In the NFL, context matters. So many things happen over the course of the season, many of which we as fans, and even those in the national media, are not privy to. I don’t like to throw out overused internet fan tropes, but when the Minnesota Vikings aren’t doing well, the “armchair GM’s” get their moment in the sun. All of this talk of the team giving up, of Kevin O’Connell losing the locker room, of J.J. McCarthy not being ready, is all speculation. Many times, as fans, we are left to trust our guts and come to conclusions about why things do or do not go well over the course of a drive, game, or a season.
Why does this season feel so weird?
In my first season writing for the Daily Norseman, I have never been so entrenched in all of the different opinions and theories that people in the media and on the internet have about the Minnesota Vikings. I do my best to be an objective observer of what is going on, but I cannot help but get emotional when watching and talking about my favorite football team. Maybe I never noticed it before because I have always been a huge fan of the purple Kool-Aid, but opinions about this team change every single week. And, honestly, I understand why. This is the most inconsistent season I have personally experienced, as a Vikings fan, in a long time.
Part of the reason for this is the fact that Minnesota has not had a single winning streak this season. With the exception of a dominant performance against Cincinnati, the Vikings have struggled mightily in one area or another, and no game has looked the same. First the offensive line is in shambles, then the defense can’t stop the run, then J.J. McCarthy gets hurt, then the offensive line starts to get healthy, then the offense can’t score in the redzone, then the offensive line is no longer healthy, then the secondary can’t stop giving up huge plays to Philadelphia, then Carson Wentz needs a bionic shoulder, then the team travels to a hostile environment and beats the Detroit Lions, then the offensive line looks as healthy as it has all season, and then the offense has eight false start penalties and loses an incredibly winnable game to Baltimore.
We have to go even further beyond.
Seriously, what the heck is even going on? I think there is a simple explanation for what we have been seeing on the field. The Vikings have had terrible luck this season. Now, this might be controversial because I don’t have any stats to back this up, but it seems that, with the exceptions of the games against the Bengals and the Lions, things just haven’t gone the Vikings’ way. It was evident on Sunday when a fumble by Zay Flowers literally bounced right back up into his arms mid-stride. In a game of inches, how the football hits the turf or deflects off a defender can have a huge impact. Maybe, however, this isn’t an explanation, but rather a symptom of something deeper.
What is the difference between the sizzle we saw in 2024 and the fizzle we are seeing in 2025? Last season, the Minnesota Vikings had a turnover differential of plus-12, good for fifth in the league (the Bills were number one with a plus-24 differential). Through week 10 of the 2025 season, the Vikings have a turnover differential of negative 7, which ranks 30th in the NFL. I like turnover differential as a statistic, as it takes both offensive and defensive performances into account. The Vikings have now officially played just over nine games, and with fewer than half of the season’s games remaining, have one-third of the takeaways as they did in 2024.
You need the ball in order to score.
If you extrapolate the number of interceptions Minnesota has taken from opposing offenses this year over 17 games, they would end the season with five interceptions. You heard that right, the Minnesota Vikings are on pace for FIVE interceptions for the entire season! To make the math easier, let’s round up and say the Vikings end the season with six interceptions. That would only account for 25 percent of the interceptions converted by Minnesota last season, as they intercepted the ball 24 teams over the course of 17 games. Again, this is likely a symptom of different factors.
The Vikings 2025 secondary is completely different than last season. Aside from Harrison Smith and Byron Murphy, the starters from 2025 are gone (Camryn Bynum, Stephon Gilmore, and Shaq Griffin). There is an argument to be made that this issue can go even deeper, when you consider how much different the Minnesota secondary would look if Lewis Cine actually turned into a first round talent.
What would this team look like if they had Kyle Hamilton? Like I said, context matters. What we see on the field is often just a symptom of a series of events that transpired in a particular way. Every decision is incredibly impactful in the NFL.
Ball security is of the utmost importance.
The offense is also not blameless. Last season, Minnesota was in the middle of the pack on giveaways with 21. This season, the Vikings have given the ball away a league second-worst 16 times. That is definitely not sustainable. Some of that blame comes from miscues by J.J. McCarthy. Jordan Mason also has had some fumbling issues, and we all saw Carson Wentz play. Kevin O’Connell is very aware of how crucial winning the turnover battle is. With this most recent loss, the Vikings are I believe 5-16 when they lose the turnover battle in the Kevin O’Connell era. An inability to generate turnovers coupled with a propensity to surrender turnovers is not a winning combination.
Thinking again about context, put those turnover statistics into perspective. What happens when a team is able to generate a plethora of turnovers? They put the offense in favorable positions. What is more likely to happen if an offense is in favorable positions? They tend to score more points. That in turn emboldens the defense to play more aggressively. On the other side of the coin, what happens when a defense doesn’t generate ample turnovers? The offense is more often in less favorable positions. What happens when an offense isn’t in a favorable position as often? They don’t score as many points. Do you see what I’m getting at here? When you have turnover inefficiency on both sides of the ball, you get a 4-5 record for a team that is loaded with talent.
It’s not you, it’s me.
There is an emerging trend regarding Vikings’ head coach Kevin O’Connell. It is a nuance that I think is starting to become a pattern. With so much talk about not running the football and heaving deep passes on 3rd and one instead of just RUNNING THE DAMN BALL, the prevailing consensus is that O’Connell either can’t or won’t make adjustments to fit the capabilities of his roster. In the context of what we saw with Sam Darnold last year, particularly the last regular season game against Detroit and the Wild Card debacle against the LA Rams, it is readily apparent to me that KO has a particular vision for how he wants his offense to operate.
He is the only one who truly realizes the full potential of this team. There isn’t, or at least shouldn’t be, a soul on this earth that knows this team better than Kevin O’Connell. An NFL team is an incredibly complex organism, and for a coach to have a vision, and to realize that vision through countless hours of film study, one-on-one coaching sessions, and in-game experiences, he has to wholeheartedly believe in it. In order to achieve his vision for the Minnesota Vikings, particularly the offense, KO needs the right quarterback. Sam Darnold was great while he was in Minnesota and he had many of us believing he was pumpkin-proof, until he wasn’t. The clock struck midnight week 18 in Detroit and Darnold turned into the ghost-whisperer of days past. And for those in the “they should have kept Daniel Jones” camp, where would he be without an MVP-caliber season from Jonathan Taylor? Exactly, he would be Danny Duds.
I wouldn’t worry too much if I were you.
J.J. McCarthy is a different beast entirely. What he lacks, that Darnold had as a veteran NFL quarterback, is consistent play. The quarterback position is about so much more than making cool throws. It is about commanding the huddle, managing the game, and being consistent. For a second-year quarterback making only a handful of starts, that doesn’t all happen right away. Sunday was a perfect example of where J.J. McCarthy needs to improve. He needs to make better decisions and be more even-keel throughout the course of an entire game. However, there are two things that he doesn’t lack: a killer instinct and a rocket arm.
When given the chance, McCarthy has already started to prove that he can make big time throws with the game on the line. I will be honest, I initially thought that McCarthy had sailed the ball to Jalen Nailor on 4th and goal from the 10-yard line, but instead it was a perfect laser beam that brought the game to within 8 points. It is good to know that McCarthy has the capability to go out and win a football game. If he continues to stay healthy, J.J. McCarthy will be the franchise quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings. At only 22 years old, he still has over seven years before his brain fully develops. That is plenty of time to learn the learn the ins and outs of being a professional NFL quarterback.
The sky is still the limit.
McCarthy has the magic to get it done. The now famous (hopefully never infamous) line from Kevin O’Connell in the offseason is that a franchise fails a young quarterback long before a young quarterback fails a franchise. This past Sunday against Baltimore, J.J. McCarthy’s support system failed him. A symptom of a disgusting stat of most false starts by a home team in their home stadium since the Buffalo Bills in 2009, was less favorable positions for the Vikings’ offense. The cause of those false starts, we will likely never truly know.
What we do know is that J.J. McCarthy was never going to succeed if he had to throw over 40 passes in his fourth NFL start. The expectation of this team in the offseason was one that was balanced and took pressure off of a young quarterback. Minnesota beefed up the trenches and traded for a bulldozer of a running back in Jordan Mason. The run game has to be strong for McCarthy to succeed. That was always my expectation, anyway. That, however, may not be Kevin O’Connell’s expectation. All things considered, even with too much on his shoulders, J.J. McCarthy still showed poise and flashes of why he was worth the highest pick for a quarterback in Minnesota Vikings history. The show has just begun, so buckle up!
Until Next Time.
Skol,
- Jesse M.
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