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This article breaks down the factors that drive line movement in betting markets and helps you judge whether a shift is an overreaction or a justified adjustment. Injuries, weather and public pick releases are just a few of the forces that can swing numbers.

Early in the season, markets are especially volatile as oddsmakers and bettors alike search for a true read on each team. Big swings are common, and while knowing that lines move is useful, the real edge comes from understanding why they move. This information can shape your stance and identify the right entry points.

College football markets, in particular, are getting bet into perceived efficiency earlier than ever. What was once a slow game of chicken, waiting for the best number at a decent limit, has become a sprint, with bettors and touts racing to the window before limits peak later in the week.

We’ll examine notable market-maker opening lines and how they’ve moved since Sunday.

Tulane vs. Memphis: Tulane +6 → +4

After opening at 6, the line quickly moved to 7, but that didn’t last long before dropping back below the touchdown threshold. Since then, it’s been all Tulane money, driving the spread down to as low as 3.5 at some books. There are still plenty of 3.5s available, but we’ve seen some resistance, with a few market-making books moving back to 4. This is another huge matchup with Group of Six College Football Playoff implications.

Indiana vs. Penn State: Indiana -13 → -15

Upon opening, there was early disagreement over which side of the key number 14 this line should land on. Within minutes, it opened at 13, was bet up to 14, then fell back to 13. By Sunday evening, the line once again reached 14 and continued to climb to 16.5 at a few select books. The market has since settled at a consensus of 15, though it could close slightly higher.

Play: Indiana -14.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

This matchup feels similar to the one Penn State just played against Ohio State. Expect a comparable result, with Indiana maintaining control throughout and pulling away in the late stages.

Oregon vs. Iowa: Total 44.5 → 41

Weather game! Rain and wind are in the forecast at Kinnick Stadium when Oregon comes to town. These conditions should feel familiar for the Ducks, as they’re similar to what they faced two weeks ago against Wisconsin. In that game, quarterback Dante Moore attempted a season-low 15 passes as Oregon leaned on its ground attack. Despite the win, the Ducks failed to cover by 17.5 points, and the total finished 16.5 points below the closing line. The total in this matchup is signaling a similar result against Iowa, having dropped 3.5 points to 41, with several 40.5s now available in the market.

Wake Forest vs. Virginia: Wake +7.5 → +6.5

This line was immediately bet down from 7.5 to as low as 6 within minutes of opening Sunday afternoon. Shortly after, it was bet back up to 7, where it stayed until Monday morning. Additional support for Wake Forest pushed it back below the touchdown mark, and we’ve seen little movement since. The market is showing 6.5 across the board. The total has also been steady, bouncing between 48 and 49 throughout the week. Virginia looks to extend its seven-game win streak and remain unbeaten in ACC play.

Play: Virginia -6.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Virginia quarterback Chandler Morris continues his run of impressive play, mitigating Wake’s impressive defensive line. 

LSU vs. Alabama: LSU +11 → +10

What will we see from LSU coming off its bye week? If the market is right, the Tigers may keep this closer than expected in a road matchup at Tuscaloosa the week after firing head coach Brian Kelly. After opening at 11, the line remained steady for about a day before gradually decreasing to 10. It eventually dipped as low as 9.5 at a few books. The market is now split between 9.5 and 10. LSU also dismissed its offensive play-caller, so it remains to be seen how the team will operate in the post-Kelly era.