the opposite is true, too, because it’s strength vs. strength in short-yardage situations. Philly, powered by the Tush Push, ranks first in the NFL with a 85% power success rate. While the Lions defense ranks first in the NFL, allowing just a 45% power success rate.
Player to watch: DJ Reader. With Eagles center Cam Jurgens battling an injury and questionable to play, the Lions have an opportunity to exploit the middle of Philly’s offensive line. It’s hard to quantify Reader’s impact as a run-stuffing nose tackle, but it’s there.
Advantage: Lions +1.5. This is about as clear of an advantage as you’ll get in this complete matchup, and for the Lions, it’s an important one, because Philly does not abandon the run. I don’t quite understand why the Eagles have struggled here, but given the Lions have been able to hold almost everyone in check—including mobile quarterbacks—this looks like critical edge for Detroit.
Last week’s prediction
On Paper finally got back on the winning side with an accurate prediction of a comfortable win. My 34-17 prediction was relatively close—but ultimately too conservative—for Detroit’s 44-22 blowout win. The only matchup I missed on was giving the Lions a “draw” when it came to their rushing attack. That was a welcomed turnaround for the Lions offense—and let’s hope it sticks.
In the comment section, we had two people who came close to the final score:
- CampbellsCorner: 45-24
- Detroiter In DC: 42-21
Here is your prize: Dan Campbell’s glasses. While they look like ordinary glasses, this is actually what Campbell is able to see through them:
This week’s prediction
Detroit comes out with a +1.5 advantage, and the edge in two of four matchups. That said, there are a few things that concern me about this week:
- I fear Philly has figured out their run defense, and that could really give Detroit’s offensive flow some serious issues this week.
- Detroit’s banged-up secondary could be an issue, especially if the Eagles finally decide to make A.J. Brown part of their offensive game plan again.
- The Eagles defense is as healthy as ever, and we all saw what happened when the Vikings’ defense finally got healthy…
Still, Detroit is well-equipped to make a struggling Eagles offense (22.0 PPG in last five games) one-dimensional, their offense may have finally found an identity with Campbell as play-caller, and they’ve been excellent in primetime games.
Give me the Lions in a low-scoring thriller, 20-17 Lions.
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