Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy has completed his first four games in the NFL. That’s not a big sample size for any sort of definitive judgment about McCarthy- usually around game 25 is when you might begin to form some conclusions about the trajectory of a young quarterback, but even then it may be too early depending on the circumstances- like with Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield. But while we may not have a good idea about McCarthy’s trajectory until after next season, assuming he’s healthy for the remainder of this season and next, we can begin to look at areas of his game, how he’s developing, and where he needs to improve.
Accuracy
NFL quarterbacks need to do at least four things well to have successful careers as a starter. Those include throwing the ball accurately, making good decisions, pocket poise/management, and processing/progressing quickly and accurately. Being able to operate and create well off schedule including making plays running the ball complete the package of desirable qualities in a quarterback.
In terms of accuracy, McCarthy has started below expectations. His adjusted completion percentage is just 68.4% overall, which is second-to-last among starting quarterbacks this season. Adjusted completion percentage represents completed passes not including receiver drops, throwaways, spikes, or tipped/batted passes. McCarthy’s accuracy with a clean pocket is also just 68.2% over his first four games, which is quite low. North of 80% is what you want from a starting quarterback out of a clean pocket. What that translates to on a per game basis is needing to be accurate on about four more passes. That’s not a huge gap but getting there consistently involves continuing to improve fundamentals and developing more of a rapport with his receivers- particularly Justin Jefferson.
Looking back, it shouldn’t be a surprise that McCarthy and Jefferson appear to be struggling more with their rapport than McCarthy and Jordan Addison or Jalen Nailor for the simple reason that they still haven’t practiced much together. Last offseason before he was injured, McCarthy was working with the second team offense and didn’t throw to Jefferson. This offseason, Jefferson missed pretty much all of training camp with a mild hamstring issue. And then McCarthy was out for six weeks during the season. So, a year and a half after McCarthy was drafted, McCarthy and Jefferson have only a little over a month of practice time together. That shows up on the tape below, which includes all of McCarthy’s targets to Jefferson so far this season.
McCarthy has thrown several inaccurate passes targeting Jefferson, and some technically accurate passes but with poor ball placement. But Jefferson also has a few drops, ran the wrong route that resulted in a pick six, and hasn’t done particularly well in contested catch situations when McCarthy has targeted him. The disconnect is especially apparent on deep balls, as McCarthy has targeted Justin Jefferson on 8 of his 20 deep passes, completing just one of them for 50 yards with 3 interceptions.
The JJ to JJ connection has been good for just a 50% catch rate so far this season, 209 yards, 2 TDs and 4 INTs over four games. That adds up to a 49.4 passer rating when McCarthy has targeted Jefferson this season- by far the lowest of any Vikings receiver- while Jefferson is averaging just over half his career average in receiving yards per game. That’s a problem. Not entirely McCarthy’s fault, but certainly something he and Jefferson need to fix. And the only way to fix it is with more reps in practice and playing time together.
Overall, accuracy is McCarthy’s biggest area for improvement. He’s started a bit below expectations, and Kevin O’Connell has hinted at some footwork issues, but there is plenty of room for improvement as a touch passer as well. My guess is that this is something that improves more next year than this year, but hopefully he will make some gradual progress the rest of this season too.
Making Good Decisions
Apart from a few hero ball reps- two deep balls to a double-covered Jefferson that resulted in interceptions and another interception targeting Addison that was negated by a penalty- there is nothing that stands out as particularly problematic in McCarthy’s decision-making. Other interceptions or turnover-worthy plays were mostly due to inaccuracy rather than decision-making.
McCarthy generally errs on the side of being more aggressive, as he is the only quarterback in the league this season with over 100 attempts who has thrown past the sticks on over 50% of his pass attempts (55.6%), including just over 73% on third down which also leads the league. There’s probably some room to be a bit more conservative at times and actually improve results. Watching Sam Darnold last season probably influenced his play style, as Darnold is more aggressive as well (Darnold had the longest average depth of target last season and is second only to McCarthy this season). That’s also Kevin O’Connell’s style and undoubtedly a style he coaches.
Other than that, there’s some room for improvement here and there, but nothing major.
Overall, I don’t see McCarthy’s aggressive style as a bad thing, or O’Connell coaching him that way, even early on, because being a good quarterback means aggressively taking what the defense gives you.
Pocket Poise/Management
McCarthy started his career pretty well when it comes to his pocket poise and management and has also shown improvement over his first four games. He’s able to navigate the pocket well, stepping up when appropriate, and has shown glimpses of 2017 Case Keenum at times in being able to avoid sacks/pressure. He still has room for improvement, however, as he could still be calmer with his footwork and do a better job at times avoiding a sack/throwing the ball away.
But overall, this is a relative strength for McCarthy.
Processing/Progressions
McCarthy has some good reps when it comes to processing and progressions, but there is still plenty of room for improvement here for McCarthy, as is the case for every quarterback after four games. McCarthy’s average time to throw is third-highest behind Caleb Williams and Jalen Hurts and he doesn’t scramble nearly as much as Williams, which adds to average time to throw. But that stat aside, just reviewing McCarthy’s pass attempts there are plenty of opportunities where he could or should have gotten the ball a bit sooner, and a couple of those slightly late throws resulted in interceptions. But there are plenty more where he could be throwing with a bit more anticipation and timing but is just a bit slow in processing or making it through his progressions.
He doesn’t appear to be deficient in this area, which is a career killer, but he just needs more experience, more reps, more time on task for him to improve. This is completely normal for a young quarterback and McCarthy isn’t behind schedule in his development.
Bottom line, in the four key areas above, McCarthy is at least okay and/or improving to the point where it’s not a concern in three of the four areas. Accuracy is the one area where he hasn’t started as well and remains a bit behind schedule, but still plenty of time for him to improve as well.
Some Additional Insights
One way to breakdown McCarthy’s performance is looking at how he has done in scripted plays (typically the first 15 plays) compared to how he does thereafter. For a young quarterback, having the extra practice time with scripted plays can give them an extra comfort level that is more valuable for a young quarterback with still a lot to learn. That performance may also provide some advanced insight into how a young quarterback may develop as he gains more experience with the rest of the playbook and different game situations over time.
Scripted vs. Unscripted
In McCarthy’s case so far, there is definitely a sharp contrast between how McCarthy does on scripted plays and how he performs the rest of the game. During the first two drives of the game (typically scripted plays), McCarthy has an EPA of +0.34 per dropback, which is 4th-highest among QBs with at least 100 pass attempts and if he was able to maintain that the rest of the game, would be best in the league. So McCarthy definitely shows a lot of potential in that regard.
However, the rest of the game he is the worst performing quarterback in the league in terms of both EPA (-0.44) and completion percentage (50.5%). Obviously an area for improvement. But as McCarthy gains more reps with all the plays in the playbook and more experience generally, he’ll likely improve in the unscripted part of the game as he gains that familiarity and comfort and feel for the game.
He hasn’t been a complete disaster after the first two drives either, as he had the big fourth quarter comeback against the Bears in week one, which also shows promise in his ability to finish, not just start, games.
It’s also important to remember that McCarthy’s sample size for everything is still small and so EPA measures will still be skewed due to a few big plays. In McCarthy’s case, his interceptions weigh heavily on his EPA scores given he’s had six in just four games, a couple of which were not his fault.
Overall, this breakdown is something to monitor over the rest of the season and next to see how McCarthy progresses as he gains experience.
Man vs. Zone Coverage
McCarthy has struggled more against man coverage so far compared to zone coverage, as his accuracy/placement issues are more pronounced against tighter man coverage. He’s also faced the highest rate of man coverage among quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts this season as well (40.5%). That’s probably more reflective of the preferred scheme of the defenses McCarthy has faced over his first four games than a chosen approach to defend McCarthy, but either way he’s struggled more with man coverage. In particular, five of his six interceptions have come against man coverage despite just 43 pass attempts against man coverage according to NextGenStats, which gives him an enormously high interception rate against man coverage (11.6%) at this point.
Clean Pocket vs. Under Pressure
McCarthy has very little dropoff in his stats when under pressure or when blitzed compared to when in a clean pocket or when he’s not blitzed, showing he can operate relatively well under pressure compared to most quarterbacks. He actually has a higher passer rating when under pressure than when in a clean pocket at the moment. The issue for McCarthy is that his clean pocket stats are not higher, largely due to accuracy issues discussed above.
Play-Action
McCarthy struggled more early on with play-action as it seemed like he had a more difficult time processing and progressing in play-action passes. His yards per attempt on play-action is much lower than non play-action passes at just 4.4 yards. In non play-action passes its 7.1 yards. I generally get the impression that McCarthy isn’t as comfortable with play-action at this point in his career and that Kevin O’Connell may have dialed those down a bit as a result. I would imagine he’d like to ramp them up though as the situation allows and McCarthy becomes more comfortable and productive with those plays.
Middle-of-the-Field vs. Outside Throws
Kevin O’Connell’s offensive route patterns tend to target middle-of-the-field throws more often than not, often with intermediate or deep over/crossing routes, but McCarthy seems more comfortable targeting outside the numbers. McCarthy has attempted just 13 throws between the numbers 10+ yards downfield and completed just 6 of them for 135 yards, 2 TDs and 3 INTs for an 83.8 passer rating.
Outside of the numbers, however, McCarthy has attempted 33 passes 10+ yards downfield, completing 17 of them for 347 yards, 3 TDs, and 2 INTs for a 93.9 passer rating.
Overall, McCarthy has thrown over the middle-of-the-field on intermediate or deep throws (10+ yards) just 28% of the time this season, compared to Sam Darnold targeting the middle-of-the-field on 50% of those throws last season. That’s a notable difference and may reflect McCarthy being less confident in reading coverage schemes which can be more complex between the numbers or perhaps some changes in play design from Kevin O’Connell.
Bottom Line
Over his first four games, J.J. McCarthy has shown some accuracy issues, coming in below expectations in that area, but has generally done okay and is improving in the three other key areas. He’s also shown some ability and saavy as a runner at times but hasn’t done as well at this point in extending plays, as he’s been sacked 12 times while completing just four pass attempts when holding the ball over four seconds.
Part of the issue for McCarthy at this point is his lack of rapport with Justin Jefferson, largely due to lack of practice and playing time together.
McCarthy has also shown a more aggressive style, which may serve him well over his career but may add an additional degree of difficulty early on that may be reflected in some of his stats. At this point McCarthy seems more comfortable targeting outside the numbers from the shotgun, but he doubtless will develop other areas of his game with experience as well.
He has also done much better with scripted plays than later in the game in plays/situations he may not be as familiar with as a pro, but that should improve with experience and practice time. He has also shown some late game saavy in his fourth quarter comeback against the Bears on the road in primetime week one.
Overall, as McCarthy improves his accuracy, we should begin to see better results and stats and with experience we should begin to see him narrow the gap between himself and the other 2024 first-round quarterbacks who have at least a season more NFL experience than McCarthy at this point. What his ceiling is at this point is difficult to predict with such a limited sample size, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he maintains a more aggressive style.
Stay tuned.
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