LOOKING BACK: SEE RAKE, STEP ON RAKE
The Vikings came back to U.S. Bank Stadium and immediately did their trademark move of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
If you had told me we’d hold Lamar Jackson to 212 total yards and a single touchdown, and Derrick Henry to 75 yards on the ground at 3.8 yards per carry, I’d confidently say that we’d be sitting at 5-4 right now.
Then someone would remind me that I’m indeed a fan of the Minnesota Vikings, and calmer heads would prevail. I’d default to the usual skepticism and wonder how we could manage to screw it up this time.
Let’s break it down.
THE GOOD
First Drive J.J. McCarthy. Oh man, after that beautiful pass to Jalen Nailor and Aaron Jones’s ensuing touchdown, I was feeling it. “It’s happening!!!” Visions of the offense dropping 30+ points on the day felt like destiny. The positive vibes from the Lions game carried over and seemed like they would last. Unfortunately, that wasn’t the case. The realities of a promising but raw quarterback in only his fourth NFL start began to crash the party on the very next drive.
The Defense, Mostly. They wore down a bit at the end, which was understandable given the game flow, but overall, this was a winning effort against an elite opponent. In addition to the numbers highlighted above, the Ravens were held to 6-of-15 on third down (40%). Not fantastic, but not terrible either, given the offensive weapons they were facing. And while the Vikings only sacked Lamar Jackson once, they did hold him to 5.6 yards per pass. Brian Flores’s unit did even better in terms of yards per play (4.9) over a manageable 321 total yards. The continued lack of takeaways (9 – tied, 22nd) is an issue, and at some point, this needs to improve. However, given the circumstances (i.e., offensive turnovers, time of possession, etc.), it was good enough to secure the victory on Sunday.
Will Reichard, Team MVP. I enjoy joking around with our hero, and it’s all out of love and respect. There’s a solid case that he is indeed the Vikings’ MVP after nine games. Why? He’s been the only consistent performer amid a wave of inconsistency that characterizes nearly everything about this team. He’s only missed one non-controversial field goal this year and is perfect on PATs. He added two more – from 49 and 43 yards, respectively – on Sunday. It’s great not to have to worry about the kicking game for a change.
THE BAD
J.J. McCarthy, Outside of the First Drive. Yes, it wasn’t pretty. Yes, there does seem to be a pattern of declining accuracy as the game goes on. A 7/9 start turned into a 13/33 finish. Yes, some improved decision-making is clearly needed. Should this have been surprising? Probably not. I’m guilty of falling in love with the idea of immediate success, which has been somewhat common for first-time starting quarterbacks over the past decade: Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson, Brock Purdy, C.J. Stroud, Jayden Daniels, and Bo Nix all made the playoffs. You could even consider Jordan Love, despite his unique situation. Given the coaching staff, the roster, and being in the building for an entire season, it didn’t seem far-fetched that McCarthy would be the next on that list. At the very least, no factors were working against it, like what happened to Caleb Williams last year.
Let me emphasize: We can absolutely still make the playoffs! This isn’t me waving any white flags; there’s still a lot of season left. Just a few plays here and there, and we might have beaten the Eagles, Ravens, or both. But we didn’t. Bill Parcells was right: You are what your record says you are (more on him in a moment). We’re 4-5 and currently in 10th place in the NFC. This is simply opening the door slightly to the idea that, at the end of the day, maybe 2025 is just about McCarthy’s development. Maybe 2026 is the play. I hate the idea too, but ignoring it isn’t a solution either.
Either way, take a deep breath, everyone. For those in the DN game threads and across social media who declare McCarthy a bust or label him Ponder 2.0…After…Four…Games…please R-E-L-A-X. Meet context, perspective, and patience. They are your friends. Embrace them:
KOC or Me Playing Madden? I have a weakness, and it’s held me back from reaching my Madden playing potential for 35 years: I love to pass. It’s the fastest way to move from Point A to Point B. It’s more exciting. Taking the top off a defense and executing chunk plays welcomes a dopamine rush in a way that a five-yard inside run or toss play doesn’t. The problem is you don’t realize when you cross that invisible line between possibility and predictability. Opposing coaches (and savvy Madden players) see it, but you’re in denial. You believe the next time you’ll solve the puzzle and unlock the magic; all you need is one more chance.
Of course, KOC is nowhere near my extreme (yet?), but some of the same patterns have taken hold. I’ve been discussing this topic here for weeks, and there’s no need to rehash the statistics—they’re everywhere now: my past articles, also here and here at the DN, and the dominant theme across Vikings-related social media. It isn’t good.
There are always legitimate excuses. Yes, the film showed that at least two of McCarthy’s batted balls at the line were likely big gainers. Yes, the 3rd and 1 play to Jefferson one-on-one made sense at a 30,000-foot level. However, when these ingredients are combined with the larger seasonal recipe, it still comes out smelling rotten. The trend is indeed not KOC’s friend. The whole picture after nine weeks isn’t just ugly; it’s also confusing. We struggled in short-yardage rushing last year. OK, let’s bring in Jordan Mason, who led the league in forced missed tackles (37.1%), and not use him enough. We have a 22-year-old (essentially) rookie quarterback from a run-first program at Michigan, and we’re trying to get him up to speed by installing the 1991 Houston Oilers offense. Additionally, I’ve seen some conflicting numbers regarding McCarthy’s average depth of target on passing plays, but regardless of the figure used, it’s near the top of the pack. Yet another head-scratcher given the circumstances.
I love KOC. I have faith in KOC. However, our margin for error is quickly shrinking. These problems must be addressed immediately if this season is to meet the preseason expectations of the vast majority of Vikings fans. Besides Xs and Os, other changes are also needed, which brings me to…
THE RIDICULOUS
Penalties have been a problem all year, which is bad enough, but I never would have imagined the level of undisciplined chaos that unfolded on Sunday. Eight false starts in a game would be inexcusable if you were blindfolded and lining up next to the amps at a Metallica concert, but a home game in your own stadium? The Vikings now rank 31st in the NFL with an average of 8.3 penalties per game. Only the Jaguars are worse. The same goes for the turnovers. We’re second in the NFL with 16, trailing only the Dolphins. Not good, folks. Not good.
KOC has rightly been praised as the ideal head coach for the modern NFL, which emphasizes interpersonal relationships and positive reinforcement as the foundational communication strategies. There was a great clip of KOC talking into the headset to Sam Darnold last year that demonstrated this idea in action. It’s impressive, and I’m glad we have KOC as our head coach.
With that in mind, maybe, just maybe, a little dose of Bill Parcells or Mike Ditka on the sidelines once in a blue moon wouldn’t hurt. I do recall a recording outside the locker room once where KOC was apparently channeling some Bobby Knight after a loss, which is good. Hopefully, that happens more than I realize. However, perhaps that kind of thing is necessary during the game, when it can yield immediate dividends. If any game warranted it, it was last Sunday—just a thought. Regardless, something has to give. We’re not talking about just a game or two where the same problems persist; it’s now lasted the majority of the season.
MOVING FORWARD: IT’S NOW OR NEVER
With that, here come the 6-3 Chicago Bears. As is often the case when the Bears have that occasional good season, a shockingly disproportionate number of turnovers usually acts as the primary catalyst. It’s no different this year, as they lead the NFL with 20 overall. That’s nothing compared to their turnover differential, which is a ridiculous +14. The second-best is +8 (Buccaneers and Jaguars).
It should also be noted that the first half of their schedule has been filled with struggling teams. They haven’t yet beaten a team with a winning record, and these opponents currently have a combined record of 17-38-1. Things will now get much tougher, as the Browns and, unfortunately, our beloved Vikings are the only teams they will face with a losing record for the rest of the season (as of today).
On offense, Ben Johnson’s leadership has delivered immediate results. The Bears rank third in total yards per game (379.8), 11th in passing (232.4), second in rushing (147.3), and seventh in points (26.6). Is some of this due to facing weak defenses along the way? Likely. The Commanders, Cowboys, and Bengals rank 30th, 31st, and 32nd in yards allowed per game. That said, there’s no denying the Bears have improved on this side of the ball, and Brian Flores will face a more skilled and dangerous group than in Week 1.
Defense is where the vulnerabilities are and where turnovers have masked some poor performances. The Bears rank 27th in yards allowed per game (375.7), 26th against the pass (240.3), 24th against the run (135.3), and 28th in points allowed (27.4). Logic suggests the Vikings’ offense could do some damage on Sunday. But then again, logic also suggested that last week against a similarly struggling Ravens defense.
Prediction
In forecasting the 2025 season back in May, I had this to say regarding Week 11:
Week 11: Chicago Bears: After Week 1, the theme of the week is revenge. J.J. McCarthy proclaims a new sheriff in the NFC North, tossing 4 TD passes. Flores is prepared for Ben Johnson’s bag of tricks. The defense smothers Caleb Williams all game and creates multiple turnovers. Balance returns to The Force.
Minnesota Vikings: 35
Chicago Bears: 13
Yes, as you may remember, I predicted we would lose in Chicago Week 1. Luckily, I was wrong. Sadly, I’d be utterly amazed if we manage anything like an easy win on Sunday.
The only bright spot in an otherwise disappointing first half of the season is that we’re 2-0 in the NFC North, and two of our losses are against AFC teams, which are lower in tiebreaker scenarios. A win on Sunday would raise our record above .500 in the NFC (3-2) and make us 3-0 in the division, with two of the last three games at home. Of course, playing at U.S. Bank Stadium hasn’t been very successful for us so far this year, either.
I’ve said it’s hard to call any game played before November 1st a “must-win.” Now that we’re in November, this game might be just that. We can probably afford only two more losses if we want to reach the postseason, and dropping one to this Bears team could seriously hurt our chances. While the Commanders and Cowboys games aren’t as daunting as they initially seemed, the Seahawks game is definitely more challenging. After that, we still face two games against the Packers and one against the Lions.
If we don’t lose the turnover battle, I think we can squeak this one out. Given our history this year, however, that’s a big “if.” Something’s gotta give, man. We’re better than this.
Minnesota Vikings: 23
Chicago Bears: 20
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