Colts’ Week 10 QB Analysis: Better, not great

_{Thanks to the project, and for the timely sources of data.}

_{For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts’ QB performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)}

HOW WELL?

I guess Week 10 can be considered a bounce-back for Daniel Jones, primarily because he didn’t turn the ball over five times. It wasn’t for lack of trying, though — he still turned it over twice, fumbled out of bounds once, and recovered his own fumble once.

His 17th-ranked EPA efficiency is much lower than his 5th-ranked success rate, mostly because of the strip-sack fumble — a highly negative play. Interestingly, the interception wasn’t all that costly, as it came on 3rd-and-11 with just eight seconds left in the half.

Basically, he had a lot of consistently good plays when he was able to get rid of the ball, but sacks limited his overall value.

His 1st-down conversion rate took a dive, and his yardage efficiency was below average, illustrating his struggles to sustain drives and move the chains.

HOW FAR?

His 73.1% completion rate shows he was consistently connecting on passes — they just weren’t turning into first downs as often as in previous weeks.

Target and completion depth dropped but was still about league average.

He relies on passing depth more than most QBs — a stark contrast to his New York days, when he leaned heavily on YAC-driven plays.

TO WHO?

Tyler Warren edged out Pierce in total yards, but as you would expect, the vertical targets primarily went to Pierce.

It’s nice to have three different receivers all vying for the team lead in receiving yards, but so far, Warren holds the edge.

The majority of targets generated positive value relative to league average — even the shorter routes.

Similar view at the season level.

HOW ACCURATE?

Jones rebounded from his Week 9 accuracy issues, posting an above-average CPOE.

HOW FAST?

He was again forced to throw quickly, but even so, he took 7 sacks.

TO WHERE?

He had moderate success in most areas of the field.

The last two weeks have brought his efficiency back down to earth a bit — but it’s still solid overall.

DASHBOARD

Here’s what happened in week 10:

• Jonathan Taylor was beyond phenomenal, and for the first time this year, the Colts leaned into the run game (2nd in ARSR, 18th in EDP). However, those early-down runs made it harder to create manageable 3rd downs, as the Colts averaged 8.2 yards to gain on 3rd down — the 5th-highest mark of the week.
• The pressure stats show about an average pressure rate for Jones, but as I’ve said many times, that can be misleading. Jones also had the 9th-quickest time to throw yet still faced roughly average pressure — which suggests that he had to get rid of the ball early to avoid pressure.
• Even with the quick throws, he was able to get decent depth on both his targets and completions (21st in ADOT, 16th in AY/C).
• Add to that the strong YAC from his receivers — even after adjusting for pass depth — and it resulted in solid yardage per completion (9th in YAC, 6th in YACOE, 7th in YD/C).
• Part of that extra YAC was due to good accuracy, which also boosted completion rate and translated into top-5 yardage efficiency on pass attempts (10th in CPOE, 6th AC%, 5th in AY/A).
• Unfortunately, he had to bail on a lot of plays, posting the highest scramble rate and the 2nd-highest sack rate in the league (1st in AA%). Those abandoned attempts acted as an anchor on his yardage efficiency, dropping him from 5th on pass attempts all the way to 16th on total dropbacks.
• That made it tough to move the ball. And with a mediocre conversion rate, low touchdown efficiency, and elevated turnover rate, finishing 17th in EPA per play is almost miraculous (15th 1st%, 24th TD%, 9t TO%).

Basically, when he had time, he was very effective — but he was pressured on a large share of plays, and the longer-developing ones often ended with drive-killing sacks.

On the season, I have him ranked 10th in efficiency, but after adjusting for opponent strength, that improves to 6th overall.

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