Available exclusively to PFF+ members in the PFF app, the PFF Player Prop Tool harnesses the power of predictive analytics and matchup data to help you make smarter, faster and more confident picks. Download the PFF app now — available on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store.

In the most efficient betting market in sports, every move matters. NFL sides and totals attract massive liquidity, making them less volatile than their college football counterparts — but also more revealing. This article breaks down the key drivers of line movement and offers tools to help you distinguish overreactions from sharp, justified adjustments.

Injuries, weather and public pick releases are just a few factors that can swing numbers. But spotting early signals — before prices settle into full efficiency — is where betting edges are made. Below, we’ll walk through how notable market-maker openers have shifted since Sunday and what those moves might be telling us.

Movement: Bears -1.5 → -3

The first move on this spread came early Monday morning, pushing the number out to 2.5. As the week progressed, growing uncertainty around Joe Flacco’s availability — and the potential for the Bengals to turn back to Jake Browning — drove further movement. On that news, the line moved to 3, where it currently sits. A few 2.5s remain on the board, but all market-making books have taken this to the key field-goal number.

Play: Bears -3 (-105 at DraftKings)

The Bears had their four-game win and cover streak snapped last week in Baltimore — oddly enough, against a backup quarterback. They shouldn’t face the same challenges against the Bengals’ defense that they did against the Ravens.

Movement: Total 45 → 48.5

There’s been a significant move on the total between the 49ers and Giants, with a 3.5-point adjustment upward from the opening number. The initial move came early in the week, but a public pick release pushed the total even higher — from 47.5 to as high as 49. It has since settled at 48.5, though you can still find an extra half-point in either direction depending on which side you prefer.

Movement: Titans +10 → +8.5

It’s been one-way action on this spread, driving the line down by a point and a half. After opening as 10-point favorites, the Chargers have seen the number dip below double digits at most market-making books. A few 10s remain on the board, though they’re heavily juiced. The Titans have been active in the trade market, but primarily from the standpoint of accumulating future assets rather than bolstering the current roster.

Play: Chargers -9.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

As the PFF NFL Show noted this week, the Titans aren’t exactly in a position to be trading away cornerbacks — yet here they are. That reality should set up Justin Herbert for continued success in this matchup.

Movement: Raiders +3.5 → +2.5

Both teams enter this matchup fresh off their bye weeks, with Jacksonville heading to the desert looking to snap a two-game losing streak. After opening as 3.5-point road favorites, the Jaguars saw the line quickly drop to 3. From there, movement was limited until Wednesday evening, when the number dipped below a field goal at some books. The market is now split between 2.5 and 3, with reasonable prices available on both sides.

Movement: Chiefs -1 → -2

A potential regular-season game of the year, as usual, features the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills. In recent seasons, the tide has shifted in favor of Buffalo, which often entered this matchup as a slight favorite. With Patrick Mahomes back in MVP form, that script has flipped — Kansas City is now a 2-point road favorite.

We’re starting to see a few 2.5s appear at select books, but not enough to move the market consensus. This number almost certainly won’t reach 3, and it’s unlikely to move much in the opposite direction either. The total has also ticked up by 1.5 points, from 51 to 52.5 — the second-highest total on the board this week.