The San Francisco 49ers got the best of the Los Angeles Rams the last time these two teams met in Week 5. San Francisco upset LA on the road under the primetime lights of Thursday Night Football. They’ll square off this weekend as the pecking order in the NFC West division begins to sort itself out.
But this is hardly the same 49ers team that left fans at SoFi Stadium stunned in overtime. Injuries are mounting for San Francisco and approaching unsustainable levels quickly.
These are the key individuals who are expected to be absent from the rematch:
Fred Warner, MLB
Warner is one of the best off-ball linebackers in football. Simply put, he’s as close as it gets to irreplaceable on the defensive side of the ball.
The three games of life after Warner have gone far from ideal for the 49ers. Dee Winters and Tatum Bethune are the primary replacements.
Bethune is reliable in run defense but a liability in coverage and as a tackler. Despite playing only 241 snaps (14th on SF’s defense), the second-year linebacker has already missed six tackles on the year—good for 11.8% of his attempts. In comparison, Warner missed just four tackles in 330 snaps (37% more) and Rams LB Nate Landman has missed only five tackles out of 495 plays.
In coverage Bethune has been targeted as the nearest defender 16 times (seventh most on SF’s defense), allowing 13 receptions (81.3%) for 166 yards and a passer rating of 109.9.
Winters is somehow even worse in coverage, and he does not redeem himself in run defense as well as Bethune. Winters is the 49ers’ most targeted player with 56 such plays. The next closest defender is rookie Upton Stout with 41 targets. Winters has allowed 47 receptions (83.9%) for 327 yards, five touchdowns, and a passer rating of 120.8.
Warner is no longer in the middle of this defense. The Rams will probably be able to get whatever they want over the middle of the field. That is a troubling sign for San Francisco considering LA’s recent utilization of 13 personnel and tight ends in the passing game. Sean McVay is also infamous for putting linebackers in a blender.
Mykel Williams, EDGE
As far as expectations go for the 11th overall pick, it’s difficult to be more disappointed with the debut of rookie Mykel Williams.
The Georgia product was billed as a run-first EDGE defender (why would you take such a player in the top 15 of the draft?) and has been wholly ineffective in this facet at the professional level. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF)—and among all EDGE’s with at least 245 snaps—Williams is the 46th in run defense grade. He’s also not adding juice as a pass rusher with just 19 pressures on 245 rushes. For comparison, Josiah Stewart, who the Rams drafted in the third round, has 11 pressures on 87 rushes.
Williams’ rookie season was cut short in Week 9 when he suffered an ACL injury. The 49ers might be better off without him in the lineup. He’ll be mostly replaced by the recently acquired Keion White and veteran Clelin Ferrell.
Kendrick Bourne, WR
First of all, Bourne is healthy and will play in this game. His production has fallen off a cliff of late despite looking like Puka Nacua or Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the first game against Los Angeles.
Bourne against Rams: 10 catches for 142 yards
Week 6 at Buccaneers: five catches for 142 yards
Week 7 vs Falcons: two catches for 14 yards
Week 8 at Texans: three catches for 44 yards
Week 9 at Giants: two catches for 34 yards
While Bourne was one of the main reasons San Francisco was able to upset the Rams originally, he’s been less effective in recent weeks and may not be a thorn in LA’s side this time around.
