The Detroit Lions are following up one of the most disappointing losses in recent memory with a rematch of one of the most heartbreaking playoff defeats in franchise history. Many fans have spent the week in a bit of a tailspin, and while the rematch has lost some bite following the devastating injury to second-year quarterback Jayden Daniels, it still offers a chance for a get-right game.
Detroit has dropped two of its last three and looks as vulnerable as it did late in 2023, when it lost to the Packers and Bears in a three-week span—nearly collapsing against the Saints in between those two losses. But after that stretch, the Lions rebounded in a big way, blasting the Broncos 42-17 on Saturday night before rolling through the postseason to the NFC Championship Game. Dan Campbell has proven time and again that when he says something is fixable, he genuinely means it.
With Marcus Mariota and a struggling Dan Quinn defense now up next—plus a Commanders team that isn’t in peak health, this game presents an opportunity to reestablish rhythm and remind everyone why Detroit belongs in the championship conversation.
With the Lions’ offense under scrutiny—and the Commanders missing Daniels and top receiver Terry McLaurin—this preview breaks down three key statistical matchups, focusing on Detroit’s offense versus Washington’s defense, that could determine whether the Lions can get back on track and reaffirm their place among the NFC’s contenders.
Note: Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics are sourced from NFL Pro, TruMedia, FTN Fantasy, or Pro Football Reference and exclude garbage time.
Second-and-long lost Lions
The Lions’ offense has been under the microscope for its recent struggles, with every imaginable situation dissected. One area that’s drawn particular scrutiny: their second-and-long (second-and-7+) inefficiency.
Detroit leads the NFL in run rate on those downs (44.7%), but the problem is their lack of effectiveness on the ground. On 42 rushing attempts in those situations, the Lions have managed just a 28.6% rushing success rate (29th)— steep drop from 50.5% (4th) last season.
The issues extend beyond the run game. Here’s how the Lions rank overall on second-and-long this season:
- 6.1 yards/play (10th)
- 40.4% success rate (22nd)
- 21.3% first down or touchdown rate (17th)
- +0.03 EPA/play (14th)
- 10.6% explosive play rate (20th)
- 15.0% run stuff rate (20th)
- 36.5% pressure rate (t-19th)
When Detroit fails on first down, drives often unravel before they start. Sustaining possessions and producing points becomes nearly impossible—as evidenced in Week 9 against Minnesota, when the Lions went three-and-out on four consecutive drives.
Fortunately, their Week 10 opponent presents an opportunity to get back on track.
Dan Quinn’s Commanders defense—now missing key contributors like Dorrance Armstrong, Deatrich Wise Jr., former Lion Wil Harris, and most recently Marshon Lattimore Jr.—has regressed from last year’s middle-of-the-pack standard. Even rising players like Mike Sainristil have taken a step back. That’s particularly evident on second-and-long.
Washington’s defense on second-and-long this season:
- 112 plays (7th)
- 6.4 yards/play (t-24th)
- 50.9 offensive success rate (27th)
- 23.2% first down or touchdown rate (24th)
- -0.07 EPA/play (26th)
- 12.5% explosive play rate (t-23rd)
- 24.2% run stuff rate (12th)
- 39.5% pressure rate (8th)
- 24.0% blitz rate (8th — Vikings 1st, 40.6%)
The Commanders can still create disruption with pressure and run stuffs, but more often than not they’re vulnerable to being pushed around and exploited.
This matchup offers Detroit’s offense a chance to reestablish competency in a situation that’s quietly derailed too many drives. As John Morton continues to settle into his play-calling identity and the offensive line works to strengthen communication and chemistry—especially with a new left guard—second-and-long success will be a key measure of progress. The Commanders defense is the right place to start finding it.
Punishing being passive
The Lions’ opponent last week, the Vikings, sit at the top of the food chain when it comes to bringing the blitz. Their 42.3% blitz rate leads the NFL. The Commanders aren’t quite as aggressive, but it’s still a lever they have no hesitation pulling. They rank 11th in blitz rate at 28.1%, sandwiched between two recent Lions opponents—the Chiefs and Ravens—and not far behind the Buccaneers. Detroit’s offense has faced its share of pressure-heavy teams this season and, up until last week, had handled them well.
Where Washington runs into trouble, though, is when they don’t blitz.
Commanders pass defense when not blitzing this season:
- 69.9% completion percentage (t-25th)
- 112.4 passer rating (31st)
- 8.9 yards/pass attempt (32nd)
- 51.2% offensive success rate (28th)
- -0.08 EPA/play (t-28th)
- 17.9% explosive pass rate (32nd)
- 5.8 YAC/reception (t-29th)
- 35.7% pressure rate (11th)
Despite still being able to generate pressure, Washington’s coverage when rushing four is among the worst in the league—arguably the worst. While John Morton has repeatedly emphasized running the football even when it isn’t working because it’s part of the team’s identity, this is a matchup that should lean on Jared Goff and the passing game. When your offense is searching for cohesion, sometimes the simplest solution is staring you in the face.
The Lions should especially attack first downs, where Washington allows a 10.4 YAC/reception (32nd) and a 39.1% explosive pass rate (31st) when not blitzing. This secondary isn’t built to hold up in coverage for long—and they’re even less capable of tackling in space once the ball is completed. Detroit should unleash an aerial assault early and let Goff carve up this decimated and declining pass defense to set the tone and open up the run game later.
Lions play action prowl
On the season, the Lions average a 15.0% play-action rate—middle of the pack at 18th in the NFL—a notable drop from last year when they led the league in both frequency (20.2%) and efficiency (60.9% passing success rate). They’re still effective when they use it, ranking tied for eighth with the Colts at 54.2% success rate, but over the last month, they’ve gotten away from what once made them so difficult to defend.
Since Week 6, Detroit’s 11.7% play-action rate ranks just 26th league-wide. They’re only hurting themselves by not leaning on it more—and this week’s matchup offers the perfect opportunity to get back to it. Washington’s defense features a vulnerable back seven, including linebackers Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu and safety Quan Martin, who have all struggled in space particularly against play fakes.
Commanders pass defense vs. play-action this season:
- 66.2% completion percentage (16th)
- 124.6 passer rating (29th)
- 9.1 yards/pass attempt (26th)
- 8 TDs to 1 INT
- 48.8% offensive success rate (16th)
- -0.18 EPA/play (23rd)
- 22.1% explosive pass rate (t-21st)
- 8.2 YAC/reception (32nd)
While Washington isn’t consistently gashed on play action from a success-rate standpoint, the damage they’ve allowed when it does hit has been devastating. The Lions need to let their playmakers get the ball in space, rack up yards after the catch, and find rhythm through easy, high-leverage completions.
John Morton should lean on these “easy buttons”—early-down passing and play action—even if it doesn’t feel gritty. It’s about putting players in positions to succeed and building confidence from there. Be adaptable and prove the naysayers wrong.
With Marcus Mariota at quarterback, Detroit should have a clear talent edge over Washington’s ghost-ship fleet. This is the week to re-establish who they are offensively, and to show they still belong in the NFL’s elite tier before next week’s heavyweight matchup with Philadelphia.
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